RESEARCH SERIES AIR QUALITY RENEWABLE ENERGY PATHWAYS IN ROAD TRANSPORT FIA FOUNDATION RESEARCH SERIES, PAPER 13 November 2020 Commissioned by: The FIA Foundation, 60 Trafalgar Square, London WC2N 5DS, United Kingdom The FIA Foundation is an independent UK registered charity which supports an international programme of activities promoting road safety, the environment and sustainable mobility, as well as funding motor sport safety research. Our aim is to ensure ‘Safe, Clean, Fair and Green’ mobility for all, playing our part to ensure a sustainable future. RENEWABLE The FIA Foundation Research Paper series seeks to provide interesting insights into current issues, using rigorous data analysis to generate conclusions which are highly relevant to current global and local policy debates. © 2020 REN21 and FIA Foundation ENERGY Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of REN21 and the FIA Foundation as the sources and copyright holders PATHWAYS and provided that the statement below is included in any derivative works. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. This publication should be cited as REN21 & FIA Foundation IN ROAD (2020), Renewable Energy Pathways in Road Transport, REN21 and FIA Foundation. Disclaimer TRANSPORT This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by REN21 and the FIA Foundation to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither REN21, the FIA Foundation nor any of their respective officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views or policies of the respective individual Members of REN21 or the FIA Foundation. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by REN21 or the FIA Foundation in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein, including any data and maps, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of REN21 and the FIA Foundation concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, and is without prejudice to the status or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers or boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Acknowledgements This report was written by Marion Vieweg and Flávia Guerra under the guidance of Rana Adib (REN21), Hannah E. Murdock (REN21) and Sheila Watson (FIA Foundation). Hend Yaqoob (REN21) provided valuable research support. This report benefited from valuable input and feedback from: Ahmed Al Qabany (ISDB), Daniel Bongart (GIZ), Till Bunsen (ITF), Carlos Cadena Gaitán (City of Medellín), Maruxa Cardama (Slocat), Pierpaolo Cazzola (ITF), Holger Dalkmann, Rob De Jong (UNEP), Lewis Fulton (UC Davis), Alagi Gaye (ISDB), Saehoon Kim (Hyundai), Pharoah Le Feuvre (IEA), Hugo Lucas (Government of Spain), Nikita Pavlenko (ICCT), Patrick Oliva (PPMC), Marcel Porras (City of Los Angeles), Eric Scotto (Akuo Energy), Philip Turner (UITP), Noé van Hulst (Government of the Netherlands/IPHE), Christelle Verstraeten (Chargepoint), Nick Wagner (IRENA). It also benefited from discussions at a workshop held in September 2020 with most of the above and additionally: Thomas André (REN21), Veronica Arias (CC35), Dalia Assoum (REN21), Jonathan Bonadio (EEB), Naomi Chevillard (SolarPower Europe), Clotilde de Rossi (SE4All), Paolo Frankl (IEA), Drew Kodjak (ICCT), Shuxin Lim (GWEC), Indradip Mitra (GIZ India), Antina Sander (RGI). SECTIONCONTENTS TITLE CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 7. KEY CHALLENGES HOLDING BACK RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 69 TRANSPORT 1. INTRODUCTION 9 8. GUIDELINES FOR ACTION 73 2. KEY CONCEPTS 15 2.1 SUSTAINABILITY 16 ANNEXES 79 2.2 THE AVOID-SHIFT-IMPROVE FRAMEWORK FOR DECARBONISING TRANSPORT 16 ANNEX I COMPARISON OF SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPTS 79 2.3 ACTORS 18 ANNEX II OVERVIEW OF BIOENERGY CLASSIFICATIONS 80 ANNEX III OVERVIEW OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION PROCESSES FOR TRANSPORT 81 3. TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS FOR ENHANCING RENEWABLES IN 19 TRANSPORT ACRONYMS 83 3.1 RENEWABLE ENERGY: THE FUEL PERSPECTIVE 20 3.2 TRANSPORT SECTOR PERSPECTIVES 25 GLOSSARY 84 3.3 THE NEXUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND TRANSPORT 31 OTHER NOTES 84 4. MARKET TRENDS FOR RE SOLUTIONS IN TRANSPORT 35 4.1 RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION 36 INDEXES 85 4.2 TRANSPORT MARKETS 42 FIGURES 85 4.3 THE NEXUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND TRANSPORT 44 TABLES 85 BOXES 86 5. POLICY AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS 49 SIDEBARS 86 5.1 THE RENEWABLE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE 