Interagency Fratricide Policy Failures in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia VICKI J. RAST Major, USAF Air University Press Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6615 June 2004 Air University Library Cataloging Data Rast, Vicki J., 1966- Interagency fratricide : policy failures in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia / Vicki J. Rast. p. : ill. ; cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-58566-126-0 1. War—Termination. 2. United States—Government policy—Decision making. 3. Civil-military relations—United States. 4. Military art and science—Decision mak- ing. 5. Administrative agencies—United States. 6. Public administration—Decision making. I. Title. 341.66––dc22 Disclaimer Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited. Air University Press 131 West Shumacher Avenue Maxwell AFB AL 36112–6615 http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil ii Where there is no vision, the people perish. Proverbs 29:18 (KJV) For all who have dedicated their lives to the pursuit of security . especially those who have made the ultimate sacrifice. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Contents Chapter Page DISCLAIMER . ii DEDICATION . iii FOREWORD . xi ABOUT THE AUTHOR . xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . xv INTRODUCTION . xix PART I Framing the Problem 1 CONFLICT TERMINATION WITHIN A BUREAUCRATIC ENVIRONMENT . 3 Interagency Decision Making via Negotiation . 5 The Efficacy of the Policy-Making Process . 14 Outline of the Study . 17 Implications . 19 Notes . 20 2 RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY: INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP CHOICE . 27 Decision-Making Approaches: Units of Analysis as Delimiters . 28 Rational Choice Theory . 29 Groups as “Less than Rational” Actors . 41 Rationale for Alternative Approaches . 48 Notes . 49 3 CONFLICT TERMINATION MODELS . 61 Points or Processes? . 62 Rational Actor Approaches . 66 Summary . 79 Notes . 80 v Chapter Page 4 THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SYSTEM . 85 Allison’s Bureaucratic Politics Approach . 85 US Government Decision Making . 92 National Security Policy Making . 94 Building Toward New Understanding . 121 Notes . 122 5 INTERAGENCY FRATRICIDE: BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND PRACTICE . 129 A Basic Conceptual Framework . 129 Frameworks and Models . 130 Indicators, the Hierarchical Model, and Data . 146 Preliminary Conclusions . 148 Complementary Analyses . 160 Notes . 162 PART II Analysis and Findings 6 DYNAMIC THEMES: LEADERSHIP, NEGOTIATION, AND DOMESTIC POLITICS . 169 Leadership . 169 Organizational Culture . 174 Communication Patterns . 178 Personal Relations and Networking . 186 Decision Making as Negotiation . 188 Domestic Politics . 192 Interpretation of Findings . 197 Notes . 198 7 CONTEXTUAL PARAMETERS: ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CHANNEL INTERAGENCY DYNAMICS . 209 Strategic Vision and Planning Processes . 209 Protection of Institutional Equities . 225 vi Chapter Page Interpretation of Findings . 234 Notes . 238 8 CROSSCUTTING EFFECTS: ROLES AND MISSIONS AND MEDIA INFLUENCE . 245 Clarity of Roles and Missions . 245 Media Influence . 251 Interim Summary . 258 Notes . 258 PART III Conflict Termination Policy Development 9 DEVELOPING THE ENDGAME—TERMINATION POLICY FOR THE PERSIAN GULF AND BOSNIA . 265 Crisis Analysis . 265 Summary: Crisis Analysis . 274 Desired End State . 276 Termination Criteria . 283 Termination Strategy . 287 Synergistic Effects . 296 Notes . 300 10 TERMINATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT . 313 The Interagency Process: Synthesizing Process and Substance . 314 Dynamic Themes and Interagency Dynamics: Leadership, Decision Making as Negotiation, and Domestic Politics . 316 Crosscutting Effects: Roles and Missions and Media Influence . 318 Contextual Parameters: “Strategic Vision and Planning Processes” and Institutional Equities . 320 Factors Creating Interagency Conflict . 322 vii Chapter Page Decision Making by Negotiation . 322 Policy Outcomes: Interagency Conflict Leads to War Termination . 327 Improving Conflict Termination Policy Development . 329 Envisaging a More Useful Termination Framework . 331 Implications of Relationships across Interagency Conflict . 332 Conclusion . 336 Notes . 337 APPENDIX . 343 ACRONYMS . 361 BIBLIOGRAPHY . 363 INDEX . 441 Illustrations Figure 1 International Crisis: Aligning the Parties in Conflict . 5 2 Crisis Policy-Making Life Cycle . 6 3 NSC Policy-Making Structure: Decision Making as Negotiation . 9 4 Conceptual Relationships across Termination Concepts . 63 5 Staudenmaier’s Strategic Rational Conflict Model . 70 6 Clarke’s Model of US Policy Preferences and Activities toward Conflict . 