R.ecent price developments in Finland E1innish consumer industries: In overview Devaluation of the Finnish markka Direct investment in 1976 Finland's balance of payments January­ March 1977 Finland's gross long-term foreign debt in January-June 1977 BANK OF FINLAND'S CONVERTIBLE AND NON-CONVERTIBLE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, 1972 - 1977 MIII.mk ,..------y-----..,.-----'"T"'-----,------.,------, 3000~~~~_+--------~--------+_------~--------_+--------~ 2500~------~r_------~--------+_------~--------_+--------4 2000~------_+~~----~---#~r_+_------~--------_+--------~ 1500~------~------~~------~--_,~~+__4~~_+------~ ,. Gold and con­ vertible currencies 1000~------_+--------_r--------+_~~--~~~--~~~~~--~ 2. Non-convertible currencies -500r-------1--------+--------~------~-------+------~ 1975 1976 1977 BANK OF FINLAND'S POSITION WITH REGARD TO THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SECTOR, 1972-1977 MiII.mk r------,r-----.,----....,.-----,------,------, 4500r--------r--------r--------r--------r-----·--~------_; 4000~------~--------~------~------_=~------_+------~ 1. Net receivables from the domestic 3500~------_+--------~--------+_~~~~~~-E~~r_--~__4 financia I sector 3000~------_+--------~----~~h 2. Discounted and rediscounted bills 2500r--------r------~~~~~~--------r-------_+~~--_; Seasonallyadjust­ 2000r-------~----~~~-------r--------r-------_+------_; ed end-of-month 1500~------_r~~~--r_------_+--------r_------_+------_; figures 1000~------_r~~----r_------~--------r_------_+------_; 500~~~~~~~------~------~--------~------_+------_; O~~u.~~u.~~u.~~~~~~~~~~~~.u~u..u~~ 1972 1973 1974 1975 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS I DEFICIT, 1972-1977 MIII.mk ...------y-----..,.------r-----,------.,------, -500~-------r~=---~ -1000~------_r--------r_-- Seasonallyadjust­ ed quarterly fig­ -1500~-------+---------r---- ures -2000~------~--------~-------+ -2500~------~--------~------~--------~-------+-------; RECENT PRICE DEVELOPMENTS IN FINLAND After a successful stabilization period in 1969 cent. about three percentage points of which -1971. when prices in Finland rose. on are directly attributable to central government average. by less than four per cent. the rate measures. The direct impact of import prices of inflation in Finland has been higher than was of almost the same size. and the agreement the average in the OEeD countries. The on agricultural incomes accounted for about acceleration of inflation in the second half of 1.2 percentage points. On the yea r-to-yea r 1973 and the first half of 1974 followed the basis. the consumer price index rose by 14.4 substantial rise in international prices. Due to per cent in 1976. the commodity structure of Finland's foreign trade - large energy and rawmaterial imports. From December 1976 until July of this year, with forest industry products accounting for the consumer price index rose by 8.7 per cent. about half of exports - the original external As compared with July 1976, the rise was shock was greater in Finland' than in most 13.3 per cent. Food prices accounted for other countries. Because of the great increase nearly 5 percentage points of the total rise in the prices of forest industry products, there in the consumer price index from July 1976 was no weakening in the terms of trade. and to July 1977. and the rise in the price of coffee this contributed to the prevalence of inflationary alone for about 2 percentage points. In the domestic demand pressures in 1974 and 1975. agreement on agricultural incomes. concluded The cost-of-living index rose by 17 per cent in the spring, the target prices for agricultural in 1974 and by 18 per cent in 1975. Unit produce were raised and this. together with a labour costs increased by almost 24 per cent decrease in the government subsidy on milk. in i 975. contributed to the increase in food prices. Almost continuously since 1968 there have In addition. the price level has been pushed been quite extensive price controls in Finland. up during the current year by an increase of Being based on a full-cost principle they have, three percentage points in the sales tax at the however. not curbed rises in prices induced beginning of 1977. the rise in some govern­ by cost pressures. Attempts were made at the ment prices. fees and tariffs. and by the effects beginning of 1976 to reduce inflationary ex­ of the six per cent devaluation of the Finnish pectations by intensifying price regulation. 1 mark at the beginning of April 1977. The A five-month pri,ce freeze was implemented direct impact of the devaluation on consumer during which prices. with certain exceptions. prices is estimated to be two percentage points. were frozen at the level prevailing on January most of which will come through during this 21. 1976. Although the price increases accel­ year. erated again after the end of the price freeze. this measure - together with the deceleration The price developments during the latter half of international inflation. fairly moderate col­ of this year will largely reflect prior events and lective agreements on wages and salaries. 