Project No. 18003094 Final Report Study on climate change impact assessment for the design, construction, maintenance and operation of Rail Baltica railway Tartu-Rīga-Vilnius 15-02-2019 The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Study on climate change impact assessment for the design, construction, maintenance and operation of Rail Baltica railway. Final report. Table of Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 2.1. General description of the Study ............................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2. Scope of the Study ........................................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.3. Study stages .................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 WP1 – Analysis if climate projections, relevant studies and strategies, sensitivity assessment ..................... 14 WP2 – Risk identification and assessment, vulnerability assessment ....................................................................... 19 WP3 – Adaptation option development .............................................................................................................................. 24 Organization ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 3.1. Expert group involved with the Study .................................................................................................................................. 26 3.2. General overview of the companies involved ................................................................................................................... 27 Climate variables and hazards considered in the Study ............................................................................................................ 28 4.1. Historical data of relevant climate variables and hazards ............................................................................................. 28 Temperatures .................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Precipitation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 35 Snowfall and snow cover ........................................................................................................................................................... 43 Floods ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 48 Landslides ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 Wind ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64 Thunder ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 80 Freezing rain, glaze and hail ...................................................................................................................................................... 82 Frost penetration of soil .............................................................................................................................................................. 89 Fog................................................................................................................................................................................................. 93 Humidity ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 96 Wildfire ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 98 4.2. Future projections of relevant climate variables and hazards ................................................................................... 102 Climate change trends in Estonia ......................................................................................................................................... 103 Climate change trends in Latvia ............................................................................................................................................ 103 Climate change trends in Lithuania ..................................................................................................................................... 104 Temperatures ................................................................................................................................................................................ 105 Precipitation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 112 Snowfall and snow cover ......................................................................................................................................................... 118 Project No. 18003094 page 3/200 Study on climate change impact assessment for the design, construction, maintenance and operation of Rail Baltica railway. Final report. Floods ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 121 Landslides ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 121 Wind ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 122 Thunder ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 123 Frost penetration of soil ...................................................................................................................................................... 123 Fog............................................................................................................................................................................................... 123 Humidity ................................................................................................................................................................................... 123 Wildfires..................................................................................................................................................................................... 124 Sensitivity assessment ........................................................................................................................................................................... 125 Vulnerability assessment ...................................................................................................................................................................... 128 Risk assessment ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 152 Adaptation options ................................................................................................................................................................................ 166 8.1. Adaptation measures by implementation ........................................................................................................................ 190 8.2. Rail Baltica Weather Service principles ............................................................................................................................... 192 References ............................................................................................................................................................................................................