NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JUNE 10, 2015 NATO Publics Blame Russia for Ukrainian Crisis, but Reluctant to Provide Military Aid In Russia, Anti-Western Views and Support for Putin Surge BY Katie Simmons, Bruce Stokes and Jacob Poushter FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Katie Simmons, Associate Director, Research Bruce Stokes, Director, Global Economic Attitudes Russ Oates, Senior Communications Manager 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, June, 2015, “NATO Publics Blame Russia for Ukrainian Crisis, but Reluctant to Provide Military Aid” 1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER About This Report This report examines public opinion in Ukraine, Russia and eight NATO countries: the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. It is based on 11,116 face-to-face and telephone interviews in these 10 nations with adults 18 and older conducted from April 6 to May 15, 2015. For more details, see survey methodology and topline results. Chapter 1 explores public opinion in eight NATO countries on a variety of issues, including views of Russia and President Vladimir Putin, responsibility for the violence in eastern Ukraine, actions to address the situation in Ukraine and attitudes towards NATO itself. Chapter 2 examines Russian attitudes towards their economy and Russia’s international image, western powers and their leaders, President Putin and the Ukrainian crisis. Chapter 3 looks at Ukrainian public opinion, including views about their economy, domestic institutions, President Petro Poroshenko, whether Ukraine should remain united as a single nation, and attitudes toward Russia, western powers and their leaders. This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals: Katie Simmons, Associate Director, Research Bruce Stokes, Director, Global Economic Attitudes Jacob Poushter, Research Associate James Bell, Vice President, Global Strategy Jill Carle, Research Associate Danielle Cuddington, Research Assistant Claudia Deane, Vice President, Research Kat Devlin, Research Analyst Michael Keegan, Information Graphics Designer David Kent, Copy Editor Bridget Parker, Research Assistant Steve Schwarzer, Research Methodologist Bethany Smith, Administrative Coordinator Richard Wike, Director, Global Attitudes Research Ben Wormald, Associate Digital Producer Hani Zainulbhai, Research Analyst Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/global. www.pewresearch.org 2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. The center studies U.S. politics and policy views; media and journalism; internet and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and U.S. social and demo- graphic trends. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. All of the center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. © Pew Research Center 2015 www.pewresearch.org 3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Table of Contents Overview: NATO Publics Blame Russia for Ukrainian Crisis, but Reluctant to Provide Military Aid 4 1. NATO Public Opinion: Wary of Russia, Leery of Action on Ukraine 15 2. Russian Public Opinion: Putin Praised, West Panned 26 3. Ukrainian Public Opinion: Dissatisfied with Current Conditions, Looking for an End to the Crisis 35 Methodology 42 Topline Results 43 www.pewresearch.org 4 PEW RESEARCH CENTER NATO Publics Blame Russia for Ukrainian Crisis, but Reluctant to Provide Military Aid In Russia, Anti-Western Views and Support for Putin Surge Publics of key member nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) blame Russia for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Many also see Russia as a military threat to other neighboring states. But few support sending arms to Ukraine. Moreover, at least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not use military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia. A median of 39% among NATO publics say Russia is the main culprit in the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine. The pro-Russian separatists in Luhans’k and Donets’k (18%) are a distant second. Half say Russia is a major military threat to other neighboring nations. In response to the crisis, 70% among allied countries say Western countries should send economic aid to Ukraine. A majority (57%) also supports Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. www.pewresearch.org 5 PEW RESEARCH CENTER NATO nations are hesitant, however, to escalate their involvement in the conflict, Many NATO Countries Reluctant to Use especially militarily. Comparatively few Force to Defend Allies support sending arms to Ukraine (median of If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally, do you 41%). And many allied countries are reluctant think our country should or should not use military force to uphold Article 5 of the North Atlantic to defend that country? Treaty, which requires NATO members to Should not Should defend an ally with armed force if necessary. A U.S. 37% 56% median of 48% among these publics say their Canada 36 53 country should use military force if Russia gets UK 37 49 into a serious military conflict with a Poland 34 48 neighboring nation that is a NATO ally, while Spain 47 48 42% are opposed. France 53 47 Italy 51 40 Americans and Canadians are the only publics Germany 58 38 where more than half think their country MEDIAN 42 48 should use military action if Russia attacks a Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. Q52. fellow NATO member (56% and 53%, PEW RESEARCH CENTER respectively). Germans (58%) are the most likely to say their country should not. All NATO member publics are more likely to think the United States will come to an ally’s defense Russian Ratings of U.S., EU Collapse (median of 68%) than to be willing to do so Favorable views of ... themselves. 100% As the crisis in Ukraine has dragged on, mutual animosity between Russia and the 63 West has become more entrenched. A median 50 of just a quarter of NATO publics now say they 39 51 31 have a favorable view of Russia. Meanwhile, EU only 12% of Russians give NATO a positive 23 U.S. rating. And Russians’ favorable views of the 15 U.S. and the European Union have plummeted 0 2013 2014 2015 by more than 30 percentage points since 2013, Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. Q12a & e. before the beginning of the crisis. Half of PEW RESEARCH CENTER Russians say NATO is a major military threat to their nation. And Russians overwhelmingly oppose Ukraine becoming a member of either NATO (83% oppose) or the EU (68%). www.pewresearch.org 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER At the same time, President Vladimir Putin’s Putin Receives High Marks in Russia image at home continues to improve amid the Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Putin is handling … conflict. Overwhelming majorities in Russia approve of Putin’s performance on a range of Approve Disapprove Don’t know % % % domestic and international issues. This support Relations w/ China 90 4 5 holds despite the fact that Russians are less Relations w/ U.S. 85 10 5 happy about the country’s current economic Relations w/ Ukraine 83 13 4 situation than in 2014 and are now more likely Relations w/ EU 82 11 7 to say that Putin’s actions in Ukraine are Energy policy 73 14 13 tarnishing Russia’s image worldwide. Russian Economy 70 23 6 nationalism is also at an all-time high – 63% Corruption 62 29 8 have a very favorable image of their own Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. Q81a-g. country, up 34 percentage points since 2013 PEW RESEARCH CENTER and up 12 points in just the past 12 months. In addition, 69% of Russians say it is a bad thing that the Soviet Union dissolved, and 61% agree that parts of other countries really belong to Russia. Meanwhile in Ukraine, the security situation on the ground posed a serious challenge to safely surveying the public. Pew Research Center was, however, able to interview in all regions of the country except Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.1 The areas covered by the survey represent roughly 80% of the Ukrainian population. Among those surveyed, a majority of Ukrainians (67%) support becoming a member of the EU. They also favor joining NATO by a 53%-to-32% margin. At the same time, a plurality (47%) expresses support for negotiating with the rebels and Russia. Roughly a quarter (23%) says using military force to fight the separatists is the best way to end the conflict in the east, and another 19% volunteer either both or neither. National differences in the preferred outcome for negotiations may continue to complicate reaching a settlement. While most Ukrainians outside of Donbas and Crimea say Luhans’k and Donets’k should remain part of Ukraine, either on the same terms with the national government as before (51%) or with increased regional autonomy (33%), a majority of Russians believe these two oblasts should secede, becoming either independent states (35%) or part of Russia (24%). These are the key findings of a Pew Research Center survey of 11,116 respondents in eight NATO member countries, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as Russia and Ukraine. The survey was conducted from April 6 to May 15, 2015. 1 The Pew Research Center’s Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey in Ukraine excludes the oblasts of Luhans’k and Donets’k – also referred to as the Donbas region – as well as Crimea, for reasons of security and political sensitivities.