Narratives of Low- Carbon Transitions This book examines the uncertainties underlying various strategies for a low- carbon future. Most prominently, such strategies relate to transitions in the energy sector, on both the supply and the demand side. At the same time they interact with other sectors, such as industrial production, transport, and build- ing, and ultimately require new behaviour patterns at household and individual levels. Currently, much research is available on the effectiveness of these strat- egies but, in order to successfully implement comprehensive transition path- ways, it is crucial not only to understand the benefits but also the risks. Filling this gap, this volume provides an interdisciplinary, conceptual framework to assess risks and uncertainties associated with low- carbon policies and applies this consistently across 11 country cases from around the world, illustrating alternative transition pathways in various contexts. The cases are presented as narratives, drawing on stakeholder- driven research efforts. They showcase diverse empirical evidence reflecting the complex challenges to and potential negative consequences of such pathways. Together, they enable the reader to draw valuable lessons on the risks and uncertainties associated with choosing the envisaged transition pathways, as well as ways to manage the implementation of these pathways and ultimately enable sustainable and lasting social and environmental effects. This book will be of great interest to students, scholars, and practitioners of environmental and energy policy, low- carbon transitions, renewable energy technologies, climate change action, and sustainability in general. Susanne Hanger- Kopp is a researcher at the Institute for Environmental Deci- sions at ETH Zürich, Switzerland, and at the Risk and Resilience Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. Jenny Lieu is a research fellow at the University of Sussex, UK, and guest researcher at the Transdisciplinary Lap of the Department of Environmental Systems Science at ETH Zürich, Switzerland. Alexandros Nikas is a researcher at the Management & Decision Support Systems Laboratory of the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece. Routledge Studies in Energy Transitions Considerable interest exists today in energy transitions. Whether one looks at diverse efforts to decarbonise, or strategies to improve the access levels, security and innovation in energy systems, one finds that change in energy systems is a prime priority. Routledge Studies in Energy Transitions aims to advance the thinking which underlies these efforts. The series connects distinct lines of inquiry from planning and policy, engineering and the natural sciences, history of technology, STS, and management. In doing so, it provides primary references that function like a set of international, techni- cal meetings. Single and co-authored monographs are welcome, as well as edited volumes relating to themes, like resilience and system risk. Series Editor: Dr. Kathleen Araújo, Boise State University and Energy Policy Institute, Center for Advanced Energy Studies (US) Series Advisory Board Morgan Bazilian, Colorado School of Mines (US) Thomas Birkland, North Carolina State University (US) Aleh Cherp, Central European University (CEU, Budapest) and Lund University (Sweden) Mohamed El- Ashry, UN Foundation Jose Goldemberg, Universidade de Sao Paolo (Brasil) and UN Development Program, World Energy Assessment Michael Howlett, Simon Fraser University (Canada) Jon Ingimarsson, Landsvirkjun, National Power Company (Iceland) Michael Jefferson, ESCP Europe Business School Jessica Jewell, IIASA (Austria) Florian Kern, Institut für Ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung (Germany) Derk Loorbach, DRIFT (Netherlands) Jochen Markard, ETH (Switzerland) Nabojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA (Austria) Martin Pasqualetti, Arizona State University, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (US) Mark Radka, UN Environment Programme, Energy, Climate, and Technology Rob Raven, Utrecht University (Netherlands) Roberto Schaeffer, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Energy Planning Program, COPPE (Brasil) Miranda Schreurs, Technische Universität Mūnchen, Bavarian School of Public Policy (Germany) Vaclav Smil, University of Manitoba and Royal Society of Canada (Canada) Benjamin Sovacool, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex (UK) Narratives of Low- Carbon Transitions Understanding Risks and Uncertainties Edited by Susanne Hanger- Kopp, Jenny Lieu, and Alexandros Nikas First published 2019 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2019 selection and editorial matter, Susanne Hanger- Kopp, Jenny Lieu, and Alexandros Nikas; individual chapters, the contributors The right of Susanne Hanger- Kopp, Jenny Lieu, and Alexandros Nikas to be identified as the authors of the editorial matter, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis. com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial- No Derivatives 4.0 license. