Battleground 2016: new game June 30, 2016 Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11 - 20. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election, 2014 election, or registered since the 2014 election were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample = +/-1.89 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=300) of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/- 5.66 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Forty-nine percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full electorate in each state. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote) on outcome variables (associations, statement pairs), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results. 1 State Breakdowns Senate Battleground: Arizona Diverse Target States: Florida* Arizona Florida Nevada Nevada North Carolina North Carolina Rustbelt Target States: Ohio Ohio New Hampshire New Hampshire Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan Wisconsin *The Senate vote results were excluded in Florida where Senator Rubio had not yet announced his candidacy. 2 THE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 3 Clinton leads Trump across the battleground I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +8 +7 49 45 41 38 10 11 6 Hillary Donald Hillary Donald Gary Other/DK Clinton 2-WayTrump Vote Other/DK Clinton Trump3-Way VoteJohnson 2 – Way Vote 3 – Way Vote 4 Trump and state GOP leaders now face of toxic GOP brand Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: 53.5 47.9 48.0 42.4 40.2 40.7 34.2 Net: +13 Net: +1 Net: -1 Net: -11 Net: -19 Net: -13 Net: -30 53 43 42 41 32 31 30 40 25 25 27 13 10 18 34 32 33 39 34 45 51 40 42 43 44 52 51 60 Barack Bernie Democratic Hillary Republican GOP in State Donald Obama Sanders Party Clinton Party Legislature Trump 5 Trump gets less than half of the white vote, even in 2-way race I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +10 +9 +81 +44 86 64 49 45 39 36 5 7 20 12 12 Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson African White Hispanic American 6 Clinton winning all generations, including millennials I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +22 +4 +2 +7 +2 46 48 46 41 44 39 41 36 32 25 24 22 13 5 5 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson White Baby Millennials Gen X Silent Millennials Boomers 7 NEW CHART The 2016 “women’s vote” is more complicated than you think PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Unmarried Women Married Women (31% of Clinton vote) (27% of Clinton vote) 2012 Vote 2016 Vote 2012 Vote 2016 Vote (2-way) (2-way) 1 2 Obama Clinton Obama Clinton 10 10 33 Romney Trump 45 45 26 Romney Trump 66 63 53 46 Other/DK Other/DK Other/DK Other/DK /Refused /Refused /Refused /Refused College-Educated Women White Non-College Educated Women (28% of Clinton Vote) (18% of Clinton vote) 2012 Vote 2016 Vote 2012 Vote 2016 Vote 1 (2-way) 2 (2-way) Obama Clinton Obama Clinton 11 11 39 43 Romney Trump Romney 39 Trump 32 56 57 59 50 Other/DK Other/DK Other/DK Other/DK /Refused /Refused /Refused /Refused 8 Improved margins among unmarried women from 2012 I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Unmarried Women White Unmarried Women +33 +39 +5 +19 66 62 52 47 50 33 31 23 10 13 Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson 2012 2016 2012 2016 9 Marriage gap sustained, even though married women now even I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 2012 Marriage Gap: 41 2016 Marriage Gap: 40 +8 +33 +1 +39 66 62 53 45 42 43 33 23 8 10 Obama Romney Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Women Women Women Women 10 RAE less determined to vote than non-RAE, driven by millennials How much do the elections this November for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from one to ten, with one meaning they don’t matter at all and ten meaning they matter tremendously. You can choose any number between one and ten. PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND % 10 – Matters Tremendously 78 77 75 75 75 75 73 73 70 69 69 69 69 68 68 59 58 11 Never Trump nearing half Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton/Trump, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton/Trump for President in November? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 48 45 40 38 10 11 Voting for Clinton Considering Never Clinton Voting for Trump Considering Trump Never Trump Clinton Clinton Vote Trump Vote 12 Composition of Clinton’s winnable voters I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton for President in November? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Clinton’s Winnable Voters 65 55 51 26 27 24 20 16 8 3 2 Dem Ind Rep Clinton Sanders Other Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Other Democratic Republican Partisanship Primary Primary 13 Clinton has consolidated 9-in-10 Democrats, Trump only 8-in-10, and real Libertarian vote with Independents I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 89 80 32 33 24 5 5 4 11 Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Democrats Independents Republicans (40%) (24%) (35%) 14 Majority of Johnson voters are Republican, but three-in-ten will vote for Clinton in 2-way ballot I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)? PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Johnson Voters 52 36 31 30 24 15 10 Hillary Donald Other DK/Refused Democrat Independent Republican Clinton Trump 2-Way Vote Partisanship *Partisanship is show by Democrats/Democratic leaning Independents, Republicans/Republican leaning Independents 15 Romney defectors driven by leadership/immigration, Obama defectors by desire for change/nationalism/economy I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. ROMNEY ‘12, NOT TRUMP ‘16 OBAMA ‘12 NOT CLINTON ‘16 Income 36 12 19 39 +3 Economy 59 37 7 22 +37 Immigration 23 9 26 49 +26 Incomes & wages 51 21 10 28 +23 Values 16 18 31 +15 Taxes 46 23 9 23 +23 Middle class 26 11 14 28 +2 Stands for America 56 34 6 17 +39 Strong Leader 18 17 49 +31 Special interests 48 25 7 21 +27 Special interests 28 8 14 33