The Coal Question William Stanley Jevons The Coal Question An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal-Mines by William Stanley Jevons Edition Used: London: Macmillan and Co., 1866. (Second edition, revised) First Published: 1865 Version: 1.0 This version of the text formatted and prepared by Patrick Draper [email protected] April 13, 2009. It is distinct from other available versions in that it is contained in a single file. Users of ebook readers such as the Amazon Kindle or the Sony Reader Digital Book may find this more convenient. Please report all typographical and formatting errors to me at the aforementioned email address. This text is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- Share Alike license (version 3) Please read the full license at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ 1 The Coal Question William Stanley Jevons 2 The Coal Question William Stanley Jevons Table of Contents Preface........................................................................................................................................................4 Chapter I - Introduction and Outline........................................................................................................13 Chapter II - Opinions of Previous Writers...............................................................................................19 Chapter III - Geological Aspects of the Question....................................................................................31 Chapter IV - Of the Cost of Coal Mining................................................................................................39 Chapter V - Of the Price of Coal..............................................................................................................48 Chapter VI - Of British Invention............................................................................................................54 Chapter VII - Of the Economy of Fuel....................................................................................................71 Chapter VIII - Of Supposed Substitutes for Coal....................................................................................79 Chapter IX - Of the Natural law of Social Growth..................................................................................94 Chapter X - Of the Growth and Migrations of our Population................................................................99 Chapter XI - Of the Change and Progress of our Industry.....................................................................114 Chapter XII - Of our Consumption of Coal...........................................................................................129 Chapter XIII - Of the Export and Import of Coal..................................................................................140 Chapter XIV - On the Comparative Coal Resources of Different Countries.........................................158 Chapter XV - Of the Iron Trade.............................................................................................................168 Chapter XVI - The Problem of the Trading Bodies...............................................................................184 Chapter XVII - Of Taxes and the National Debt...................................................................................195 Chapter XVIII - Concluding Reflections...............................................................................................202 3 The Coal Question William Stanley Jevons Preface I AM desirous of prefixing to the second edition of the following work a few explanations which may tend to prevent misapprehension of its purpose and conclusions. The expression "exhaustion of our coal mines," states the subject in the briefest form, but is sure to convey erroneous notions to those who do not reflect upon the long series of changes in our industrial condition which must result from the gradual deepening of our coal mines and the increased price of fuel. Many persons perhaps entertain a vague notion that some day our coal seams will be found emptied to the bottom, and swept clean like a coal-cellar. Our fires and furnaces, they think, will then be suddenly extinguished, and cold and darkness will be left to reign over a depopulated country. It is almost needless to say, however, that our mines are literally inexhaustible. We cannot get to the bottom of them; and though we may some day have to pay dear for fuel, it will never be positively wanting. I have occasionally spoken in the following pages of "the end," of the "instability of our position," and so forth. When considered in connexion with the context, or with expressions and qualifications in other parts of the volume, it will be obvious that I mean not the end or overturn of the nation, but the end of the present progressive condition of the kingdom. If there be a few expressions which go beyond this, I should regard them as speculative only, and should not maintain them as an essential part of the conclusions. Renewed reflection has convinced me that my main position is only too strong and true. It is simply that we cannot long progress as we are now doing. I give the usual scientific reasons for supposing that coal must confer mighty influence and advantages upon its rich possessor, and I show that we now use much more of this invaluable aid than all other countries put together. But it is impossible we should long maintain so singular a position; not only must we meet some limit within our own country, but we must witness the coal produce of other countries approximating to our own, and ultimately passing it. At a future time, then, we shall have influences acting against us which are now acting strongly with us. We may even then retain no inconsiderable share of the world's trade, but it is impossible that we should go on expanding as we are now Preface 4 The Coal Question William Stanley Jevons doing. Our motion must be reduced to rest, and it is to this change my attention is directed. How long we may exist in a stationary condition I, for one, should never attempt to conjecture. The question here treated regards the length of time that we may go on rising, and the height of prosperity and wealth to which we may attain. Few will doubt, I think, after examining the subject, that we cannot long rise as we are now doing. Even when the question is thus narrowed I know there will be no want of opponents. Some rather hasty thinkers will at once cut the ground from under me, and say that they never supposed we should long progress as we are doing, nor do they desire it. I would make two remarks in answer. Firstly, have they taken time to think what is involved in bringing a great and growing nation to a stand? It is easy to set a boulder rolling on the mountain- side; it is perilous to try to stop it. It is just such an adverse change in the rate of progress of a nation which is galling and perilous. Since we began to develop the general use of coal, about a century ago, we have become accustomed to an almost yearly expansion of trade and employment. Within the last twenty years everything has tended to intensify our prosperity, and the results are seen in the extraordinary facts concerning the prevalence of marriage, which I have explained in pp. 197-200, and to which I should wish to draw special attention. It is not difficult to see, then, that we must either maintain the expansion of our trade and employment, or else witness a sore pressure of population and a great exodus of our people. The fact is, that many of my opponents simply concede the point I am endeavouring to prove without foreseeing the results, and without, again, giving any reasons in support of their position. Secondly, I do not know why this nation should not go on rising to a pitch of greatness as inconceivable now as our present position would have been inconceivable a century ago. I believe that our industrial and political genius and energy, used with honesty, are equal to anything. It is only our gross material resources which are limited. Here is a definite cause why we cannot always advance. Other opponents bring a more subtle objection. They say that the coal we use affords no measure of our industry. At a future time, instead of exporting coal, or crude iron, we may produce elaborate and artistic commodities depending less on the use of coal than the skill and taste of the workman. This change is one Preface 5 The Coal Question William Stanley Jevons which I anticipated (see p. 347). It would constitute a radical change in our industry. We have no peculiar monopoly in art, and skill, and science as we now have in coal. That by art and handicraft manufactures we might maintain a moderate trade is not to be denied, but all notions of manufacturing and maritime supremacy must then be relinquished. Those persons very much mistake the power of coal, and steam, and iron, who think that it is now fully felt and exhibited; it will be almost indefinitely greater in future years than it now is. Science points to this conclusion, and common observation confirms it. These opponents, then, likewise concede what I am trying to show, without feeling how much they concede. They do not seem to know which is the sharp edge of the argument. A further class of opponents feel the growing power of coal, but repose upon the notion that economy in its use will rescue us. If coal become twice as dear as it is, but our engines are made to produce