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AS_0319_3793_print.inddUntitled-2 1 1 29/03/20193/28/19 2:34 09:20 PM Contents Winter 2021 Vol.12 Ed.1 10 4 ABOUT OMFIF 26 WHY RISING PUBLIC DEBT WON’T DRIVE 5 LEADER COUNTRIES INTO DIFFICULTIES Christian Kopf 6 REVIEW WORLDVIEW COVER STORY 28 10 REASONS WHY RENMINBI WILL KEEP 10 IN THE LINE OF FIRE ON RISING David Marsh David Marsh 15 ECB MAIN TASK IS TO FOLLOW 30 DON’T OVERPLAY THE RIGHT POLICIES DOLLAR’S DECLINE IN 2021 Danae Kyriakopoulou Mark Sobel 16 SCEPTICISM OPENS DOOR FOR 31 ERA OF LOW INFLATION CRYPTOCURRENCIES COULD LAST FOR Steve Hanke 50 YEARS Meghnad Desai OUTLOOK 2021 17 32 WHY BROWN SHOULD 18 WHAT NEXT FOR RESERVE MANAGERS? BE THE NEW GREEN Massimiliano Castelli Danae Kyriakopoulou 30 19 DIGITAL DYNAMISM WILL FUEL 33 THE CASE FOR A ASIA’S OUTPERFORMANCE EUROPEAN BANKING CHARTER Taimur Baig Ignazio Angeloni 20 BIDEN MUST ADOPT MULTILATERAL 34 A SURGE IN INFLATION IS ON THE TACTICS FOR CHINA POLICY HORIZON Nathan Sheets Juan Castañeda and Tim Congdon 21 AFTER COVID-19, WE REQUIRE A 35 SHEDDING LIGHT ON CHINA’S CAPITAL NEW FORM OF FINANCE INFLOWS Joseph Ding Herbert Poenisch 22 MAKING DIVERSITY COUNT INQUIRY Hani Kablawi 38 OMFIF ADVISERS NETWORK POLL 23 MAKING CBDCS A TRUE AND Ensuring policy harmony TRUSTED CURRENCY Wolfram Seidemann Inquiry 24 BEWARE RISING NEUTRAL RATES James Sweeney 25 SOVEREIGN DEBT CAN BOOST EURO’S Cover illustration: Shonagh Rae RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS @shonaghrae Frank Scheidig 38 In a speech to OMFIF in November, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann stated that central bankers need ‘to make it very clear that we 93% Ensuring are not going to place monetary policy at the OMFIF.ORG serviceWINTER of fiscal policy’, cautioning 2021 that ‘if we BULLETIN 3 create a diferent impression, we are putting policy both our independence and our credibility at risk.’ Do you agree? 7% harmony Poll of OMFIF website users, OMFIF advisory board and Twitter users Yes No Talk of monetary policy at the service of fscal policy is misguided. Both Jens Weidmann correctly frames the issue. As central are at the service of the economy. The real challenge for central banks and banks increasingly engage in quasifscal operations and BTN_Q1.21_0003-005_Bulletin.indd 3 fnance ministries at a time of great fnancial strain is to work together to their balance sheets grow, it is inevitable that they will be29/01/2021 15:27 ensure that monetary and fscal policy are in harmony. subJect to more scrutiny and criticism, particularly in a John Nugee, formerly Bank of England populist age. The growing criticism of technology giants by US politicians of both parties is a powerful example of No, I do not agree. Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary how sentiment can change. To maximise the prospects of measures, and every central bank needs to work in tandem with fscal sustained independence, central banks should focus on authorities to ensure that the macroeconomic policy response to the traditional monetary policy obJectives and crisis prevention current pandemic-driven crisis is as effective as possible. through prudential regulation. Jeffry Frieden, Harvard University Irena Asmundson, State of California Department of Finance Recent history has shown that monetary policy cannot respond to crises alone. Prompt and credible action by central banks has been crucial to stabilising markets, but fscal policy has been slower to respond. The future of central banks will depend on the success Irena Asmundson, State of California Department of Finance they have in being seen as far-sighted thinkers and policy- makers. They should avoid insisting on independence ln the wake of Covid-19, large scale government bond purchases by central for its own sake. Central banks cannot act independently banks and elevated debt have blurred the line between monetary and fscal of government in a time of crisis where the roles of it policy. Authorities in Mauritius have even amended legislation to allow the and the fnance ministry are intertwined. They should central bank to make an outright grant to the government. Such policies, demonstrate their commitment to the long term, especially conducted under the pretext of Covid-19, only undermine the independence the shift toward green. Climate change impacts all the of central banks and increase the risk of fscal dominance. variables on which delivery of their exiting mandates rely. Hemraz Jankee, formerly Bank of Mauritius Andrew Large, Formerly Bank of England 26 BULLETIN WINTER 2021 OMFIF.ORG About OMFIF Dialogue on world finance and economic policy THE Offi cial Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is an independent