Disruption Management in the Defense Ammunition Industrial Base By Saheed A. Hamid B.S. in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, December 1989, New York Institute of Technology M.S. in Aeronautical Science, May 1999, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of School of Engineering and Applied Science of The George Washington University in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy January 31, 2014 Dissertation directed by E. Lile Murphree Professor Emeritus of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Thomas Andrew Mazzuchi Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering The School of Engineering and Applied Science of The George Washington University certifies that Saheed A. Hamid has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of November 5, 2013. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Disruption Management in the Defense Ammunition Industrial Base Saheed A. Hamid Dissertation Research Committee: E. Lile Murphree, Professor Emeritus of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Dissertation Co-Director Thomas Andrew Mazzuchi, Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Dissertation Co-Director Shahram Sarkani, Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Committee Member ii Dedication To my parents, had it not been for their example, support, and sacrifices I would have never gotten to this point in my life. And to my wife, my biggest fan, without whose unwavering love and support I may have ended up flipping burgers for a living! iii Acknowledgements Very few endeavors in life are individual. The sum of knowledge and experiences come from the people with whom we have the privilege to interact, especially those that enrich or enlighten by their advice and experiences. To those friends and colleagues that have provided support, feedback and candid criticism over the years, I am eternally grateful! And to my professors, who exhibited immense patience and flexibility through military deployments and the demands of a full time career while enrolled in this program, I thank you. Completing a program leading to a Ph.D. while trying to balance research, studies, work, and family commitment is, to say the least, challenging. Your support, commitment, and understanding are sincerely appreciated. iv Abstract of Dissertation Disruption Management in the Defense Ammunition Industrial Base Since September 2001, the Department of Defense (DOD) has focused a lot of attention on its capabilities to fight and prevail in multiple, simultaneous global conflicts. To successfully meet the demands of such a mission, a consistently responsive Defense Ammunition Industrial Base (DAIB) that delivers unique supplies through a secure supply chain is essential. Military supplies frequently have unique functions that are not widely used elsewhere; often, only one or limited numbers of producers of this materiel exists, many of which are single points of failure (SPOF). Examination of current DAIB systems reveals that the critical importance of this aspect of DOD success is often poorly addressed. In addition, methods for evaluating threats to what should be a secure supply chain are shown to be inadequate. If DAIB facilities are destroyed or severely damaged by acts of terrorism, natural or manmade disasters, what would occur? With limited alternatives for replacements, what recourse does the military have for acquiring these one-of-a-kind supplies? If ammunition is the lifeblood of the fighting forces, then having the appropriate types available in the required quantities is essential to combat effectiveness. This paper focuses on the DAIB by taking a closer look at its history and the risks to existing facilities, which are created by their current locations and facility vulnerabilities. Within this discussion, several possible solutions arise, with developing a redundant capability within the DAIB being the most viable. v Table of Contents Dedication .......................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ iv Abstract ............................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... vi List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix List of Symbols ................................................................................................................... x List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1 – Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Description of the Problem ....................................................................................... 4 1.2 Hypothesis ............................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Research Purpose .................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Significance ............................................................................................................. 10 1.5 Scope ....................................................................................................................... 11 1.6 Organization ............................................................................................................ 11 1.7 Relevance to Systems Engineering ......................................................................... 11 1.8 Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 13 Chapter 2 – Literature Review .......................................................................................... 14 2.1 Infrastructure Assessments ...................................................................................... 15 2.2 Threats ..................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.1 Terrorism Threat ............................................................................................... 19 2.2.2 Natural Disasters............................................................................................... 20 2.3 Possible Solutions ................................................................................................... 22 2.4 Supply Chain Disruptions ....................................................................................... 25 Chapter 3 – Background ................................................................................................... 27 3.1 Mission and History ................................................................................................ 27 3.2 A Brief History of Strategic Disruptions................................................................. 30 vi 3.3 Decline and Consolidation ...................................................................................... 32 Chapter 4 – Analysis of Current Threats .......................................................................... 36 4.1 Risk Assessment ...................................................................................................... 38 4.2 Interdiction by Terrorist .......................................................................................... 40 4.3 Earthquakes ............................................................................................................. 44 4.4 Hurricanes ............................................................................................................... 49 4.5 Tornadoes ................................................................................................................ 52 4.6 Disease, Illness and Natural Disasters .................................................................... 59 Chapter 5 – Analysis of Possible Solutions ...................................................................... 62 5.1 Analysis of Possible Solutions ................................................................................ 62 5.2 Systems Engineering and Design ............................................................................ 62 5.3 Commercial Off the Shelf ....................................................................................... 63 5.4 Stockpile (Storage) .................................................................................................. 66 Chapter 6 – Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 71 6.1 Dual Sources ........................................................................................................... 74 6.2 Application of CARVER ........................................................................................ 77 6.3 Future Research ....................................................................................................... 84