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing- in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging- in-Publication Data Names: Hanger-Kopp, Susanne, editor. | Lieu, Jenny, editor. | Nikas, Alexandros, 1989- editor. Title: Narratives of low-carbon transitions : understanding risks and uncertainties / edited by Susanne Hanger-Kopp, Jenny Lieu and Alexandros Nikas. Description: Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2019. | Series: Routledge studies in energy transitions | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018052683 (print) | LCCN 2018055200 (ebook) | ISBN 9780429458781 (Master) | ISBN 9781138311589 (hbk) | ISBN 9780429458781 (ebk) Subjects: LCSH: Renewable energy sources. | Energy conservation. | Carbon dioxide mitigation. Classification: LCC TJ808 (ebook) | LCC TJ808 .N37 2019 (print) | DDC 621.042–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018052683 ISBN: 978-1-138-31158-9 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-429-45878-1 (ebk) Typeset in Goudy by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear Contents List of figures viii List of tables x Notes on contributors xi Preface and acknowledgements xix PART I Setting the stage 1 1 Introduction 3 S U S A N N E H anger - K opp , J E N N Y L ieu , and ALEXANDROS NIKAS 2 Framing risks and uncertainties associated with low- carbon pathways 10 S U S A N N E H anger - K opp , A L E X A N D R O S N ikas , AND JENNY LIEU PART II Pathways for incumbent large- scale technology systems 23 3 Austria: co- designing a low- carbon transition pathway focusing on energy supply for the iron and steel sector 25 BRIGITTE WOLKINGER, JAKOB MAYER, A N D R E A S T uerk , G A B R I E L B achner , AND KARL STEININGER 4 Canada: finding common ground – the need for plural voices in lower- carbon futures of the Alberta oil sands 45 LUIS D. VIRLA, JENNY LIEU, AND CECILIA FITZPATRICK vi Contents 5 United Kingdom: pathways towards a low- carbon electricity system – nuclear expansion versus nuclear phase out 67 ROCÍO ALVAREZ- TINOCO, MICHELE STUA, AND GORDON MACKERRON PART III Pathways towards renewable electricity systems 89 6 Chile: promoting renewable energy and the risk of energy poverty in Chile 91 LUIS E. GONZALES CARRASCO AND RODRIGO CERDA 7 The Netherlands: expanding solar PV – risks and uncertainties associated with small- and large- scale options 105 K risztina de B ruyn - S zendrei , W ytze van der G aast , AND EISE SPIJKER 8 Spain: on a rollercoaster of regulatory change – risks and uncertainties associated with a renewable energy transition 121 A L E V G U L H. S orman , C R I S T I N A P izarro - I rizar , X A Q U Í N G arc Í A -M uros , M I K E L G onz Á lez -E guino , AND IÑAKI ARTO 9 Switzerland: risks associated with implementing a national energy strategy 139 OSCAR VAN VLIET PART IV Pathways towards energy- efficient building sectors 157 10 China: risks and uncertainties in low- carbon pathways for the urban building sector 159 LEI SONG, JENNY LIEU, AND YING CHEN 11 Greece: from near- term actions to long-term pathways – risks and uncertainties associated with the national energy efficiency framework 180 ALEXANDROS NIKAS, NIKOLAOS GKONIS, AIKATERINI FOROULI, ELEFTHERIOS SISKOS, APOSTOLOS ARSENOPOULOS, AIKATERINI PAPAPOSTOLOU, ELENI KANELLOU, CHARIKLEIA KARAKOSTA, AND HARIS DOUKAS Contents vii PART V Pathways focusing on renewable energy technologies at household and community levels 199 12 Indonesia: risks and uncertainties associated with biogas for cooking and electricity 201 M A R I A N A S ilaen , Y U D I A N D R A Y uwono , R I C H A R D T aylor , T A H I A D evisscher , S Y A M S I D A R T hamrin , C Y N T H I A I smail , AND TAKESHI TAKAMA 13 Kenya: risks and uncertainties around low- carbon energy pathways 220 O L I V E R W. J ohnson , H A N N A H W anjiru , M B E O O geya , AND FRANCIS X. JOHNSON PART VI Synthesis 245 14 Transition pathways, risks, and uncertainties 247 JENNY LIEU,