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Box 300, 1400 Vienna, Austria Tel: (+43-1) 26026-0 · www.unido.org · [email protected] I Development and Transfer of Technology Series TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES IN THE MACHINE-TOOL INDUSTRY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES :\BSTR:\CT R~f.: IDl31~ Februar~ ( '):\5 '.\c:w Y<lrk De,·elopment and Transfer of Technology Series No. 19 Serie '"Mise au point et transfert des techniques"' NO 19 Serie .. Desarrollo y transferencia de tecnologia" Num. 19 TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES IN THE MACHINE-TOOL INDUSTRY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LES PERSPECTIVES TECHNOLOGIQUES DE L'INDUSTRIE DE LA MACHINE-OUTIL ET LEURS ... INCIDENCES SUR LES PAYS EN DEVELOPPEMENT PERSPECTIVAS TECNOLOGICAS DE LA INDUSTRIA DE MAQUINAS HERRAJ\ttlENTAS Y SUS CONSECVENCIAS PARA LOS PAISES EN DESARROLLO ABSTRACT I SOMMAIRE /EXTRACTO ID!.112/ Ah, tract PrintC"ll in ·\11'.,1ri.1 V ;-.;<•. ;.'~;<f, \.1.n J9)(i\ f1.noo i:ngli,h/f-' rench/Spa n1\h ABSlRACT The ability of the machine-tool industry to prodo :e the multifarious types of machine tools necessary for industrialization profoundly affrcts the industrial and economic progress of any nation. Many developing countries have nevertheless lagged behind iP establishing their capital goods industry in general and their machine-tool industry in particular. Estimated world production of the machine-tool industry in 1979 was $22. 7 billion. Of the 33 major machine-tool-produciPg countries, 22 developed countries accounted for 92 per cent of the total production. In order to guide policy-makers in developing COL'.ntries in the further developm.:nt of this crucial sec.or. the present publication provides for a review of the machine-tool industry throughout the world in the context of developed and developing countries and of the technological trends in machiPc-too: design and manufacture, as well as production engineering. An assessment is made of the implications of these trends for developing countries. On the basis of a forecast that, by about 1985. assembling jobs will be integrated into other production routines, making use of computer-aided manufacturing systems. that by about 1987 .. approximately 15 per cent of the total machine-tool production will consist of flexible production systems. that by about 1990 robots will attain human ;::apabilities in final assembly sequences and that by about 1995 almost 50 per cent of the '.Ina) assembly in the automotive industry will be achieved by programmable autor.iation and robots, an analysis is made of possible action .1:: developing countries to bring their progcamme~ for the production of machine tools into line with some of the latest advances in technological developments in the incustrialized nation'>. SOMMAIRE La C3p:J.cite de l'industrie de la machine-outil a produire Jes divers types de machines-outils necessaires nour !'industrialisation ir.flue fortement sur le progres industriel et economique d'un pays. Or de nombreux pays en dheloppement sont en retard pour etablir leur i>ldu.~trie prnductric~ de biens d"equipement et en particulier cel!e des machines-outils. On a e~time la production mondiale de l'industrie de la m~chine-outil en 1979 a 22. 7 milliards de dollars. Sur Jes 33 grands pays projucteurs de mad.ines-outils. 22 pays dhel ·opes assuraient a eux seuls 92 r( de la production t'Jtale. La presente publication passe en rerne la situation de l'industrie de la machine-outil dar.s Jes ~ivers pays - pays dheloppes et pays en dheloppement - et les tendances technologiques en matiere de conception et de fabrication de machines-outils. ainsi que d'organisation de la prnducrion. et repond au souci de guider Jes dirigear1ts des pays en dheloppement dans les efforts qu'ils accomplissent pour developper ce secteur d'une importance capitale. II est procede a une ~\·aluation des incidences de ces tendances sur les pays en developpement. .. En partant de la prevision que d'ici a 1985. les taches de montage seront integrees dans d"aucres taches roi.;tinieres de production faisant appel a des systemes de fabrication ::a:lo'.na"isc!s. que d'ici a 1987. 