2 economic decisions already made. The lagged and declining growth of demand - contributed effects of devaluation. the increase in rents to a slow-down in the rate of inflation. effected in the spring. and the new agreement on agricultural incomes to be concluded in During 1976 consumer prices rose by 12.3 per September may create new price pressures. However. at the same time there will be a fall I See Bulletin 8/1976. »Price regulation in Finland 1968-1976». in the growth of unit labour costs this year. 2 See Bulletin 7/1977. »Collective Agreements for March/May 1977-February 1979». owing to increases in productivity and a fall 1 1277068936 1 in the rate of wage increases.' It is estimated and indirecttaxes brought about by the financial that consumer prices will rise from December difficulties of the public sector, although these 1 976 to December 1977 by about 1 3 to 14 increases have been partly offset by granting per cent, which is slightly more than the rise income tax concessions. in 1976. On a year-to-year basis this means 13 per cent, or just less than in the previous The reduction of inflation to a five per cent year. Without devaluation, the increases in level in the years to come has been set as a the sales tax and the price of coffee, the rise goal by the Council of State in its Medium­ in the price level would have come to clearly Term Target Programme released in June of less than ten per cent. this year. The prospects for a reduction in the rate of inflation during 1978 are, in fact. supported by the concluded, fairly moderate, From the beginning of 1975, the restoration two-year collective agreements, which should of a balance-of-payments equilibrium and the help to bring the growth of unit labour costs curbing of inflation have been the major to the level prevailing in Finland's competitor targets for economic policy. Attempts have countries. The slowing-down of the rate of been made to reach these targets by pursuing price increases will also be aided by the stringtent monetary policies and by holding Government's tax and tariff policy projects back the expansion of the public sector. and by measures which are deSigned to promote However, the counter-inflationary effects of the corporate sector's efforts to raise their these measures have been lessened, to some capacity utilization and to increase their extent, by the increase in some prices, charges productivity. 1 See Bulletin 7/1977. »Collective agreements for March/May 1977-February 1979». August 23, 1 977 2 BAN K 0 F FIN LA N D Mill. mk 1976 1977 Aug. 31 Dec. 31 Aug. 8 Aug. 15 Aug. 23 Aug. 31 Assets Gold and foreign exchange receivables 2336 1 801 1 575 1 571 1 676 1 579 GOl(f····-·--···························--···-·········-·.-.----.-... -. ···---121---. 121127----i27---·127------:r27 Special drawing rights 265 236 191 191 191 191 Convertible currencies 1 284 1 004 446 507 502 379 Tied currencies 666 440 811 746 856 882 Other foreign receivables 1 503 1 660 1 869 1 862 1 863 1 857 ForeTgn bilis-·-·--303····-····-4~---·-43!f···-··--··4-31----·43-2"---···-42·6 Foreign bonds 373 397 497 497 497 497 Currency subscription to Finland's quota in the IMF 827 827 934 934 934 934 Receivables from financial institutions 3844 4674 4214 4343 4435 4327 --Chequeaccountsof the-CcimmerCliir-banks···--16S-····-·-·174-·---······--'6-3--···-·-8i- ·········-,-25"-···--- 85 Discounted bills 2749 2920 2684 2759 2745 2779 Bonds 357 332 350 507 350 467 Call money market advances 533 1204 947 944 1174 966 Other financial institution receivables 36 44 70 46 41 30 .~eceJy~bles from t~f:I.p.':I.~!i~~ec~~ ___._ ... _._ ..... _.~_~.~. _______ .. ~?. _____~. ___~~3_. __~ __ 360 Bonds 74 67 64 64 63 63 Total coinage 274 279 297 297 297 297 Other public sector receivables 40 101 4 2 1 0 ~_c::~iva~les .. !~~~ ...c::_~!p.9!.ation~ ________ ..... __~ __ . ... ·.. ·1400____ ·_M.~_· ____ ._· ____________1 500 1492 . _______ 1488 ._ ... _· __ ... __ '. ______1 439 .__ .__ New export bills 144 165 193 193 195 194 Financing of suppliers' credits 490 554 693 694 693 692 Bonds 209 198 179 179 179 178 Other corporate receivables 454 483 435 426 421 375 Other assets 49 53 75 75 76 76 Total 9417 10035 9598 9706 --- ._._-.----------_._-'._.---------9899 9638 liabilities Foreign exchange liabilities 169 101 99 95 95 91 - Convertlble accounts 123 ····-·-·-50----·-··---52""--·-·-------·-··-·--····---····..... -...... -.. -- 50 53 50 Tied accounts 46 51 47 45 42 41 Other for~!.g~J iabi Iit~~_ ...... _.. __ .. _______._ .. _....... ~ .. ~_~?_... ... _.. _...!~~_ ... _... __ ._._.~.. Q?9 ... 2131 2131 2131 IMF mark accounts 1665 1665 1772 1772 1772 1772 Allocations of special drawing rights 258 258 258 258 258 258 Term liabilities 101 101 101 Notes and coins in circulation 2858 2885 3091 3090 3049 3022 2 614---···2 635 2 828:-----:=-=-: Notes---··--··---·--·-··-·····-· .. ----.--- 2827 2786 2760 Coins 244 250 263 263 263 262 Deposit certificates in cirCulation __-,-18::c.:0~_--'.~ 180 __-=~_--'..::.:: 180 180 Claims of financial institutions 534 1 143 839 878 1 080 848 .