Government of Maharashtra Hydrology Project II Water Resources Department IBRD Loan No: 4749-IN Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) Interim Report March 2012 DHI Water Environment Health Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and DHI (India) Water & Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Environment Pvt Ltd Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & 3rd Floor, NSIC Bhawan, Okhla ROS) Industrial Estate New Delhi 11 00 20 India Tel:+911147034500 +91 11 4703 4500 Interim Report Fax:+911147034501 +91 11 4703 4501 [email protected] March 2012 www.dhigroup.com Client Client’s representative Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology Superintending Engineer Project Project No Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in 63800247 Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) Authors Date: Guna Paudyal 27 March 2012 Finn Hansen Gregers Jorgensen Approved by Dhananjay Pandit Hans G. Enggrob Revision Description By Checked Approved Date Key words Classification Real Time, Streamflow, Flood, Forecasting, Open Reservoir Operation, Forecast Models, Hydrology, Hydraulics, River Basin, Capacity Building Internal Proprietary Distribution No of copies Client: PDF File 10 DHI: PDF file (+1 CD) Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS List of Acronyms and Abbreviations BSD Basin Simulation Division CWC Central Water Commission DA Data Assimilation DAS Data Acquisition System DEM Digital Elevation Model DSS Decision Support System FCL Flood Control Level FCS Full Climate Station FMO Flood meteorological Office (of IMD) GIS Geographic Information System GMRBA Godavari Marathwada River Basin Agency GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite GoI Government of India GoM Government of Maharashtra GPRS General Packet Radio Service GSM Global System for Mobile Communications HD Hydrodynamic HIS Hydrological Information system HP-II Hydrology Project Phase II IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMD Indian Meteorological Department KRBA Konkan River Basin Agency MERI Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute MKRBA Maharashtra Krishna River Basin Agency MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MoWR Ministry of Water Resources NIH National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NRSA National Remote Sensing Organisation NWP Numerical Weather Prediction QA Quality Assurance QAP Quality Assurance Plan QC Quality Control QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (of IMD) RMSE Root Mean Square Error ROS Reservoir Operation System Interim Report i Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS RR Rainfall-Runoff RS Remote Sensing RTDAS Real Time Data Acquisition System RTDSS Real Time Decision Support System RTSF Real Time Streamflow Forecasting SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SO Structure Operation SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission TKRBA Tapi Khandesh River Basin Agency VRBA Vidarbha River Basin Agency WALMI Water and Land Management Institute WB World Bank WRD Water Resources Department ii Interim Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS Table of Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ......................................................................... i 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................... V 2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 2.1 Features of RTSF & ROS .............................................................................. 1 2.2 Database-Models Integration ......................................................................... 1 2.3 Interim Report ................................................................................................ 2 3 PROGRESS REPORT ........................................................................................ 3 4 DATABASE DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................. 7 4.1 Data Types..................................................................................................... 7 4.2 Historical Time Series Data............................................................................ 7 4.3 Irrigation data ................................................................................................. 8 4.4 Real Time Data .............................................................................................. 9 4.5 Static and Annual Data ................................................................................ 10 4.6 Database Software ...................................................................................... 11 4.7 Database Design ......................................................................................... 13 4.8 Communications .......................................................................................... 19 4.9 Database Management ................................................................................ 19 5 MATHEMATICS MODELS ................................................................................ 21 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 21 5.2 Modelling Software ..................................................................................... 21 5.3 Hydrology ..................................................................................................... 21 5.4 River Basin................................................................................................... 23 5.5 River and Flood Plain ................................................................................... 24 5.6 Model Integration ......................................................................................... 25 6 RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL ........................................................................... 27 6.1 Model Setup ................................................................................................. 27 6.2 Model Outputs .............................................................................................. 39 6.3 Calibration .................................................................................................... 39 6.4 Further Work ................................................................................................ 48 7 RIVER BASIN SIMULATION MODEL ............................................................... 49 7.1 Model Setup ................................................................................................. 49 Interim Report iii Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS 7.2 Model Outputs .............................................................................................. 52 7.3 Further Work ................................................................................................ 53 8 HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL .............................................................................. 55 8.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 55 8.2 Model Setup ................................................................................................. 55 8.3 Calibration .................................................................................................... 74 8.4 Reservoir Operation ..................................................................................... 76 8.5 Further Work ................................................................................................ 79 9 FORECASTING MODEL.................................................................................. 80 9.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 80 9.2 Overview of the Forecasting and Operation System .................................... 82 9.3 System Configuration ................................................................................... 84 9.4 On-line Operation ......................................................................................... 85 9.5 Reservoir Operation ..................................................................................... 88 9.6 Scenario Management ................................................................................. 89 9.7 Communication WEB Portal ......................................................................... 91 10 CAPACITY BUILDING ..................................................................................... 95 11 FURTHER WORK ............................................................................................ 96 11.1 Data Related work ........................................................................................ 97 11.2 Updating & further development of the models ............................................ 97 11.3 Implementation of the RTSF & ROS ............................................................ 97 11.4 Support to Capacity Development ................................................................ 97 12 REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 99 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................. 100 A.1 Sample Satellite Image ................................................................................ 101 A.2 Status of Reservoir Data .............................................................................