72 7 Allotey and Others’ Conflict Resolution Framework . 75 viii Figure Page 8 Basic Conceptual Framework . 130 9 Hierarchical Model: A Framework for Data Collection . 131 10 Level of Open Debate (Conceptualization) . 134 11 Level of Open Debate (Findings) . 136 12 Crisis Definition—Perception of Risk (Conceptualization) . 137 13 Crisis Definition—Perception of Risk (Findings) . 138 14 Organizational Communication (Conceptualization) . 140 15 Organizational Communication I (Findings) . 140 16 Agency’s Policy-Making Approach: Interagency Tactics (Conceptualization) . 141 17 Agency’s Policy-Making Approach: Interagency Tactics (Findings) . 142 18 Agency’s Decision-Making Profile: Department Explores Innovative Ideas (Conceptualization) . 143 19 Agency’s Decision-Making Profile: Department Explores Innovative Ideas (Findings) . 144 20 NSC’s Role in the Policy-Making Process (Conceptualization) . 145 21 NSC’s Role in the Policy-Making Process (Findings) . 146 22 Hierarchical Model: A Framework for Data Collection (with Indicators) . 147 ix Figure Page 23 Interagency Conflict: Contextual Parameters, Dynamic Themes, and Crosscutting Effects . 161 24 Organizational Communication II (Findings) . 170 25 Level of Interagency Conflict—A Heuristic Model for Leaders . 332 Tables 1 Participation in National Security Council System Activities . 97 2 Correlational Summary by Core Factor . 149 3 Summary of Findings: Demographic Stratification . 158 4 Emergent Themes Requiring Further Exploration . 159 x Foreword Leaders face enigmatic challenges within our increasingly complex world of international affairs. Foremost among them for the US government is determining how senior officials—policy makers and military commanders—can harness effectively the friction inherent to the interagency policy-making process, doing so in ways that advance US national security during interven- tions into conflicts and wars. Specifically, leaders and decision makers at every level must understand the roles they play in generating and sustaining interagency conflict that detracts from the nation’s capacity to develop sound conflict termination policy, thereby impairing our ability to analyze crises, envision desired end states, formulate termination criteria, and execute termination strategies. To address this issue, we must first understand the sources of that friction, identifying its causes and consequences across the policy-making arena. Interagency Fratricide: Policy Failures in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors that affected both interagency processes and policy outcomes dur- ing the Persian Gulf War (1990–91) and the early stages of the Bosnia crisis (1993–95). Going one-on-one with members of Washington’s policy elite who were involved directly in these two cases, the author demonstrates that the US government’s approach to termination policy proved fragmented and person- ality driven. She systematically presents evidence to support the study’s conclusion, revealing that the nature of the gap xi between diplomats and war fighters will consistently produce policies that bring about cease-fire in the form of war termina- tion, but fail to address the underlying causes and conditions that generated conflict (and, potentially, war). These issues must be resolved if the US government hopes to improve the social and political conditions of those embroiled in conflict while at the same time bolstering a security posture favorable to US interests in the aftermath of intervention. The three sec- tions of this work thematically present the interagency process, the analysis and its findings, and implications for future ter- mination policy development endeavors. This book is the first of its kind. It integrates the real-world experiences of post–Cold War diplomats and war fighters, demonstrating that both need to think in more far-reaching terms regarding the development of conflict termination policy and the interagency’s role therein. As Carl von Clausewitz says, this type of intellectual endeavor must be undertaken “before the first shot is fired.” To accomplish this feat, policy makers must cast aside their institutional and individual personalities to determine what is best for those on whose behalf the United States intervenes—especially when the armed forces are called upon to act in the service of our country. I commend this work to you as a necessary first step in understanding interagency policy making. It’s up to you to bridge the gaps between diplo- mats and war fighters toward creating effective conflict termina- tion policy in the future. RONALD R. FOGLEMAN General, USAF, Retired xii About the Author Maj Vicki J. Rast is a 1988 graduate of the United States Air Force Academy. She received a master’s degree in public admin- istration