Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds Final Report Stephen Garnett, Donald Franklin, Glenn Ehmke, Jeremy VanDerWal, Lauren Hodgson, Chris Pavey, April Reside, Justin Welbergen, Stuart Butchart, Genevieve Perkins and Stephen Williams CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR AUSTRALIAN BIRDS Adaptation strategies for Australian birds Charles Darwin University AUTHORS Stephen Garnett - Charles Darwin University Donald Franklin - Charles Darwin University Glenn Ehmke - BirdLife Australia Jeremy VanDerWal - James Cook University Lauren Hodgson - James Cook University Chris Pavey - CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences April Reside - James Cook University Justin Welbergen - James Cook University Stuart Butchart - BirdLife International, Genevieve Perkins - CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Stephen Williams - James Cook University Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility ISBN: 978-1-925039-14-6 NCCARF Publication 43/13 © Charles Darwin University and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the copyright holder. Please cite this report as: Garnett, S, Franklin, D, Ehmke, G, VanDerWal, J, Hodgson, L, Pavey, C, Reside, A, Welbergen, J, Butchart, S, Perkins, G, Williams, S 2013 Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 109. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with financial support from the Australian Government (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision-makers in government, business and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts. Disclaimer The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth or NCCARF, and neither the Commonwealth nor NCCARF accept responsibility for information or advice contained herein. Cover image/s © 2010 0ystercatcher, Flickr Creative Commons TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 3 1. OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH ..................................................................... 5 2. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS ........................................................... 7 2.1 Selection of taxa needing adaptation strategies .............................................. 7 2.1.1 Scope ...................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Geographic range .................................................................................... 7 2.1.3 Taxonomy ................................................................................................ 7 2.1.4 Habitat groups ......................................................................................... 7 2.2 Exposure and Sensitivity .............................................................................. 10 2.2.1 Exposure ............................................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Sensitivity .............................................................................................. 17 2.3 Adaptation strategies .................................................................................... 20 2.3.1 In-situ management ............................................................................... 23 2.3.2 Assisted colonisation ............................................................................. 26 2.3.3 Ex-situ management .............................................................................. 27 2.3.4 Monitoring and research ........................................................................ 28 2.4 Costs ............................................................................................................ 29 2.4.1 Defined actions ...................................................................................... 29 2.4.2 On-going actions ................................................................................... 30 2.5 Timing .......................................................................................................... 31 2.5.1 Immediate actions ................................................................................. 31 2.5.2 Future actions ........................................................................................ 32 3. RESULTS AND OUTPUTS ................................................................................. 34 3.1 Data sets ...................................................................................................... 34 3.2 Exposure ...................................................................................................... 35 3.2.1 Taxa of terrestrial environments and inland waters ................................ 35 3.2.2 Mangrove taxa ....................................................................................... 41 3.2.3 Marine taxa ............................................................................................ 41 3.2.4 Coastal taxa .......................................................................................... 44 3.2.5 Small island taxa ................................................................................... 45 3.3 Sensitivity ..................................................................................................... 46 Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds i 3.3.1 Sensitivity metrics .................................................................................. 46 3.3.2 Most sensitive taxa ................................................................................ 47 3.3.3 What drives the sensitivity of very highly sensitive taxa? ....................... 53 3.4 Exposure and Sensitivity ............................................................................... 55 3.5 Threatened taxa ............................................................................................ 57 3.6 Adaptation strategies and associated costs .................................................. 58 3.6.1 Immediate actions .................................................................................. 58 3.6.2 Future actions ........................................................................................ 64 3.6.3 Total costs ............................................................................................. 72 4. DISCUSSION ...................................................................................................... 74 4.1 In situ adaptation .......................................................................................... 74 4.2 Assisted colonisation and genetic augmentation ........................................... 75 4.2.1 Genetic augmentation ............................................................................ 75 4.2.2 Assisted colonisation ............................................................................. 75 4.3 Ex situ conservation ...................................................................................... 76 4.4 Uncertainty ................................................................................................... 76 4.4.1 Sensitivity .............................................................................................. 77 4.4.2 Exposure ............................................................................................... 77 4.4.3 Vulnerability ........................................................................................... 78 4.4.4 Actions ................................................................................................... 79 4.4.5 Cost uncertainties .................................................................................. 80 4.5 Costs of climate change adaptation .............................................................. 81 5. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS ............................................... 82 5.1 Knowledge gaps and research directions ...................................................... 82 5.2 Skills gaps .................................................................................................... 83 5.3 Funding gaps ................................................................................................ 83 6. REFERENCES .................................................................................................... 85 APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND BIOCLIMATIC VARIABLES ............... 102 Appendix 1.1: Representative Concentration Pathways used in analysis. ............. 102 Appendix 1.2: Eighteen Global Climate Models used in analysis. .......................... 103 Appendix 1.3: Thirty-year climate coverage ........................................................... 106 Appendix 1.4: Bioclimatic variables ....................................................................... 107 APPENDIX 2. TAXA MODELLED AT A 1 KM SCALE BECAUSE THE TOPOGRAPHIC ROUGHNESS OF TERRAIN THEY OCCUPY IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STEEP CLIMATIC GRADIENTS .............................................................................