MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 24 Issue 2 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my 1 – 28 February 2019 HIGHLIGHTS acknowledge the rising risk of an number earlier this month. It was in FOCUS interest-rate cut when it delivers its large part the result of a big upward first policy decision of the year. revision of construction data for the While Governor Adrian Orr is remote Yamal region, where a large • Global slowdown leaves growth expected to hold the official cash rate liquefied natural gas facility was weakest since financial crisis at a record-low 1.75 percent on finished last year. (13 February, • US-China trade war: UN warns Wednesday and signal no change for Bloomberg) of ‘massive’ impact of tariff hike some time, he could concede there’s • Malaysian economic growth an increasing possibility of looser US economic growth continues to slow: US economic growth slowed to beats forecasts policy as global growth concerns mount. Traders have ramped up bets an annualised rate of 2.6% in the • Malaysia-China bilateral trade up final three months of 2018, figures 13% in 2018 on a rate cut and are now pricing a 90 percent chance of one by November, show. However, the reading was • Strategic Kudat could become a swaps data show. (12 February, ahead of expectations for a rate of successful regional port – Shafie Bloomberg) between 1.8% and 2%. The pace of • Record RM8.3 bln from Sabah growth was below the 3.4% rate seen tourism in 2018 German economy narrowly avoids in the third quarter thanks to a recession: Germany’s economy just slowdown in consumer spending. The INTERNATIONAL about avoided falling into recession growth figures had originally been ANTARABANGSA during the final three months of last due to be released in January, but year. Europe’s largest economy were delayed because of the 35-day registered zero growth during the Global slowdown leaves growth US government shutdown. (28 fourth quarter of 2018, the country’s February, BBC News) weakest since financial crisis: Federal Statistics Office said. That The global economy’s loss of means it avoided two consecutive Australian construction work digs momentum has left expansion now quarters of contraction, which is the a hole for the economy in fourth looking like its weakest since the usual definition of a recession. A quarter: Construction spending in global financial crisis, a development weak trade performance dragged on Australia took a surprise spill last that’s already sparked a dramatic the economy, and consumer spending quarter as infrastructure came off the shift among central banks. A UBS remained subdued. (14 February, boil and home building hit a one-year model suggests world growth slowed BBC News) low, a disappointing result that adds to a 2.1 percent annualized pace at to signs of a struggling economy. It the end of 2018, which it says would Euro weakens as slowdown fears was the second straight quarter of be the weakest since 2008-2009. An grow: The euro fell on Tuesday as sharp falls and challenges the dogged early reading for this quarter shows a investors shifted their focus from optimism of the Reserve Bank of slight improvement, but the numbers progress in U.S.-China trade talks to Australia (RBA) that growth will still mean there’ll need to be a an economic slowdown in the pick up this year. The value of dramatic improvement to reach the eurozone. The single currency was construction work done slid 3.1 3.2 percent pace UBS has forecast for buoyed on Monday as expectations percent in the December quarter, data the three months as a whole. (18 grew for an easing of the U.S.-China from the Australian Bureau of February, Bloomberg) trade conflict. But euro zone bond Statistics showed. (27 February, US-China trade war: UN warns of yields, notably those of German Reuters) bunds, fell amid the cloudy European ‘massive’ impact of tariff hike: A Sterling slips ahead of UK GDP, UN trade official has warned a US economic outlook, and that weighed on the euro. (19 February, Reuters) manufacturing data: Sterling fell plan to raise tariffs on Chinese goods towards $1.29 on Monday as traders next month would have “massive” Russia’s growth expectations fall trimmed their positions before the implications for the global economy. back to earth: Whether or not release of a batch of economic data The US plans to increase tariffs on you believe the Russian Economy following signs the British economy Chinese goods if the two sides fail to grew 2.3 percent last year, beating the is slowing down in the face of Brexit make progress on a trade deal by 1 most optimistic expectations, the uncertainty. Manufacturing output for March. The comments followed a Russian Economy Ministry doesn’t December, as well as GDP data