ReportNo. 390a-BM CurrentEconomic Position and Prospectsof Public Disclosure Authorized the Bahamas June3, 1974 Latin America and the CaribbeanRegional Office Notfor PublicUse Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Documentof the InternationalBank for Reconstructionand Development InternationalDevelopment Association Public Disclosure Authorized Thisreport was preparedfor official use only by the BankGroup. It may not be published,quoted or cited without BankGroup authorization. The BankGroup does not accept responsibilityfor the accuracyor completenessof the report. CURRENCYEQUIVALENT Currency Unit = Bahamian dollar Since February 1973 B$1.00 = US$1.00 Between December 1971 - February 1973 US$1.00 B$0.97 B$1.00 US$1.03 Prior to December 1971 B$1.00 = US$1.00 This is a report of the economic mission which visited the Bahamas from October 15 to November 3, 1973. The mission consisted of Mr. Eduardo R. Conesa (Economist) and Miss K. M. Vij.yalakshmi (Research Assistant). While in the field, the mission cooperated with a con- current DIF mission. TA)'A- &31 iTENTS MAP COUNTRY DATA TABLES IN TEXT SUMMARY ANrbiCONCtU,-:ION. .@S . .i I. GENERALBACKGROUNJD 1 A. Geographical . e . .* . B. Historicai. 2 II. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND DEVLi>OPa'NT CONSTRAINTS 6 A. Growth Perfornance ba the sixties . 6 B. Growth Performance in the seventies . 8 C. High GNP per Capita . 12 D. Economic Structure and the Predominance of Tourism . .. 13 E. Recent Balance of Payments Performance.. .15 F. Recent Investment and Saving Performance . ... .. 21 G. The Manpower Constraint . 26 H. Income kistribution. 30 III. SECTURAL PROSPECTS ANDISSUES 34 A. Agricultural Development and Eff-4 ciency . ......... 34 B. Industrial Development and Incentives . 35 C. Financial Services . ..... 36 De Tourism . .. 39 E. Water Supply and Sewerage . .51 F. Electricity,Telecommunications and Transportation . .,55 G. Educational Problems and Policies . 56 IV. DEVELOPME STRATEGY AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM 60 A. Country Objectives . 60 B. Development Strategy . 61 C. Overall Investment Requirements . * . 63 D. The Public Investment Program . 63 TkBLE OF CONTENTS (Contd.) Page No. V. FINANCING OF DEVELOPMENT 67 A. Public Sector Financing . 68 B. Fiscal Prospect and Issues . 73 C. Private Sector Flnanc: ng. 77 D. MonetaryNanagem3nt . 79 --I. BALANCEOF PAYnIENTSPROSPECTS Ai;Z EXTERNAL DEBT 83 A. Balance of Payments Prospects . 83 B. External Debt . 85 APPENDIX A - The National Accounts Estirumtes . 86 APPENDIX B - External Capital Requirements . 88 STATISTICAL APPENDIX .... .. 94 TABLES IN TEXT Page No. Table 1: Land and Population by Island - 1970 . * * * . * * 2 Table 2: Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, 1969-1972 * * * * * * 10 Table 3: GNP Estimates, 1970, Benchmark Year * * * * * . 12 Table 4: Economic Structure1970 . ** . .* * * . 14 Table 5: The Resource Balance as % of GDP * * * . * . * * *. 16 Table 6: Balance of Payments - Current Account. * . * * * * * * 17 Table 7: Merchandise Exports FOB Excluding Oil- * * *. * 18 Table 8: Merchandise Imports CIF, Excluding Oil * * * * . 19 Table 9s Direction of Trade Excluding Oil under Processing Agreement . * . * . * . .* 9 920 Table 10: Balance of Payments - Capital Account * * . * I 21 Table 11: The Investment Effort; GDI as percent of GDP * * * * * * 22 Table 12: The Composition and Evolution of Investment * * 22 Table 13: Working permits and Investments . *. *. * * 25 Table 14: The Savings Effort - Savings as percent of GDP . 