1 The Politicisation of Evidence: A Critical Realist Approach to Data-Driven Education Planning, Practice and Exclusion in Syria Tomoya Sonoda UCL Institute of Education Thesis submitted for the degree of doctor in education July 2020 2 Declaration I, Tomoya Sonoda, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. Signature Tomoya Sonoda 3 Abstract Grounding aid planning in empirical evidence on ‘what works’ has gained currency in the field of education and conflict. However, mainstream debates on the evidence base rarely investigate the politicisation of data, even though it may be more at play than in non-conflict settings. This research aims to examine what forms of discourse play out behind data-driven education planning and practice, and whether and in what ways the politicisation of evidence may enact educational exclusion. I take a critical realist approach to analysing aid professionals’ presuppositions of evidence and the reality it claims. I draw on semi-structured interviews with 31 stakeholders in and outside Syria. The findings reveal that the Government of Syria, Western pro-opposition donors and aid agencies deploy political, emotional and managerial discourses for their advantage. These discourses generate methodological bias in evidence production and use. Stakeholders fabricate, politically reinterpret or selectively deny particular data, justifying their allocation of education resources and services in ways that favour their partisan groups over others. Consequently, vulnerable children in siege, hard-to-reach opposition-held areas and government-retaken areas were kept out of the equation of education assistance. Another emerging finding is that stakeholders position themselves strategically to both use the rhetoric of objectivity implicit in numerical data and recognise its politicisation. Analysing the complexities around how evidence is constructed and used in policies and programming, the research offers critical realist insights into aid 4 professionalism. Measurable data are susceptible to methodological and political contestations in conflict-affected contexts, and therefore cannot objectively represent the whole reality. Aid professionals should reflect on what data tell and do not tell, and what presuppositions are inscribed in evidence. This helps professionals to attend to conflict-affected children’s realities and educational needs that they cannot simply observe and quantify, thereby making education planning and practice fairer and more just. 5 Impact Statement This research examines data-driven education planning and the resulting phenomenon of educational exclusion in the conflict-affected context of Syria. It is an attempt to challenge predominant empiricism in humanitarian aid. I encourage policy professionals and education practitioners to shift decision making away from an overreliance on quantifiable evidence on ‘what works’ towards reflexivity on what forms of discourse play out underneath the statistics used for aid financing and programming. The thesis offers insights into the scholarship on education and conflict by rethinking from a critical realist perspective about what we believe is real and how evidence claims it in the case of education aid to Syria. It critiques positivistic faith in which objective reality is presumed to be only known through particular forms of empirical knowledge and observation. It also challenges an interpretive model that sees reality as socially constructed and thus reduces it into perceptions, interpretations and beliefs in people’s mind. For critical realists, both approaches do not necessarily allow researchers and practitioners to understand what real mechanisms or causal forces exist and how they engender the politicisation of evidence and the associated educational exclusion in conflict contexts. From a critical realist perspective, I unpack the politicisation of education data in Syria for the period between 2013 and 2019, and demonstrate how ostensibly scientific data analytics are shaped by stakeholders’ political, emotional and managerial discourses. In so doing, I alert aid professionals to the fact that uncritically promoting an 6 evidence base is dangerous, as it may exclude vulnerable children in conflict from learning opportunities, and even justify their marginalisation as natural. In addition, the thesis presents how critical realism performs as an alternative approach to analysing the politicisation of evidence in education and conflict. I have documented the process of abductive and retroductive inference as part of data analysis. The analysis explores what conditions must be in place in order for the politicisation of evidence and the resulting educational exclusion to occur in Syria. The process allows me to detect different discourses and preconceived idées fixes in place under the guise of an evidence base. If aid professionals are to serve the most vulnerable children in Syria who may not be reflected in official statistics or those who are deliberately excluded from educational assistance for political reasons, it is crucial to attend to such causal mechanisms that are inconspicuous but structure our thinking, knowing and behaviour. This is vital but largely absent in mainstream debates about the evidence agenda in education and conflict. Furthermore, the thesis presents how unseen discourses shape what we know and what we do not know, and they have influence over educational resource allocation and beneficiary selection in Syria. It encourages policy professionals and aid practitioners to not only critically reflect on the underlying discourses of an evidence base but also challenge the prevailing political economy value systems within international aid, be honest about part of their complicit and expedient decision making, and redress their self- serving human mentality. Problematising these unseen causal mechanisms is necessitated to address the structural educational exclusion in Syria and make real transformative change in professionalism in education and conflict. 7 Contents Declaration ................................................................................................... 2 Abstract ........................................................................................................ 3 Impact Statement ......................................................................................... 5 Contents ....................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables .............................................................................................. 11 List of Figures ............................................................................................ 12 List of Acronyms ........................................................................................ 13 Reflective Statement .................................................................................. 15 Acknowledgements ................................................................................... 21 Chapter 1. Introduction ............................................................................. 22 1.1. The Rise of Evidence in Education and Conflict ........................ 22 1.2. Research Aim and Rationales ..................................................... 25 1.2.1. The aim of the research .................................................................... 25 1.2.2. Rationales ........................................................................................ 25 1.3. Defining Evidence, Discourse and Politicisation ....................... 28 1.3.1. Evidence........................................................................................... 28 1.3.2. Discourse within power/knowledge ................................................... 29 1.3.3. Three forms of politicisation of evidence ........................................... 30 1.4. Organisation of the Thesis ........................................................... 33 Chapter 2. The Context of Syria: Conflict, Humanitarian Situations and Education Aid ............................ 34 2.1. The Background of Political Conflict .......................................... 34 2.2. Humanitarian Situations and Aid Architecture in Syria ............. 40 2.2.1. Siege tactics and the uncertainty of knowing .................................... 40 2.2.2. Political polarisation in the aid sector ................................................ 42 2.2.3. Education aid to Syria ....................................................................... 47 Chapter 3. Exploring the Evidence Agenda within Education Planning and Politicisation in Conflict .................................. 53 3.1. Can Data Really Tell What Works in Conflict? ........................... 53 3.1.1. The premise of the ‘what works’ agenda ........................................... 54 8 3.1.2. Critique I: Danger of counting the only thing countable ..................... 60 3.1.3. Critique II: Risk of overlooking multidimensional inequalities ............ 63 3.1.4. Critique III: Myth of evidence for de-politicisation .............................. 65 3.2. The Politicisation of Education in Conflict ................................. 69 3.2.1. The contested roles of education in conflict ...................................... 70 3.2.2. Political dimensions of education .....................................................