50 5.2 THE TRANSPORT SECTOR PERSPECTIVE 53 ENDNOTES 87 5.3 THE NEXUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND TRANSPORT 59 FOOTNOTES 103 6. RENEWABLE ENERGY PATHWAYS FOR TRANSPORT 65 RESEARCH SERIES RENEWABLE ENERGY PATHWAYS IN ROAD TRANSPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Road transport is estimated to represent over 70% and has the lowest share of renewables, lagging far of GHG emissions from the overall transport sector behind developments in the power generation sector by 2050, if no further measures are taken. Energy as well as other end-use sectors. In 2018, transport demand for transport is growing much faster than any represented 29% of total final energy consumption, other sector. Transport still relies heavily on fossil fuels but only 3.7% of this was met by renewable sources. ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR, 2018 Transport total final energy accounts for 29% consumption 96.3% 3.7 % Non-renewable Renewable Energy Energy 3.4% Biofuel 0.3% Renewable Electricity Source: own illustration based on IEA sources. A rapid and fundamental shift is required in the supplemented by the supply of advanced biofuels, transport sector to enable the decarbonisation required particularly for use in heavy-duty trucks. to meet the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Renewable energy will need to play a fundamental role in Renewable energy solutions for the road transport the transport systems of the future, which will be much sector need to be embedded in a wider framework more complex, with multiple players, technologies and of actions that also reduce the demand for transport direct implications for energy generation. services, shift the choice of transport modes and increase the efficiency of vehicles (other elements of the Avoid- The transport and energy sectors are highly interlinked. Shift-Improve framework). Decarbonising the sector with To decarbonise our economy the transport and energy renewables will only be possible with ambitious policies sectors thus need to align their strategies. The uptake that address all these aspects and that take an integrated of renewables in road transport depends on the rapid view of the implications for the wider energy system, decarbonisation of the electricity sector, for direct use of considering the sustainability of the overall supply chain electricity and for the production of renewable hydrogen, of different technology solutions. 1 RESEARCH SERIES RENEWABLE ENERGY PATHWAYS IN ROAD TRANSPORT 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Experts need to make it easy for decision-makers Investment decisions on renewable energy generation Internal combustion engines dominate the vehicle and customers to manage increasing complexity. and distribution infrastructure focus on finding the market, accounting for 99% of the passenger cars THE ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ROAD TRANSPORT IN Renewable transport solutions need to be tailored to right technology for a given local context and depend produced worldwide, with the majority of these being THE OVERALL ENERGY SYSTEM APPROACH the specific context and use case. To achieve this, a on the specific local combination of demand, available gasoline or diesel. Shifts to new powertrains, such as large variety of actors need to improve collaboration to energy sources and feedstocks, distribution options battery electric or fuel cell electric vehicles, require RE in road transport Transport develop economically and financially viable solutions and economically feasible production processes. In major investments from the automotive sector as measures specific that appeal to end users. comparison, the road transport sector is traditionally well as for charging and fuelling infrastructure. Many measures (avoid, shift, more concerned with the vehicle technology and the countries have put in place incentives for vehicle Measures in efficiency, rail) required fuel infrastructure. purchases as well as for the development of associated energy supply infrastructure. As a result, electric car sales have been growing steadily in recent years. Increasing demand from transport electrification and ACTORS IN THE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTORS growing variable renewable energy generation require a new paradigm concerning how electricity systems Renewable energy actorsTBoth ransport sector actors work. Technical solutions to capture synergies between the transport and energy system exist: unidirectional