25 Table 15: The Financing of Investments . 26 Table 16: Population Increase . 26 Table 17: Percentage Distribution of Employees by Area and Nationality, 1968. 27 Table 18: Population, Labor Force, Sex and Participation inl 1970 *- - - - 0.------ 0...... .. - 28 Table 19: Actual Employment by Type of Occupation and Sex ** * * 29 Table 20: Selected Wages Rates in Bahamas 1973 and Comparison - with other Caribbean countries as percent of Bahamas 29 Table 21: Per Capita Disposable Income per Island- * * * * *. 32 Table 22: Expenditure of a Small Shell Bank in Nassau . 37 Table 23: Visitor's Points of Residence (percent). * * . 40 Table 24: Bahamas Air Fares in Comparison with some Caribbean Tourist Competitor's Countrie;s . 40 Table 25: Tourist Arrivals 1969-73 . 42 Table 26: Tourist Expenditure Pattern 1972 . * * . 44 Table 27: Tourist Expenditures 1969-1972 . 46 Table 28: Tourist Accommodations in the Bahamas and other Caribbean Countries, 1972 ..... .46 Table 29: Hotel Rooms Available . a . * . 47 Table 30: % Hotel Room Occupancy, 1972 . .*. 49 Table 31; Price Competitiveness of Bahamas in Comparison with other Tourist Areas - 1972 . 49 Table 32: Water Authority Revenue Statement 1973 *. .*.... 53 Table 33: Government Expenditure on Education . 56 Table 34: Public Investments 1967-73 . oLh Table 35: Public Investment as percent of GDP, GDI, Government Revenue and Gross Public Savings..... 65 Table 36: Public Investment Program - (B$O00). 0 0 0. 66 Table 37: Analysis of Public Sector Finances 1969-73 . *. *. * 67 Table 38: Different Measures of the Tax Effort 1972 . M . * * * * 69 Table 39: Tax Revenue 1969-73 - * * * * * * * * 69 Table 40: Commercial Bank Credit and Liabilities to the Private S etoo r 79 Page No. Table 41: Compositionof the Money Supply 1972 . 80 Table 42: Selected Variables Related with Inflation . 80 Table 43: Suwmary of the Balance :)fPayments Excluding Oil under Proceusing ;1greement. 83 Table 44: Selected Indicato:s of -;reditworthiness* . * * * * * * * . 85 Table 45: Exter-ial Capital iequirem3ents High Growth Path . 91 Table 46: External Capital Requirements Low Growth Path * .* * * . * . 93 SOURCESOF TABLES IN THE TEXT Table 1 Department of Statistics. Tables 2 and 3 IBRD estimates. Table 4 IBRD and Department of Statistics. Tables 5,6,7,8,9, and 10 IMF, Department of Statistics, Bahamas Monetary Atuthority and IBRD. Tables 11 and 12 IBRD estimates. Table 13 Immigration Service (Cabinet Office) and IBRD. Tables 14 and 15 IBRD estimates. Table 16 Department of Statistics, Immigration Service (Cabinet Office) and IBRD estimates. Table 17 Clapp and Mayne Report 1969. Tables 18 and 19 Department of Statistics. Tables 20 and 21 Department of Statistics, Ministry of Tourism and IBRD. Table 22 Bahamas Monetary Authority. Table 23 Ministry of Tourism. Tables 24 and 25 Ministry of Tourism and IBRD. Tables 26 and 27 Ministry of Tourism. Table 28 Ministry of Tourism and IBRD. Tables 29 and 30 Ministry of Tourism. Table 31 Dayton and Keenan Report, August 1973. Table 32 Ministry of Public Works. Table 33 Ministry of Finance (Treasury Accounts). Table 34 Ministry of Finance (Treasury Accounts) and IBRD; Table 35 IBRD estimates. Table 36 Ministry of Finance and IBRD. Table 37 Ministry of Finance, IMF and IBRD. Table 38 IBRD estimates. Table 39 Ministry of Finance and IMF. Tables 40 and 41 Bahamas Monetary Authority and IHF. Table 42 Bahamas Monetary Authority, Department of Statistics and C.E.A. of USA. Tables 43 and 44 IBRD estimates. GLOSSARY GDP : Gross