Regional Master Transit Plan State of the System and Transit Market Analysis Report October 2015 Prepared by Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. State of the System | i Table of Contents Page 1 Overview.............................................................................................................. 1-1 2 Existing Services ................................................................................................ 2-1 Existing General Public Transit Services............................................................... 2-1 Paratransit and Mobility Management ................................................................. 2-48 Existing Institutional and Employer Transit Services ........................................... 2-56 Existing Transit-Supportive Systems and Services ............................................. 2-63 Planned and Anticipated Transit Services ........................................................... 2-66 Overall Assessment of Existing Services ............................................................ 2-72 Existing Services Conclusion .............................................................................. 2-86 3 Transit Market Analysis ...................................................................................... 3-1 Development Patterns and Transit Demand ......................................................... 3-2 Elements Driving Transit Demand ........................................................................ 3-8 Existing Population-Based Transit Demand .......................................................... 3-9 Existing Employment-Based Transit Demand ..................................................... 3-24 Existing Travel Flows .......................................................................................... 3-38 Future Transit Demand ....................................................................................... 3-41 2040 Employment-Based Transit Demand .......................................................... 3-46 2040 Future Travel Flows ................................................................................... 3-58 Conclusions and Summary ................................................................................. 3-59 4 Conclusions and Next Steps .............................................................................. 4-1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 4-1 Major Issues ......................................................................................................... 4-1 Paratransit, Demand Response, and Mobility Management ................................ 4-10 Next Steps .......................................................................................................... 4-11 State of the System | ii Table of Figures Page Figure 1-1 Existing Transit Service in Southeast Michigan ........................................ 1-3 Figure 2-1 Existing Fixed Route Transit Services in the RTA Region by Provider ..... 2-4 Figure 2-2 AAATA System Map ................................................................................ 2-6 Figure 2-3 AAATA Days of Service ........................................................................... 2-7 Figure 2-4 AAATA Service Frequencies ................................................................... 2-9 Figure 2-5 AAATA On-Time Performance ............................................................... 2-10 Figure 2-6 AAATA Annual Ridership 10-Year Trend ............................................... 2-11 Figure 2-7 AAATA Annual Revenue Vehicle Hours 10-Year Trend ......................... 2-12 Figure 2-8 AAATA Peak Vehicles Operated 10-Year Trend .................................... 2-12 Figure 2-9 AAATA Annual Operating Budget 10-Year Trend .................................. 2-15 Figure 2-10 Existing DDOT Fixed Route Transit Services ......................................... 2-19 Figure 2-11 DDOT Days of Service .......................................................................... 2-21 Figure 2-12 DDOT Service Frequencies ................................................................... 2-22 Figure 2-13 DDOT On-Time Performance ................................................................ 2-23 Figure 2-14 DDOT Pull-Out Rate .............................................................................. 2-24 Figure 2-15 DDOT Annual Ridership 10-Year Trend ................................................. 2-24 Figure 2-16 DDOT Annual Revenue Vehicle Hours 10-Year Trend .......................... 2-25 Figure 2-17 DDOT Peak Vehicles Operated 10-Year Trend ..................................... 2-25 Figure 2-18 DDOT Operating Budget 10-Year Trend ................................................ 2-28 Figure 2-19 DTC On-Time Performance ................................................................... 2-31 Figure 2-20 DTC Annual Ridership 10-Year Trend ................................................... 2-31 Figure 2-21 DTC Annual Revenue Vehicle Hours 10-Year Trend ............................. 2-32 Figure 2-22 DTC Peak Vehicles Operated 10-Year Trend ........................................ 2-32 Figure 2-23 Detroit People Mover ............................................................................. 2-33 Figure 2-24 DTC Annual Operating Budget 10-Year Trend ....................................... 2-34 Figure 2-25 SMART System Map ............................................................................. 2-36 Figure 2-26 SMART Days of Service ........................................................................ 2-39 Figure 2-27 SMART Service Frequencies ................................................................. 2-40 Figure 2-28 SMART On-Time Performance .............................................................. 2-42 Figure 2-29 SMART Annual Ridership 10-Year Trend .............................................. 2-42 Figure 2-30 SMART Annual Revenue Vehicle Hours 10-Year Trend ........................ 2-43 Figure 2-31 SMART Peak Vehicles Operated 10-Year Trend ................................... 2-43 Figure 2-32 SMART Operating Budget 10-Year Trend ............................................. 2-46 Figure 2-33 U-M Transit System Map ....................................................................... 2-57 Figure 2-34 U-M Transit Service Frequencies ........................................................... 2-59 Figure 2-35 Existing Shuttle Services ....................................................................... 2-62 Figure 2-36 Future Transit Services Underway or Under Study ................................ 2-69 Figure 2-37 Weekday Peak Period Service Frequencies .......................................... 2-73 Figure 2-38 Saturday Service Frequencies ............................................................... 2-74 State of the System | iii Figure 2-39 Weekday Ridership Top 50 Ranked Routes .......................................... 2-76 Figure 2-40 Weekday Ridership 51-103 Ranked Routes .......................................... 2-77 Figure 2-41 On-Time Performance by System .......................................................... 2-78 Figure 2-42 Pull-Out Rate by System........................................................................ 2-78 Figure 2-43 Annual Ridership 10-Year Trend by System .......................................... 2-79 Figure 2-44 Annual Vehicle Revenue Hours 10-Year Trend by System .................... 2-79 Figure 2-45 Peak Vehicles Operated 10-Year Trend by System ............................... 2-80 Figure 2-46 Requested Travel Destinations .............................................................. 2-85 Figure 3-1 Current Land Use .................................................................................... 3-3 Figure 3-2 Street Network Design and Walk Distances to Transit ............................. 3-5 Figure 3-3 Michigan Avenue in Inkster, MI ................................................................ 3-5 Figure 3-4 Relationship Between Population and Employment Densities and Transit Demand ................................................................................................... 3-6 Figure 3-5 Population Distribution (2010) and Transit Service Coverage ................ 3-11 Figure 3-6 Population Densities and Transit Demand ............................................. 3-14 Figure 3-7 Older Adult Population (2010) ................................................................ 3-15 Figure 3-8 Baby Boomer Population (2010) ............................................................ 3-17 Figure 3-9 Millennial Population (2000) ................................................................... 3-18 Figure 3-10 Millennial Population (2010) ................................................................... 3-18 Figure 3-11 Population of Persons with Disabilities .................................................... 3-19 Figure 3-12 Low Income Individuals (2010) .............................................................. 3-19 Figure 3-13 Zero Vehicle Individuals (2010).............................................................. 3-21 Figure 3-14 Minority Populations (2010) ................................................................... 3-22 Figure 3-15 Increase and Decrease in Demand Based on Demographic Characteristics (2010) .................................................................................................... 3-23 Figure 3-16 2010