University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Doctoral Dissertations 1896 - February 2014 1-1-1979 Continuity and change in municipal budgetary choice : a comparative study of two cities. Patrick Jackson Cowles University of Massachusetts Amherst Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations_1 Recommended Citation Cowles, Patrick Jackson, "Continuity and change in municipal budgetary choice : a comparative study of two cities." (1979). Doctoral Dissertations 1896 - February 2014. 1905. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations_1/1905 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations 1896 - February 2014 by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN MUNICIPAL BUDGETARY CHOICE: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO CITIES A Dissertation Presented By PATRICK JACKSON COWLES Submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Massachusetts in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY February 1979 Political Science Department (c) Patrick Jackson Cowles 1979 All Rights Reserved ii CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN MUNICIPAL BUDGETARY CHOICE: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO CITIES A Dissertation Presented By PATRICK JACKSON COWLES Approved as to style and content by: Fred A. Kramer, Chairperson of Committee Robert A. Shanley, Member / 1 \ U Craig L. Moo He , Member Glen Gordon, Department Head Political Science Department ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to recognize the help of my committee in the development and completion of this work. Fred A. Kramer, my chairperson, provided both much needed guidance and encouragement when they were needed. For his wit, charm, and sound counsel, I thank him. For Robert A. Shanley, I thank him for forcing me to clarify my logic and my lan- guage. He has been a constant source of support and kindness. And to Craig L. Moore, I owe a great debt in the development of my method- ology. Without his generous assistance and methodological sophisti- cation, this study would have been much the poorer. Acknowledgment must also be given to my wife, Ellen, whose loving support sustained me throughout. Her good humor and gentle encouragement have been greatly needed and appreciated. And finally, I wish to thank my typist, Jean Julian, for her hard work and perseverance. To all of the above, I owe a great debt, and credit for the virtues of this study must be shared with them. Needless to say, the author alone takes full credit for its shortcomings. iv ABSTRACT Continuity and Change in Municipal Budgetary Choice: A Comparative Study of Two Cities May 1979 Patrick J. Cowles, B.A. , Marshall University M.A., Marshall University, Ph.D., University of Massachusetts Directed by: Professor Fred A. Kramer The primary purpose of this dissertation is to develop and test new operationalized definitions for the concepts of incremental and non- incremental budgetary decisions. Previous definitions have been quite rigid and simplistic. Thus, the ultimate proof of the validity of incremental budgeting models, viz. that incremental systems result in a predominance of incremental decisions, has not been adequately demonstrated. In order to resolve this dilemma, two independent sets of operationalized definitions are developed. The first, a quantitative indicator labelled the Ratio of Shares, is based upon the notion of budgetary "fair shares." Patterned on the shift-share analysis used in regional economics, this technique provides a model of an ideal incremental decision. In turn, actual Ratio of Shares values may be compared to this ideal value. Thus, to the extent that actual values vary from the ideal value, evidence is obtained that an actual decision varies from an ideal incremental decision. A measure of dispersion v (standard deviation units) is then used to separate probable incremen- tal decisions from non- incremental ones. The second set of definitions is based upon interviews with individuals who have been directly involved in the making of specific budgetary decisions. Labelled the "typical choice" approach, this technique involves asking public officials a series of questions in which they define how budgetary decisions are typically made. Fol- lowing this series, they are then asked whether a specific decision with which they were involved was made in a typical or atypical fashion. On the whole, it is found that typical decisions appear to correspond to incremental choices, while atypical decisions correspond to non- incremental ones. Using budget data from two Massachusetts cities, these two sets of operationalized definitions are then compared, with the finding that they generate high levels of agreement in their classifications of specific decisions. Moreover, incremental decisions are found to occur more frequently than non- incremental ones. However, non- incremental choice appears to occur much more frequently than is often presumed. Reasons for both incremental and non- incremental decisions are analyzed with the conclusion that non- incremental decisions gen- erally occur due to factors external to the decision-making hier- archy' s control. Finally, a variety of other operationalized definitions (such as those suggested by Wildavsky and Fenno) are compared to the typical vi choice approach, and the resulting levels of agreement are compared to the level of agreement found for the Ratio of Shares indicator. The results of these comparisons are that the Ratio of Shares technique and the approach suggested by Fenno appear to be the most reliable of the quantitative classifiers. However, given the exploratory nature of this study, the need for further research is recognized. