JAGUAR (PANTHERA ONCA) POPULATION DYNAMICS, FEEDING ECOLOGY, HUMAN INDUCED MORTALITY, AND CONSERVATION IN THE VÁRZEA FLOODPLAIN FORESTS OF AMAZONIA By EMILIANO ESTERCI RAMALHO A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2012 1 © 2012 Emiliano Esterci Ramalho 2 To my mother and father 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank my parents for their love and unconditional support of my work. I thank Mariana Mieko Sakamoto, Paulo Faiad, Joana Macedo, and Daniel Rocha for their friendship and vital assistance in data collection. I thank Anselmo Cardoso “Capitão” for his assistance, friendship, wisdom, and incredible knowledge of the Várzea. I thank João “Jacaré” da Silva Carvalho, Afonso José Filho Carvalho “Ferro”, Dalvino, Almir “Matupá”, Paulo, Sr. Afonso, and Olavita for their participation in the field and joy of participating in my jaguar research project. I thank all the communities of Mamirauá and Amanã Sustainable Development Reserves for their trust and willingness to participate in my research and provide critical information for the success of this study. I thank José Márcio Ayres for his trust in my potential to execute this study and create a long-term jaguar research project in Mamirauá Reserve. I thank Leandro Castello for my first opportunity to work in Amazonia and all the learning and opportunities that came from my internship with him. I thank Ana Rita Alves, Helder Queiroz, and João Valsecchi for their continued support of my research throughout the years. I thank Jim Nichols, Katie Sieving, Mel Sunquist, and Brian Child for their great courses at University of Florida, wisdom, and willingness to be a part of my committee. It was an honor for me to have such brilliant minds be a part of my PhD. I thank Jim Hines, Claudia Penaloza, and Catherine Langtimm for the invaluable assistance in the analysis of the data. I thank Brandy Jo Petronio for her friendship and grammar review of this dissertation. I thank the crew of boat Gaivota for transporting me safely during field work. I thank the whole staff of Mamirauá Sustainable Development Institute for their assistance throughout the years. 4 This work was made possible by funding and logistical support from Mamirauá Sustainable Development Institute, the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), Fulbright, Wildlife Conservation Society, Panthera, and University of Florida. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 9 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ 11 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 1 THE JAGUAR CONSERVATION PROBLEM IN BRAZIL – A VALUES PROBLEM .............................................................................................................. 15 The Policy Sciences Method for Solving Problems ................................................. 19 The Jaguar Conservation Problem in Brazil (Problem Orientation) ........................ 22 Definition of the Conservation Problem ............................................................ 22 Current Goal of the Policy Process .................................................................. 23 Historical Trends and Conditions (Analysis of the Problem) ............................. 23 Habitat Loss ..................................................................................................... 23 Direct Killing of Jaguars .................................................................................... 28 Decrease of Prey Populations .......................................................................... 33 Jaguar Population Vigor ................................................................................... 34 Future Projections ............................................................................................ 35 The Social Context ................................................................................................. 35 The Decision Process ............................................................................................. 39 Research and Planning (Intelligence Function) ................................................ 39 Recommending and Debating Policies (Promotion Function) .......................... 41 Creating, Implementing and Enforcing Rules (Prescription, Invocation and Application Functions) ................................................................................... 41 Evaluation and Termination of Rules (Appraisal and Termination Functions) .. 43 Current Solutions, Recommended Solutions, and Alternative Solutions ................. 43 Bans on Hunting and Trade of Jaguars and Prey ............................................. 43 Protected Areas ................................................................................................ 45 Better Management of Livestock ...................................................................... 46 Techniques for Adverse Conditioning of Predators .......................................... 47 Corridors ........................................................................................................... 48 Translocations .................................................................................................. 49 Compensation Schemes .................................................................................. 49 Ecotourism ....................................................................................................... 50 Sports Hunting .................................................................................................. 51 Environmental Education.................................................................................. 52 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 52 6 2 JAGUAR (PANTHERA ONCA) POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ACTIVITY PATTERNS IN A SUSTAINABLE USE RESERVE IN THE VÁRZEA FLOODPLAIN FORESTS OF BRAZILIAN AMAZONIA .......................................... 69 Methods .................................................................................................................. 72 Study Site ......................................................................................................... 72 Várzea Floodplain Forests ......................................................................... 72 Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve ........................................... 74 Field Methods ................................................................................................... 79 Camera-trap surveys ................................................................................. 79 Foot snare live captures ............................................................................. 81 Data Analysis ................................................................................................... 82 Population density ...................................................................................... 82 Survival and recapture probabilities ........................................................... 85 Activity patterns .......................................................................................... 87 Results .................................................................................................................... 88 Density ............................................................................................................. 88 Survival and Recapture Probabilities ................................................................ 89 Population Structure and Reproduction ............................................................ 90 Activity Patterns ................................................................................................ 91 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 92 3 ESTIMATING LARGE CARNIVORE MORTALITY FROM HUNTING USING CAPTURE-RECAPTURE MODELS: THE CASE OF JAGUARS IN THE AMAZON FLOODPLAIN FORESTS ..................................................................... 114 Methods ................................................................................................................ 119 Study Sites ..................................................................................................... 119 Characterizing Hunting Events ....................................................................... 122 Estimating Total Number of Jaguars Killed using CR Methodology ............... 124 Important Assumptions for Estimation of Total Number of Jaguars Killed ...... 127 Results .................................................................................................................. 128 Distribution of Hunting Events among Environments ..................................... 128 Seasonality of Hunting Events ........................................................................ 129 Hunting Pressure on Jaguars and Pumas ...................................................... 130