Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1981 Sealane defense : an emerging role for the JMSDF?. Wile, Ted Shannon Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/20663 & ®?V*,( !> Is mMm n :ot'. iVv'' :i^;:i' ,^,i^ ?v;0'.i,'--....;,'A.'.- *^.v;v3:--v v^^ ^rf^•;i;'-• l'-\ .IV ',VW .''»' .^ ;)-- q'-vM'A''P5;«fv^w.•';^ •/J'Jl , •i'-i>ii.^ •; 'I L,(,^s : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS Seal ane Def ense : An Emerging Role for the JMSDF? 1 by Ted Shannon Wile September 1981 The sis Adv:-sor Edward A. Olsen Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 1204487 Unclassified SeCUWtTY CLASliriCATIOH OF Tmi> ^>GC rWhax Dmim Enfrmtt) READ !NSTRUr-^'nNS REPORT DOCUtAEHTATIOH PAGE BEFORE COMPLETTNO FORM a. OOVT ACCESSION NO. 1 neci^iCNT's CAr*L3C numbea 4. r\r\.t (and Subililm) Master's Thesis Sealane Defense: An r^merging Role for SeDtember 1981 the J?4SDF? t. ^enFOftMiNG OMG. i^e^oMT NvjMaen S. contmact om snamt m^mBimc) T. AuTmO«i«> Ted Shannon Wile ANO AOO«f ss 10. •«OC»»AM ElEnCnT P^OJEC T4SK ». VCnrOMMINC OnOANlZATION NAMC AMCA t «OHK ^NIT >4UMteRS Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 939^0 - 12 «e^O«»T 0AT6 11 CONTHOULINC office name ANO AOOMCSS SeDtember 1981 Naval Postgraduate School ti NUMaen of pages Monterey, California 939^0 IS. SeCU^ITV CLASS, 'ol 'M« riporl) n MONl+0«1N0 AOBMCY NAMC k lkOOmtS%(ll dlllmrmni Irom Corttrolllnt Olllem) Unclasoif led IS«. OECL ASSlFlCATlON/ OOWNGRAOINC SCHEDULE (al rfll* ««»«rlj 'is. DISTRIBUTION STATCMCNT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ahmtrmel mi»T*^ In Block 30. II dlllormti Irom Hoport) 17. OISTHIBUTION STATEMENT (ol «/•• l« SU»»»l.EMENTA«V NOTES II -^ i^omitir *r »<•«* "••• It KEY WOAOt (Comtlnum on tororoo oido n«c«««wr convoy Jaoanese Navy ,_..^.^_v Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) Japanese defense rearmament , .-,_^^v < ^p.q I1ne ^ nf -nrrmr nidation ['^L^^l«*«.i<#r »r w«cc* 20. A.lTWACTVcJilm.. -. '•••»•• •'*• " -•••••^ »* Japan's eco dependent o of 90 perce percent Of Its food. Despite the l™P-tance of and forover 70 5el-- to Japanese security, the Japanese Maritime the sealanes .hose Defense Force (JMSDF) remains Incapable of protecting JMSDF is currently sealanes aeainst interdiction. Although the COITION OF t NOV •• It OMOL»TE DD '°"**7J 1473 "njlajsified 102-OM- ««0 \ (Whom D—o tmlorod) S/N ItCuniTV CLAMIFIC ATIOM OF TMIS ^AOt Unclassified [/'^•a n*t« t«f«**4' the seventh largest navy in the free world, future expansion has been stymied by Japan's steadfast refusal to increase Long-range defense spending above one percent of the GNP . procurement plans focus on qualitative improvements with a primary emphasis on anti-submarine warfare, a strategy which could foreshadow a building program to enable the JMSDF to control the vital sea lanes. On the other hand, political and domestic constraints on a strong military indicate a continuing reliance on ttie United States for Japan's security This study examines the factors affecting military decision- making in Japan, looks into the problems and realities of sealane defense and analyzes the future prospects for the JMSDF. DD Forni 1473 'ir-,-^ ^35- -^i^i , Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Sealane Defense: An Emerging Role for the JMSDF? by Ted Shannon Wile Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.A., Pennsylvania State University, 1971 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 198I Lo5^77 C.I ABSTRACT Japan's economy, the third largest in the world, is totally dependent on the sea lines of communication for the importation of 90 percent of its energy requirements and strategic metals and for over 70 percent of its food. Despite the importance of the sealanes to Japanese security, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSD?) remains incapable of protecting those sealanes against interdiction. Although the JMSDF is currently the seventh largest navy in the free world, future expansion has been stymied by Japan's steadfast refusal to increase defense spending above one percent of the GNP . Long-range procurement plans focus on qualitative improvements with a primary emphasis on anti- submarine warfare, a strategy which could foreshadow a building program to enable the JMSDF to control the vital sea lanes. On the other hand, political and domestic constraints on a strong military indicate a continuing reliance on the United States for Japan's security. This study examines the factors affecting military decision-making in Japan, looks into the problems and realities of sealane defense and analyzes the future prospects for the JMSDF. — TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 11 - II. EVOLUTION OF THE xMARITIxME SDP : 19^5 TO PRESENT 13 A. DEMOBILIZATION 13 B. THE BEGINNING 17 C. BUILD-UP PLANS 22 D. NATIONAL DEFENSE PROGRAM OUTLINE — 2 8 E. CAPABILITIES 29 F. TRENDS 37 III. POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS ON A STRONG MILITARY 39 A. OVERVIEW 39 B. DOMESTIC CONSIDERATIONS 40 1. Constitutional Constraints UO 2. Defense Spending 44 3. Public Opinion — Changing Attitudes -^ 48 4. Decision-Making and the Government 56 a. Method --^ 56 b. Position 58 5. Liberal-Democratic Party 62 6. Opposition Parties 64 7. Business and Industry 66 8. Mass Media 7Q C. FOREIGN POLICY 71 1. General 71 2. United. States 72 3. Soviet Union 79 4. People's Republic of China 83 5. Korea 35 6. Southeast Asia and ASEAN -^ 86 IV. INTERNATIONAL TRADE, THE KEY TO JAPAN'S STRENGTH 88 A. RESOURCE DEPENDENCE 88 B. JAPANESE RESPONSES 90 V. THREATS TO SEA-LANE SECURITY 98 A. PERSPECTIVES ON SEA-LANE INTERDICTION 98 B. SOVIET PACIFIC FLEET 102 C. SOVIET OPTIONS 102 D. THIRD WORLD NAVIES 109 E. JAPANESE PERCEPTIONS OF THE THREAT II6 VI. SEA-LANE DEFENSE: A RATIONAL CHOICE? 