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGI4ENTS j_ v Chapter I. BUDGETARY CHOICE: THEORIES AND METHODOLOGIES 1 Introduction 1 A Review of Current Theories of Budgetary Choice ... 1 A Critique of Major Methodologies in the Study of Budgeting 9 Towards a New Research Design 17 An Outline of the Remaining Chapters 32 Summary 33 II. THE RATIO OF SHARES AS AN INDICATOR OF INCREMENTALISM: SOME STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS 35 Introduction 35 An Ideal Model of an Incremental Budgetary Process and an Hypothesis 35 A Description of the Data from the Two Case Cities . 40 A "Test" of the Hypothesis 55 The Correlations Between Funding Periods 75 Concluding Remarks 80 III. GENERAL PERCEPTIONS OF THE BUDGETARY PROCESS IN CITY A AND CITY B 82 Introduction and Methodological Considerations .... 82 The Formal Budgetary Processes 86 90 An Incremental Model of Municipal Budgetary Systems . Decision Rules and Budgetary Roles in Cities A and B 106 Some Conclusions and Final Observations 143 AND NON- IV. AN APPROACH TO DEFINING INCREMENTAL 146 INCREMENTAL BUDGETARY CHOICES . _ , , 146 Introduction Methodological Matters: The Hypotheses -L4b A Test for the Hypotheses ^3 159 Findings on the Validity of the Hypotheses Beyond Testing the Hypotheses ^ Summary viii V. A COMPARISON OF SYSTEMS TO CLASSIFY INCREMENTAL AND NON- INCREMENTAL DECISIONS 174 Some Concluding Comments 183 VI. SUMMARIES AND CONCLUSIONS 190 Introduction 190 Methodological Conclusions 190 Substantive Conclusions 197 Incrementalism and Other Models of Urban Policy Analysis 201 Comparing the Models 219 Final Comments 221 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 224 APPENDIX 230 ix 0 LIST OF TABLES 1. Descriptive Statistics for R Data of City A with S Values > than an R of 6. Excluded . ^ 2. Descriptive Statistics for R Data of City B with Values > than an R of 6.0 Excluded 54 3. Is There a Significant Difference Between the Obtained Adj. R and the E(Adj. R ) 58 B S 4. Is There a Significant Difference Between the Obtained Adj. R and the E (Adj . R )? 59 s s 5. The Incidence of the Number of Tests of Means Out of a Total of Eight Tests per Organizational Category of Data Indicate an Incremental Decision Process (As Derived from Tables 3 and 4) 60 6. A Comparison of the Rate of Non-Incrementalism Approach (Rate of NI) to the Test of Means Approach (T of M) for Classifying Annual Budgetary Processes as Incremental (I) or Non- Incremental (NI) 62 7. The Number and Percent of Agreements Generated Between the Test of Means Approach and the "Two Rates" Approach for Each Organizational Category's Budget Data for the Eight Funding Change Periods 68 8. Is the Actual Level of Agreement Between the Two Indicators in Each City Significantly Different From a "Near-Perfect" Level of Agreement? 72 9. Pearson's Coefficients of Correlation for the Ratio of Shares of a Given Annual Funding Change Period with Succeeding Annual Funding Change Periods 76 10. Interviewees by General Category 83 11. The Safe Base Rule 112 12 12. The Increase Focus Rule I 114 13. The Fair Share Rule X 14. The Maintenance Rule (A) 117 15. The Maintenance Rule (B) 12 o 16. The Marginal Growth Rule 12 2 The 17. Budgetary Goals of Chief Executives 128 18. Chief Executives as Budget Request Cutters 131 19. The Budgetary Goals of Agency and Program Heads 132 20. Program and Agency Heads as Budget Padders 134 21. The Budgetary Goals of the City Councils 136 22. City Councils as Rubber Stamps 138 23. The Distribution of Total Decisions, Nonduplicated Organizational Units, and Number of Interviewed Officials by Organizational Category by City 157 24. The Number and Percent of S Unit-Based Incremental and Non- Incremental Classifications Compared to the Number and Percent of Agreed-upon Incremental and Non- Incremental Decisions: By Organizational Category, and by City 160 25. The Number and Percentage of Agreements Within Each S-Unit Category for Each City and for Both Cities Combined 162 26. Is the Number of Agreements and Disagreements Generated From the Pbl, PsNI, and PbNI Classifications Signifi- cantly Different From a Specified Random Distribution Wherein the Number of Agreements is Equal to the Number of Disagreements? 164 27. A Comparison of Agreed-Upon Incremental and Non- Incremental Decisions by Organizational Category and by City, to Include the Chi-Square Statistic ...