think tank for central OMFIF banking, economic policy and public investment – a non-lobbying network for best practice in worldwide public-private sector exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – central banks, ON DEMAND sovereign funds and public pension funds – with investable assets of $36tn, equivalent to 45% of world GDP. With offi ces in London and Singapore, OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes – particularly in asset management, capital markets and fi nancial supervision/regulation – relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators and treasuries. OMFIF promotes higher standards, performance-enhancing public-private sector exchanges and a better understanding of the world economy, in an atmosphere of mutual trust. Membership Membership offers insight through two complementary channels – Analysis and Meetings – where members play a prominent role in shaping the agenda. For more information about OMFIF membership, advertising or subscriptions contact membership@omfi f.org Analysis OMFIF Analysis includes commentaries, charts, reports, summaries of meetings and The Bulletin. Contributors include in-house experts, advisers network members and representatives of member institutions and academic and offi cial bodies. To submit an article for consideration contact the editorial team at analysis@omfi f.org Meetings OMFIF Meetings take place within central banks and other offi cial OMFIF On Demand institutions and are held under OMFIF Rules. A full list of past and forthcoming meetings is available on www.omfi f.org/meetings. For more gives you the chance information contact meetings@omfi f.org to listen back to our podcasts and watch OMFIF Advisers Network videos of our past The 173-strong OMFIF advisers network, chaired by Meghnad Desai, is public meetings made up of experts from around the world representing a range of sectors: monetary policy; political economy; capital markets; and industry and investment. They support the work of OMFIF in a variety of ways, including omfi f.org/ondemand contributions to the monthly Bulletin, regular Commentaries, seminars and other OMFIF activities. Membership changes annually owing to rotation. 4 BULLETIN WINTER 2021 OMFIF.ORG BTN_Q1.21_0003-005_Bulletin.indd 4 29/01/2021 15:27 Leader O cial Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Credible questions for 2021 6-9 Snow Hill, London, EC1A 2AY United Kingdom T: +44 (0)20 700 27898 E: enquiries@omfi f.org www.omfi f.org @OMFIF his edition of The Bulletin aims squarely at the big issues that will Tdominate discussions among policy-makers throughout 2021, and BOARD probably for some time after that. David Marsh, Chairman Will infl ation return? Will digital currencies take root? What impact will John Orchard, Chief Executive Offi cer Phil Middleton, Deputy Chairman the Biden administration have on geopolitics, and especially China’s place Maggie Mills in the world? Will the dollar continue to decline? Can sustainable fi nance Jai Arya Mark Burgess make the impact it needs to help combat climate change? Our cover story this quarter (page 10), written by OMFIF’s chairman ADVISORY COUNCIL David Marsh, directly addresses a question that matters hugely to many of Meghnad Desai, Chairman Mark Sobel, US Chairman our members and readers: what is the role of a central bank today? Frank Scheidig, Deputy Chairman It’s easy to consider issues relating to central bank independence as a Xiang Songzuo, Deputy Chairman Hani Kablawi, Deputy Chairman recent phenomenon, brought on by Covid-19. But the virus has amplifi ed a Otaviano Canuto, Aslihan Gedik, concern that has been present since at least the 2008 global fi nancial crisis, William Keegan, John Kornblum, as Marsh and the policy-making luminaries he interviews point out. Norman Lamont, Kingsley Moghalu, Niels Thygesen, Ted Truman, The Bulletin poll on page 38 confi rms that many members of the OMFIF Marsha Vande Berg, Ben Shenglin, Chair, network share the concerns of central bankers that if monetary policy is OMFIF Economists Network placed at the service of fi scal policy, then trust in central banks - the very EDITORIAL TEAM Clive Horwood, Managing Editor credibility that underpins the fi nancial system - is at risk. & Deputy Chief Executive Offi cer The problem, perhaps, is that central banks are now operating in too Simon Hadley, Director, Production many fi elds. This has limited their room for manoeuvre, and also given Fergus McKeown, Subeditor Sarah Moloney, Subeditor their critics more targets to aim at. Danae Kyriakopoulou, Chief Economist The real crunch will come when central banks have to counter & Director, Research Kat Usita, Deputy Head of Research infl ationary pressures again.