for report by a UN trade agency on the want anyone to expect a repeat in impact of the US-China trade war. It the last three months of 2018, will be 2019. That doesn’t mean there will be released at 0930 GMT. Analysts said Asian countries are likely to no baffling statistical anomalies this polled by Reuters are expecting suffer most from protectionism. (5 year, only that, realistically, February, BBC News) there’s no reason for a rapid quarter-on-quarter economic growth of 0.2 percent against 0.6 percent for New Zealand’s Central Bank could economic expansion. Russia’s official statistical agency, Rosstat, where the previous quarter. (11 February, be the next to turn dovish: New Reuters) Zealand’s central bank may a new boss took over in December, reported the surprising growth 1 – 28 February 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 industrial production growth in January. The headline Nikkei NATIONAL December 2018 hints at a stronger Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing NASIONAL economic expansion for Malaysia in Managers’ Index (PMI), a composite the fourth quarter of 2018, according single-figure indicator of Malaysia-China bilateral trade up to MIDF Research. Led by stronger manufacturing performance, 13% in 2018: Bilateral trade between manufacturing sector performance, registered 47.9 in January, up from Malaysia and China climbed to an the country’s industrial production 46.8 in December, extending the all-new high in 2018, rising 13% to index (IPI) for December 2018 rose current period of contraction to four US$108.6bil (RM443bil) from by 3.4%, beating a Bloomberg survey months. Export sales also declined, US$96bil (RM392bil) in 2017, with of 2.7%. In November 2018, the IPI while easing demand pressures the number of Chinese visitors into increased at a slower pace of 2.6%. enabled firms to reduce backlogs of Malaysia increasing 29% to 2.94 MIDF Research expects Malaysia’s work. IHS Market said in a statement million last year. Malaysia-China gross domestic product (GDP) to that “Although there was a marginal Business Council chairman Tan Kok expand at a stronger pace of 5% in up-tick in employment, costs were Wai said overall relations between the fourth quarter of 2018, “given cut elsewhere as input buying Malaysia and China remain on the that overall IPI growth averaged at decreased and stocks were scaled right track despite the controversies 3.5% year-on-year, the fastest since back”. (5 February, The Star) regarding some local large scale second-quarter 2018”. (12 February, December industrial output up projects in the country. “Today, The Star) under the circumstances of the 3.4%, exceeds forecast: Stronger ceaseless China-US trade war and the Guan Eng upbeat on economy manufacturing growth enabled the uncertainty of the global economic after January CPI data, more jobs industrial production index (IPI) for outlook, we must remain cautious yet created: Finance Minister Lim Guan December, 2018 to increase by 3.4%, optimistic and work diligently in a Eng expects the country to grow a exceeding a Bloomberg survey of a practical and realistic spirit,” he said further 4.9% this year amid a decline 2.7%. Chief Statistician Datuk Seri in his speech at a Chinese New Year in inflationary pressure while an Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said on luncheon yesterday. (19 February, additional 41,000 quality Monday the growth in December The Star) manufacturing jobs are expected to 2018 was driven by the increase in be created in the next two years. In a manufacturing index (4.4%), Malaysian economic growth statement released on Sunday, he said electricity index (2.7%) and the beats forecasts: Malaysia’s the January 2019 Consumer Price mining index (1.0%). Manufacturing economic growth in the fourth Index (CPI) – which fell to the lowest sector output increased by 4.4% in quarter of 2018 (4Q18) has surpassed in nearly 10 years – did not arise December 2018 after expanding by expectations, as the country’s gross from any weakening of demand or 3.7% in November 2018. domestic product (GDP) grew 4.7% economic growth. “Instead, the price Underpinning manufacturing’s year-on-year (y-o-y). This marks the decline was largely caused by supply growth in December were electrical economy’s first acceleration in factors in the form of cheaper input and electronic equipment products growth over the last one year, cost, specifically cheaper fuel (7.2%), transport equipment and following the continued slowdown in prices,” he said. (24 February, The other manufactures products (7.0%) GDP growth after 3Q17 where it Star) and petroleum, chemical, rubber and registered a 6.2% growth. In 4Q17, it plastic products (3.6%). (11 Malaysia’s inflation to average grew by 5.9%.