ZAMBIA EARLY GENERATION SEED STUDY COUNTRY REPORT June 2016 This publication was produced by Feed the Future: Building Capacity for African Agricultural Transformation Project (Africa Lead II) for the United States Agency for International Development ZAMBIA EARLY GENERATION SEED STUDY COUNTRY REPORT Program Title: Early Generation Seed Systems Study, Feed the Future: Building Capacity for African Agricultural Transformation (Africa Lead II) Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID Bureau of Food Security Award Number: DAI Prime Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-A-13-00085 for the US Agency for International Development, Feed the Future: Building Capacity for African Agricultural Transformation (Africa LEAD II) Program Subcontract: DAI subcontract No. ALB-2015-001 with Context Network Date of Publication: June 2016 Author: Context Network The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................... I TABLES AND FIGURES ..................................................................................................... III FOREWORD ....................................................................................................................... V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................... VII ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................................... IX TERMINOLOGY .................................................................................................................. X METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. XII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... XV CHAPTER 1: CURRENT SITUATION – DOMINANT SEED SYSTEMS ............................... 1 1.1 COUNTRY OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 AGRICULTURE SECTOR ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3 DOMINANT SEED SYSTEMS IN ZAMBIA ............................................................................... 14 1.4 KEY ACTORS IN THE SEED SYSTEM ................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 2: CURRENT SITUATION – PRIORITY CROPS FOR EGS STUDY ................ 24 2.1 SELECTING CROPS TO BE STUDIED ................................................................................... 24 2.2 SELECTED CROPS ........................................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER 3: CURRENT SITUATION – EGS SYSTEMS ................................................... 27 3.1 GROUNDNUT ................................................................................................................... 27 3.2 COMMON BEAN ............................................................................................................... 32 3.3 GROUNDNUT AND COMMON BEAN SEED SYSTEMS ............................................................. 37 3.4 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................. 42 3.5 PROMISING MODELS ........................................................................................................ 43 CHAPTER 4: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 46 4.1 POTENTIAL EGS DEMAND ................................................................................................. 46 4.2 PRODUCTION COST OF EGS .............................................................................................. 48 4.3 EGS MATCHED WITH REVENUE/COST................................................................................. 50 CHAPTER 5: EGS OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES ............................................................ 54 5.1 OPTIMAL MARKET ARCHETYPE ......................................................................................... 54 5.2 KEY CHALLENGES ........................................................................................................... 56 5.3 PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP MECHANISMS AND SOLUTIONS ........................................... 57 5.4 RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................ 65 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................ 67 ZAMBIA EGS COUNTRY STUDY I ANNEX A: PROJECT TIMELINE ....................................................................................... 70 ANNEX B: FIELD RESEARCH TEAM ............................................................................... 71 ANNEX C: STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEW LIST ................................................................. 72 ZAMBIA EGS COUNTRY STUDY II TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES Table 1: Variables that inform market archetype framework .................................................... XIV Table 2: Gender roles in crop production .................................................................................... 7 Table 3: Farm sizes in Zambia .................................................................................................... 8 Table 4: Dominant seed systems in Zambia .............................................................................. 15 Table 5: Number of released improved varieties by crop ........................................................... 16 Table 6: Key private seed companies. ...................................................................................... 21 Table 7: Government focus areas in NAIP ................................................................................ 23 Table 8: Crop selection framework ............................................................................................ 25 Table 9: Priority crop selection results in Zambia ...................................................................... 26 Table 10: Key groundnut varieties ............................................................................................. 31 Table 11: Key common bean varieties ...................................................................................... 35 Table 12: Local seed system projects…………………………………………………………... ....... 44 Table 13: Groundnut - EGS cost of production .......................................................................... 49 Table 14: Common bean - EGS cost of production ................................................................... 50 Table 15: EGS matched with revenue/cost ............................................................................... 51 Table 16: Summary of groundnut assessment. ......................................................................... 52 Table 17: Summary of common bean assessment .................................................................... 53 Table 18: Summary of crop assessments ................................................................................. 54 Table 19: Summary of key challenges ...................................................................................... 56 Table 20: Partners, contributions, and motivations for Malawi dairy PPP .................................. 58 Table 21: Groundnut and common bean EGS-PPP potential stakeholder list ........................... 63 FIGURES Figure 1: EGS system ten-step process ................................................................................... XII Figure 2: Market archetype framework .................................................................................... XIII Figure 3: Map of Zambia provinces and % population share ....................................................... 1 Figure 4: Per capita GDP Zambia compared to Sub-Saharan Africa ........................................... 2 Figure 5: Zambia GDP composition (2014) ................................................................................. 3 Figure 6: Zambia agriculture GDP composition (2013) ................................................................ 3 Figure 7: Top ten crops by area (2015) ....................................................................................... 3 Figure 8: Top ten crops by production (2015) .............................................................................. 4 Figure 9: Yields of select crops in Zambia ................................................................................... 4 Figure 10: Agro-climatic zones .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 11: Zambia livelihood zones ............................................................................................. 6 Figure 12: Crop production and farm size by province ................................................................ 7 Figure 13: Farm sizes in Zambia ................................................................................................. 9 Figure 14: Five-year yield average: National versus top 10%, 2005-2010 ................................... 9 Figure 15: Major value chain constraints ..................................................................................