DOE/EIA-0484(2004) International Energy Outlook 2004 April 2004 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Conti, Director, International, Economic and Green- Energy Information Administration (EIA). General house Gases Division (202/586-4430). Specific questions questions concerning the contents of the report should about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman be referred to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222), Director, (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, or John World Energy Consumption . Linda Doman ([email protected], 202/586-1041) Residential Energy Use. John Cymbalsky ([email protected], 202/586-4815) Commercial Energy Use. Erin Boedecker ([email protected], 202/586-4791) Industrial Energy Use . T. Crawford Honeycutt ([email protected], 202/586-1420) Macroeconomic Assumptions . Nasir Khilji ([email protected], 202/586-1294) World Oil Markets . G. Daniel Butler ([email protected], 202/586-9503) Transportation Energy Demand . Aloulou Fawzi ([email protected], 202/586-7818) Natural Gas . Phyllis Martin ([email protected], 202/586-9592) Qatar LNG . Aloulou Fawzi ([email protected], 202/586-7818) Coal. Michael Mellish ([email protected], 202/586-2136) Electricity . Linda Doman ([email protected], 202/586-1041) Small Wind Power. Zia Haq ([email protected], 202/586-2869) Deregulated Power Markets . James Hewlett ([email protected], 202/586-9536) Environmental Issues. Janice Poling ([email protected], 202/586-3823) Electronic Access and Related Reports The IEO2004 will be available on CD-ROM and the EIA Home Page (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html) by May 2004, including text, forecast tables, and graphics. To download the entire publication in Portable Doc- ument Format (PDF), go to ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/pdf/international/0484(2004).pdf. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows: National Energy Information Center, EI-30 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building Washington, DC 20585 Telephone: 202/586-8800 E-mail: [email protected] TTY: For people who are deaf World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov or hard of hearing: 202/586-1181 Gopher Site: gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2004 Contents Preface. ix Highlights . 1 World Energy and Economic Outlook. 7 Outlook for Primary Energy Consumption. 7 Energy End Use . 10 Outlook for Carbon Dioxide Emissions . 13 World Economic Outlook . 17 Alternative Growth Cases . 24 Trends in Energy Intensity. 25 References . 25 World Oil Markets . 27 World Oil Prices . 29 World Outlook for Oil Use in the Transportation Sector . 29 The Composition of World Oil Supply. 35 Worldwide Petroleum Trade in the Reference Case . 40 Other Views of Prices and Production . 41 References . 44 Natural Gas . 47 Reserves and Resources . 48 Regional Activity. 50 References . 71 Coal . 75 Reserves . 76 Regional Consumption . 77 Trade. 87 References . 93 Electricity . 101 Primary Fuel Use for Electricity Generation . 102 Regional Developments. 108 References . 131 Environmental Issues and World Energy Use . 137 Global Outlook for Carbon Dioxide Emissions . 137 Issues in Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions Policy . 138 Abatement of Conventional Pollutants from Energy Use . 145 References . 158 Appendixes A. Reference Case Projections . 161 B. High Economic Growth Case Projections . 179 C. Low Economic Growth Case Projections . 195 D. Projections of Oil Production Capacity and Oil Production in Three Cases . 211 E. Projections of Nuclear Generating Capacity . ..