121 A. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 121 3. MODERN STUDIES — 122 C. SEKINO PLAN 126 D. SHILLING PLAN 133 E. TAOKA FLAN — 137 F. SUMMARY I38 VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR UNITED STATES' POLICY 141 FOOTNOTES 15^ BIBLIOGRAPHY I65 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST -^ 174 6 LIST OF TABLES 2-1. Build-up Plans 30 2-2. Ships of the Japanese .Maritime Self-Defense Force as of I98O -^ 3I 2-3. Aircraft of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, by Type, 1978 32 2-4. MSDF Construction Starts 33 3-1. Defense Budget from 1970 to I98I in Respect to the Gross National Product and the General Account (Billions of Yen) 46 3-2. Top Six Arms Producers 68 4-1. Percent of Total Imports of Selected Materials Carried Over Different Sea Routes, I968 96 4-2. Percent of Strategic Material Consumption Imported (net), 1975 97 4-3. International Sea-Borne Traffic Entering Japan - 97 5-1. Soviet Pacific Fleet OOB (as of June I98O) 103 5-2. Naval Order of Battle for Nations Adjacent to Japanese Sea-lanes II3 . GLOSSARY OF MILITARY TERMS AO Auxiliary, Oiler. Replenishment ship carrying fuel. AOE Auxiliary, Oil and Explosives. Replenishment ship carrying fuel and ammunition. ASROC Anti-Submarine Rocket. Rocket-thrown torpedo. ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare. CINCPAC Commander in Chief, Pacific. CIWS Close-in Weapons System. Commonly the Phalanex gatling-gun system for air defense. CNO Chief of Maval Operations. COMNAVFE Commander of Naval Forces, Far East. COM 13 Commander, Thirteenth xJaval District. Corvette Naval patrol craft usually smaller than a frigate but larger than a patrol craft DD Destroyer. Ship-type designed primarily for anti-submarine warfare. DDA Destroyer. Anti-aircraft modification. DDG Destroyer, Guided-missile equipped. DDH Destroyer, Helicopter equipped. DDK Destroyer, anti-submarine version. DE Destroyer Escort. Ship-type designed for anti- submarine warfare, generally smaller than a destroyer DESPLOT Destroyer Flotilla. Flotilla One echelon above the squadron level in naval organization. FPB Fast Patrol Boat . Hedgehog Multi-barreled anti-submarine depth charge launcher UN Imperial Japanese Navy. JMSDF/MSDF Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force K-gun Depth charge throwing gun. World War II. LAMPS Light Airborn Multi-Purpose System. Anti- submarine helicopter. LSSL Landing Support Ship, Light. Patrol gunboat. LST Landing Ship, Tank. Amphibious assualt vessel. MAD Magnetic Anomaly Detector. Short range locali- zation system for anti-submarine warfare. MSA Maritime Safety Agency. MSC Minesweeper, Coastal. OKEAN Code name given to specific Soviet worldwide naval exercises. OOB Order Of Battle. Servicable military equipment OPNAV Office of Naval Operations PACFLT Pacific Fleet. PC Patrol Craft, gun equipped. PF Patrol Frigate. Ship type for anti-submarine warfare. PT Patrol craft. Torpedo equipped. SECDEF Secretary of Defense. SLOC Sea Lines of Communication. SS Submarine, diesel-electric SSBN Submarine, Ballistic missile eqipped. Nuclear powered. SSM Surface-to-Surface Missile. Subchasers Small coastal patrol vessels used for anti- submarine warfare. TASS Towed Acoustic Surveillance System. Passive sonar array used for underwater detection. USCG U.S. Coast Guard. VDS Variable Depth Sonar. V/STOL Vertical/Short Take-Off and Landing aircraft Y-gun Depth charge throwing gun. World War II. 10 I. INTRODUCTION Japan is an industrial giant with a Gross National Pro- duct (GNP) surpassed only by the United States and the Soviet Union. Unlike these continental giants, however, Japan has virtually no natural resources of her own. Her survival is totally dependent on foreign trade and on her sealanes of communication, over which passes 90 percent of her energy supplies, over 95 percent of her strategic metals and 70 percent of her food. Despite the importance of these sealanes, the maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) is incapable of insuring the safety of merchant shipping in the face of sealane interdiction by a hostile power. Despite constant pressure from the United States to increase her defense spending and to take a larger role in regional security, Japan has refused steadfastly to spend more than one percent of her GNP on defense.