Global Exploration and Production Capacity for Platinum-Group Metals From 1995 Through 2015 Scientific Investigations Report 2012–5164 Version 1.1 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover. Map of the world showing the locations where platinum-group metals were produced in 2010 (red circles), where facilities were being developed (yellow squares), and where sites were at such an advanced stage of exploration that the deposit was likely to begin production by 2015 (green triangles). Base derived from Global Multiresolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 and data are from Johnson Matthey plc (2010) and Butler (2011, p. 16–23). Global Exploration and Production Capacity for Platinum-Group Metals From 1995 Through 2015 By David R. Wilburn Scientific Investigations Report 2012–5164 Version 1.1 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2012 Revised and republished December 2012 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Wilburn, D.R., 2012, Global exploration and production capacity for platinum-group metals from 1995 through 2015 (version 1.1): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012–5164, 26 p., at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ sir/2012/5164/. iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 Site Selection Methodology .........................................................................................................................4 Site Assessments...........................................................................................................................................5 South Africa ...........................................................................................................................................5 Russia....................................................................................................................................................17 Zimbabwe .............................................................................................................................................18 Canada ..................................................................................................................................................18 United States .......................................................................................................................................19 Other Areas ..........................................................................................................................................19 Estimates of Primary PGM Capacity .........................................................................................................20 Factors Affecting PGM Capacity and Supply ..........................................................................................22 Summary and Conclusions .........................................................................................................................23 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................24 Figures 1. Map showing locations where platinum-group metals were produced in 2010, where facilities were being developed, and where sites were at such an advanced stage of exploration that the deposit was likely to begin production of PGMs by 2015 ...................3 2. Chart showing worldwide production from countries producing significant refined platinum from 1995 through 2010 ................................................................................................4 3. Chart showing production capacity of platinum and a timeline of significant events related to changes in platinum capacity in South Africa .....................................................14 4. Chart showing estimated global production capacity for platinum from 1995 through 2015 ...............................................................................................................................................20 5. Chart showing estimated global production capacity for palladium from 1995 through 2015 ...............................................................................................................................................21 6. Chart showing average annual nominal prices of selected metals from 1995 through 2010 ...............................................................................................................................................23 Tables 1. Operations included for analysis in this report........................................................................6 2. Operations not included for statistical analysis in this report but that may become operational between 2016 and 2020. .......................................................................................10 3. Operations unlikely to come into production before 2020 ...................................................11 4. Selected South African platinum-group metal operations and projects ..........................12 iv Conversion Factors Multiply By To obtain Length meter (m) 3.281 foot (ft) kilometer (km) 0.6214 mile (mi) Mass kilogram (kg) 2.205 pound avoirdupois (lb) ton, metric (t) 1.102 ton, short (2,000 lb) Abbreviations BEE Black Economic Empowerment NLEV National Low Emission Vehicle Program NOx nitrogen oxides PGM platinum-group metals UG2 Upper Group Reef seam 2 USGS U.S. Geological Survey Global Exploration and Production Capacity for Platinum-Group Metals From 1995 Through 2015 By David R. Wilburn Abstract catalytic converters, electrical components, and jewelry has increased since 1995 so that recycled PGMs recovered from Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are required in a variety these products accounted for about 30 percent of the supply of of commercial, industrial, and military applications for many platinum worldwide and 29 percent of the supply of palladium existing and emerging technologies, yet the United States is worldwide in 2010. highly dependent on foreign sources of PGMs. Information Economic and geopolitical conditions have influenced on global exploration for PGMs since 1995 has been used PGM supply and demand. The global recession of 2008 in this study as a basis for identifying locations where the and 2009 temporarily decreased demand for PGMs and industry has determined that exploration has provided data constrained PGM mine exploration and development, at sufficient to warrant development of a new mine or expansion least through 2010. Legislation regulating the structure of an existing operation or where a significant increase in of the mining sector has affected mining in Russia, South capacity for PGMs is anticipated by 2015. Discussions include Africa, and Zimbabwe. Stricter vehicle emissions standards an overview of the industry and the selected sites, factors in established markets since the 1980s have led to mandatory affecting mineral supply, and circumstances leading to the use of pollution control devices, such as catalytic converters, development of mineral properties with the potential to affect that contain PGMs and are required on vehicles in expanding mineral supply. Of the 52 sites or regional operations that were markets, such as China and India. considered in this analysis, 16 sites were producing before It is expected that South Africa, Russia, Canada, and 1995, 28 sites commenced production from 1995 through Zimbabwe will continue to be the principal sources of PGM 2010, and 8 sites were expected to begin production from 2011 at least for the next decade. Based on this review of the PGM through 2015 if development plans came to fruition. industry, the world’s platinum capacity, expressed in terms The United States imports PGMs primarily from Canada, of recoverable platinum metal, increased from 1995 through Russia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe to meet increasing 2010 by 77,000 kilograms (kg) in South Africa, 9,000 kg in demand for these materials in a variety of specialized and Zimbabwe, 6,000 kg in Russia, 2,000 kg in Botswana, and high-tech applications. Feed sources of PGMs are changing 2,000 kg in Canada. For the same period, palladium capacity in South Africa and Russia, which together accounted for worldwide increased by 44,000 kg in South Africa, 22,000 kg about 89 percent of platinum production and 82 percent of in Russia, 8,000 kg in Canada, 8,000 kg in the United States, palladium production in 2009. A greater