NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll October 2015 Iowa Questionnaire Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older? Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Iowa? HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered voters: n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1012, MOE +/- 3.1% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Approve 38 40 43 43 Disapprove 55 54 50 50 Unsure 8 6 7 7 Total 100 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Approve 38 40 43 43 Disapprove 53 52 49 49 Unsure 8 7 8 8 Total 100 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5% If the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Donald Trump 24 29 17 NA Ben Carson 19 22 8 6 Carly Fiorina 8 5 1 NA Jeb Bush 7 6 12 16 Ted Cruz 6 4 4 2 Marco Rubio 6 4 4 6 Bobby Jindal 6 4 1 NA Mike Huckabee 5 3 7 17 Rand Paul 4 5 5 7 Chris Christie 4 2 2 9 John Kasich 3 2 2 NA Rick Santorum 1 1 <1 5 Lindsey Graham 1 <1 1 1 George Pataki <1 <1 <1 NA Jim Gilmore <1 <1 <1 NA Scott Walker NA 5 19 15 Rick Perry NA <1 3 4 Undecided 7 8 14 14 Total 100 100 100 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 1 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=370, MOE +/- 5.1%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=328, MOE +/- 5.4% Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in Iowa (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE WITH A CANDIDATE October 2015 September 2015 PREFERENCE Ben Carson 17 21 Donald Trump 14 12 Carly Fiorina 13 6 Marco Rubio 10 4 Jeb Bush 10 9 Ted Cruz 8 6 Rand Paul 6 3 Mike Huckabee 6 4 Bobby Jindal 5 4 Rick Santorum 3 2 Chris Christie 2 2 John Kasich 2 3 Lindsey Graham 2 1 George Pataki 1 1 Jim Gilmore <1 0 Scott Walker NA 11 Rick Perry NA 2 Undecided 3 8 Total 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5% If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Hillary Clinton 47 48 55 Bernie Sanders 36 37 26 Martin O'Malley 4 4 4 Jim Webb 1 2 2 Lincoln Chafee <1 1 1 Undecided 13 8 13 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=321, MOE +/- 5.5% If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President Joe Biden enters the race): POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Hillary Clinton 33 38 49 68 Bernie Sanders 28 27 25 7 Joe Biden 22 20 10 12 Martin O'Malley 3 4 3 <1 Jim Webb 1 2 1 1 Lincoln Chafee <1 1 <1 NA Undecided 12 8 11 12 Total 100 100 100 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 2 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton? POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 73 67 74 Unfavorable 20 27 20 Unsure 7 6 6 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 35 32 37 Unfavorable 59 61 56 Unsure 5 7 7 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 36 33 37 Unfavorable 58 60 56 Unsure 6 8 7 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Joe Biden? POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 Favorable 75 74 Unfavorable 17 17 Unsure 9 10 Total 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 Favorable 44 42 Unfavorable 44 44 Unsure 12 14 Total 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 Favorable 44 41 Unfavorable 42 42 Unsure 15 17 Total 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%, Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Bernie Sanders? POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 65 65 54 Unfavorable 16 14 15 Unsure 19 21 31 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 37 36 30 Unfavorable 34 29 27 Unsure 29 35 44 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 36 34 28 Unfavorable 33 28 26 Unsure 31 38 46 Total 100 100 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 3 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Jeb Bush? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 49 49 51 Unfavorable 39 37 33 Unsure 11 14 16 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 35 36 34 Unfavorable 50 48 46 Unsure 15 16 20 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 35 34 32 Unfavorable 48 46 46 Unsure 17 19 22 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 52 58 45 Unfavorable 42 33 44 Unsure 6 9 11 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 35 36 32 Unfavorable 58 55 60 Unsure 7 9 8 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 34 36 31 Unfavorable 58 55 60 Unsure 8 9 9 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Carly Fiorina? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 Favorable 57 Unfavorable 16 Unsure 26 Total 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 Favorable 38 Unfavorable 25 Unsure 37 Total 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 Favorable 35 Unfavorable 25 Unsure 40 Total 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 4 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Ben Carson? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 Favorable 77 Unfavorable 11 Unsure 12 Total 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 Favorable 50 Unfavorable 22 Unsure 27 Total 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 Favorable 47 Unfavorable 22 Unsure 31 Total 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression