03 EUROMED SurVEY OF EXPerTS AND ACTors EURO-MEDITERRANEAN POLICIES IN THE LIGHT OF THE ARAB SPRING 03 EUROMED SurVEY OF EXPerTS AND ACTORS EURO-MEDITERRANEAN POLICIES IN THE LIGHT OF THE ARAB SPRING European Institute of the Mediterranean Consortium formed by: President Artur Mas, President of the Government of Catalonia Vice-Presidents José Manuel García-Margallo, Minister of Foreign Affaires and Cooperation of the Spanish Government Joana Ortega, Vice-President of the Government of Catalonia Xavier Trias, Mayor of Barcelona Town Council President of the Executive Committee Senén Florensa Director General Andreu Bassols Board of Trustees © European Institute of the Mediterranean Girona, 20 08010 Barcelona [email protected] www.iemed.org ISBN: 978-84-393-8885-2 June 2012 Euromed Survey Directors of the Survey Senén Florensa, President of Executive Committee, IEMed Andreu Bassols, Director General, IEMed Josep Ferré, Director Manager, IEMed IEMed ScientificT eam and Editors of the Survey Report Xavier Aragall, Technical Advisor on Euromed Policy Jordi Padilla, Mediterranean Yearbook and Euromed Documentary Sources Coordinator Marta Pont, Junior Research Fellow Qualitative Analysis Kalliope Agapiou-Josephides, Jean Monnet Chair, University of Cyprus, Nicosia Rabha Allam, Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), Cairo Ali Bilgic, Assistant Professor at Bilkent University, Department of International Relations, Ankara Giorgos Charalambous, University of Cyprus, Nicosia Elisabetta Ciuccarelli, Programme Officer of the Arab and Mediterranean Department Hanaa Ebeid, Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), Cairo Annette Jünemann, Professor at the Institut fuer Internationale Politik, Helmut Schmidt Universitaet, Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Hamburg Zouhir Louassini, Journalist, Italian Radio and Television (RAI), Rome Erwan Lannon, Professor of European Law, University of Ghent and College of Europe, Associate Researcher at the EU Institute of Security Studies, Brussels Helle Malmvig, Senior Researcher, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen Karim Makdisi, Associate Director, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) at the American University of Beirut (AUB), Beirut Nadia Marzouki, Jean Monnet Fellow, European University Institute, Florence Fabrizio Tassinari, Senior Researcher, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen Lurdes Vidal, Head of the Arab and Mediterranean Department and Editor-in-Chief of Afkar/Ideas Technical Coordination and Assistance Annette Jüenemann, Professor at the Institut fuer Internationale Politik, Helmut Schmidt Universitaet, Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Hamburg Erwan Lannon, Professor of European Law, University of Ghent and College of Europe, Associate Researcher at the EU Institute of Security Studies Maria Seco, Institut Opinió 2000 (IO2000) Adrià Mecader, Institut Opinió 2000 (IO2000) Design and Layout: Yvonne Trigueros, Elena Castillo Printing: Futurgràfic Legal Deposit: B. 22300-2012 This project IS funded by the European Union This activity is part of the programme “Promoting mutual awareness, understanding and cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the European Neighbourhood Region (South)” (Europe-Aid/125411/ACT/C/Multi- Lot3), co-funded by the European Union through the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) regional track. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of its authors and can in no way be considered as reflecting the views of the European Union or of the European Institute of the Mediterranean. CONTENTS Introduction 06 Andreu Bassols Presentation 08 Senén Florensa 10 The Third Euromed Survey 11 I. Methodology 12 II. Survey Sample 17 III. Survey Follow-up 18 Synthesis of results 31 Descriptive report (Jordi Padilla, Marta Pont, Xavier Aragall) 32 Monitoring of Progress and Achievements of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership/ Union for the Mediterranean in 2011 and European Neighbourhood Policy in 2011 40 Thematic Dossier 41 I. National politics and Euro Mediterranean relations after the “Arab Spring” 47 II. The EU response to changes in its neighbourhood 55 III. The Euromed policies in regards to political and security cooperation 66 Prospective and policy recommendations 85 Qualitative report 86 Context, Patterns and Nuances in Monitoring the Progress and Achievements of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) in 2011 Kalliope Agapiou-Josephides, Giorgos Charalambous 94 The “Arab Spring” and the External Actor’s Role within the Euro-Mediterranean Region Helle Malmvig, Fabrizio Tassinari 100 The Arab Spring, the EU and the Tension of Opposites Hanaa Ebeid 108 Perceptions on Democracy and Islamism: Hypotheses and Second-Guessed Predictions Lurdes Vidal, Elisabetta Ciuccarelli 114 Prospects of sustainable democracy and Role of political Islam: Morocco Zouhir Louassini 118 Tunisians’ perspective on democracy and political Islam: a moderate optimism Nadia Marzouki 122 The Islamists in the Realm of the Egyptian Revolution Rabha Seif Allam 128 The responses of the European Union to the changes in its neighbourhood Erwan Lannon 142 Euromed Political and Security Cooperation: A Normative Perspective Annette Jünemann 148 The Qualitative Analysis of the Results of the IEMed Survey 2011 Regarding the Euro- Mediterranean Political and Security Cooperation in the Wake of the Arab Spring Ali Bilgic 156 Prospects for Euro-Mediterranean Relations: Increasing Relevance of Migration Management and the Switch of Attention away from the Arab-Israeli Conflict Xavier Aragall, Marta Pont 162 Implications of Palestinian Application for UN Membership on Euromed Relations and Arab-Israeli Conflict Karim Makdisi Annexes 169 I List of respondents 181 II Target and effective sample of the surveY 185 IV Questionnaire 209 V SET of ALL results EuroMed SurVEY 7 Andreu bassols. Director General, IEMed. The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) has been entrusted by the European Com- mission to conduct, for the period 2009-2012, a yearly Survey of actors and experts on Euro- pean-Mediterranean relations. This activity is part of the programme “Promoting mutual aware- ness, understanding and cooperation between the EU and the European Neighbourhood Region (South)”, co-funded by the European Union through the European Neighbourhood and Partner- ship Instrument (ENPI) regional track. This project is fully in line with the IEMed’s mission as a think tank devoted to the analysis of and proactive thinking about Euro-Mediterranean relations. This ambitious Survey has three main objectives: Assessing the progress, achievements and shortcomings of the various dimensions of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, encompassing both the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Union for the Mediterranean; Developing an instrument for critical reflection able to mobilize experts and policy-makers operating in the design of Euromed policies; Identifying the main challenges and future issues at stake in the Mediterranean so as to be able to make appropriate policy recommendations. Building on the experience gained from the two previous years, this third Survey opted for a shorter and more focused questionnaire, which dealt mainly with the aftermath of the Arab Spring, given the high relevance of the topic, and with the Political and Security basket of the Partnership, for its obvious links with the events that have occurred in the southern shore. The fieldwork of the present Survey was conducted between December 2011 and January 2012, coinciding with the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Arab uprisings, at a time when politi- cal transitions in the region were under way and a new mapping of actors and regional power balances was still being shaped. A total of 695 experts, policy-makers and representatives of civil society from the 43 member countries of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) have partici- pated in this year’s Survey, which represents a 16% increase compared to the last one. This report summarises and discusses the results of this third Survey, bearing in mind that it is not a mere public opinion poll, but an attempt to identify and critically assess the major successes and shortcomings, as well as the potential, of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) from the point of view of experts and actors directly involved in the process. As regards the structure, the report is divided into two main parts: a descriptive analysis of the quantitative data and a qualitative section meant to interpret and shed light on the results ob- tained. For the preparation of the qualitative section, which consists of twelve articles in total, 16 experts from different Mediterranean countries were contacted by the IEMed. They were briefed to analyse the results of the 2011 Survey in their contributions in the light of the Arab uprisings and the state of play in the Arab countries, while also taking into account the latest developments in the Euro-Mediterranean institutional architecture. EuroMed SurVEY 9 SenÉN florensa. President of the Executive Committee, IEMed. The first Survey was marked by the setting up of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) as an attempt to revitalise and revamp the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) fifteen years after the launch of the Barcelona Process. While building on the monitoring exercise of the state of play of the Partnership started in the 2009 Survey, the second Survey also included a section devoted to taking stock of the progress made towards