15 r; environ de la production totale de machines-outils ~era 'ffectuee par d::s systemes de prnch. :tion polyvalents. que d'ici a J990. Jes robots poUH')llt ;-.ssurer les sequt>nces finales de montage aussi bien que des etres humains et que d"ici a 1995. pres <le 50 r·; des operations final:~s de montage dans l'industrie automobile seront rfalisee5 par .rntomatisation prngramm;ibk et par des robots. on analyse comment Jes pays en dheloppement pqurraient orienter leurs prog~arirnes de production de machines-outils en fonction de certains des d·~rniers progres technnlogiquc.> oar·;-; de" pays i11dustrialises. 5 EXTRACTO La capacidad de la industria de maquinas herramientas para producir los multiples tipos de maquinas herramientas que precisa !a industrializaci6n influye profundamente en el progreso economico e industrial de cualquier naci6n. Ahora bien, muchos paises en desarrollo se han quedado rezagados en la creacion de una industria de bienes de capital en ge"leral y de una industria de maquina!; herramientas en particular. Se calcula que en 1979 la produccion mundial de la industria de maquinas herramientas ascendio a 22. 700 millones de dolares. De los 33 principales paises productores de maquinas herramientas, a 22 paises en desarrollo les correspondi6 el 92 Ck de la pr0ducci6n total. A fin de orientar a 19s formuladores de politicas de los pai!;es en desarrollo sobre la manera de continuar el crecimiento de este sector crucial, la presente publicaci6n estudia la industria de !as maquinas herramientas en todo el mundo. tanto en los paises desarrollados como en los paises en desarrollo, las tende:icias tecnologicas del diseiio y 12 fabricacion de las miquinas herramientas, y la ingenieria de produccion. Ademas, hace una evaluaci6n de las consecuencias de estas tendencias para !os paises en desarrollo. • Se pronostica que para 1985 aproximadamenre los trabajos de montaje estaran integra<i0s en otros procedimientos de produccion mediante sistemas de fabricacion equipados con computadoras; que para 1987 aproximadamente alrededor del 15% de la produccion total de maquinas herramientas se efectuara mediante sistemas flexibles de produccion; que para 1990 aproximadamente los robJts podran dest"moeiiar las mismas funciones que el hombre en las fases finales del montaje: y que para 1995 aproximaciamente casi el 50 % del montaje final de la industria automotriz se llevara a cabo mediante la automacion programable y los robots. Partierido de estos pron6sticos, se analizan las medidas que puedan adoptar los paises en desarrollo para poner sus programas de produccion de maquinas herramientas en consonancia con algunos de los tiltimos adelantos de la evolucion tecnologica de los paises industrializados. 7 TECHSOLOGIC:\i. PERSPECTI\'ES I~ THE ~.1:\CHI;..;E-TOOL ISDL'.STRY :\~D THEIR IMPLICATIOSS FOR DE\'ELOPl.'G corsTRIES l"'.\IHD '.\.HIO'.\S !'.\DLSTRIAL DE\"ELOP'.\IE'.\T ORGA'.\IZATIO'.\ \"ienna Development and Transfer of Technology Series No. 19 TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES IN THE MACHINE-TOOL INDUSTRY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR DE'/ELOPING COUNTRIES UNITED NATIONS New York. J 985 \kntt••n ,,f '.·1rm name' anJ ,,,mmc:r..:ial pr,>Jud' J,,,:, !l•>t lntfJI~ the .:nJc>rsemeni c>f the: l"nttc:J :-.;atll>n' lndti-tn.11 Dncl.•pment !lr;;ant1at1.in 1l Sil)()). anJ an~ failun: t•> mc:nti,m a particular firm. ,,,mmc:r.:;al pnidm:t •'r rr111,,.t:-.' ltl LllfiOt:1,,:(111n \\Uh tht:' tt:Lhth1h1g:1t:' Jc:,Lr~hc:d tn tl-ti..;. \t.liUffit: i'.' nt.l[ a '.\ign llf <.h:-.a~pfl''l\al. !he Jc,;gnall•>n' cmpl•>HoJ and the pr.:,.:ntJtll>n ,,f the: m:itaial j;1 this J,>cumc:nt d,, n,ll tmpl~ the: .:xprc:"i,1n ,,f ,1p:- ••'11tlt,>n \\hat,"c":r ,,n the: part .,f the Sccrc:tanat ,,f the l"nitc:d :-.;c:!i,,n, C•>nccrmng the: legal 'tatu' ,,f a:-i:. i.:11t!ntr~. tt:rr1t11r~ . ...:tt~ llf ~Hl."a 11r tlf 1t' authlHitie'. llf (nncc:rn1ng th~ ddimitati .. 10nf1b fr,1ntit:r'.\ tlf bllUndarie,_ (SS;\ 0250-SO IX Preface ..\ccording to one \·iew. the most urgent task of de\·etoping countries is to meet the b.:sic needs of the poor. using simple. small-scale appropriate technology. An opposing view is that modern ~echnology and rapid industrialization alone can soh·e the problems of developing countries.