Domestic Product GNP : Gross National Product GDI : Gross Domestic Investment GDS * Gross Domestic Savings MPS : Marginal Propensity to Save MPM : Marginal Propensity to Import MNSR: Marginal National Savings Ratio IBRD 10820 104 78' 76 INSET i JANUARY1974 GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WalkersCay N rth \ , . $,,Senttbrnent~~~V,m Mq.Leons GRAND BAHAMAI. BgelicanPti9 (Se nstI . g R 7 Norman o015 JO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~14W 20P FREEPORT Castle REEA- NOUST'RIALCOMPLE OLVhHarbour REPRTERMINAL a IC 20 30 40 FreeportTERMINAt IGREA REEPORTINDUSTPIAL COMPLEX o 'sonCityCit U.S. A. -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~ ~USAA TANrtic 2~~~~~~6~~~~~Gordo Coy*26- f oult THEBAHAMAS olIei theWaUll Aef e CoNI OCEAN 4 C' ~~~~~~BIMINI$ t~? .~RHATpO r7 Spanah*I COY 4AQERTORICO NTHEACurre A II lVl C(ENC0 AMIC DOMI ICAN AARAGONITE Th. Iice ' anwSea,Z,L Iiols Trpum o ELEUTfiERA (5O-EZUEA iLp' J' W PROVIDENCEI Portsmouth dosTown 4hursTownhr se ° e n Of NormanCmoaCq I' 'z~~~;,No o B )~~~~~CATf. 5o ANDROS I The igh -24-_ <fs ,bBmps e Xd< ° Devis tk T@SAN SALVADORI. -V .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.o~~~~~Pckbvrn 24'- Coy Sal Burnt Rum GREA Grundc Ca aE,, %,# 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Hi< ~~Richmondf RWRCay TO '08' ;\LONG f. SO0 78 DZo*dmomsCoy 00 INSET 2 SALT nT NEW PROVIDENCEISLAND ,vsPiwn SouthPt 0 COKED f. N SAU Sa dilanduVllage ~~~~~~~~MAYAGUANAI. -22'2- 25 Carmichael 0 40 so 120 14 KILOMETERS Coral Harr -0 2G20 wcc40 aref;60 C0 1o0 0 2 4 6 t MitEs GREAT INAGAI Kilometers SALT O 1 0*2 a 4 5 ~~~~~~~~CUBACUB Matthewownote 77'10' Milos 76' 74' THE BAH/ MA ISLANDS V. Major potentialagricultural lands International airports * Resort developmentsin the family islands A Industrial and rniningdevelopments ® Major airfields Main roads * Minor airfields Page 1 of 2 pages COUNTRYDATA - The Bahamas AREA 2 POPULATION DENSITY IT,942 km 0.175 million (mid-1972) 12.6 per km2 Rate of Growth: 2.0 (from 1970to 1972) 260.0 per km2 of arable land POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1971) HEALTH (1972) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 28.8 Population per physician 1,250 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 6.3 Population per hospital bed 197 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 37.4 INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1970) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (year) % of pefsonal income, highest quintile 52.0 % owned by top 10% of owners lowest quintile 2.9 % owned by smallest 10% of owners ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1972) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (year) % of population - urban 80 % of population - urban 90 - rural *-- rural NUTRITION (1973) EDUCATION (1970) Calorie intake as % of requirements .. Adult literacy rate % 93 Per capita protein intake grams .. Primary school enrollment % 100.0 GNP PER CAPITA in 1970: US $ 2,372 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCr IN 1970 ANNUALRATE OF GROWTH(%. constant prices) US $ Mln. % 1960-65 1965-69 1970-1972 GNP at Market Prices 400.5 100.0 .. 12.0 -4.0 Gross Domestic Investment 133.2 33.2 16.0 -35.0 Gross National Saving 44.4 11.1 .. 14.3 7.3 Current Account Balance -97.4 -24.3 Exports of Goods, NFS 2/ 320.0 79.9 . 25.5 11.9 Imports of Goods, NFS 2/ 345.8 86.3 .. 28.5 -13.0 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1970 Value Added Labor Force V. A. Per Worker US Mln. % Thousand % US $ 7.