The Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies The United States and Japan in 2000: Seeking Focus The Paul H. Nitze School Of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University Washington, D.C. The Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies The United States and Japan in 2000: Seeking Focus The Paul H. Nitze School Of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University Washington, D.C. Requests for copies of this report should be sent to: The Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel: 202-663-5815 Fax: 202-663-5799 This report can also be found on line at: www.sais-jhu.edu/depts/asia/reischauer/index.html Requests for the bilingual (Japanese-English version) edition of this report, available in the summer, can be made to: International University of Japan Yamato-machi Minami Uonuma-gun Niigata, 949-72 JAPAN Tel: 81-257-79-1111 Fax: 81-257-79-4442 ©2000 by The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of The Johns Hopkins University. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Preface .......................................................................................... vii Introduction .................................................................................... 1 One “Old” Economy and Two “New” Ones ............................ 2 Why Focus on U.S.-Japan Economic Relations?...................... 4 Security Dilemmas and Independent Diplomacy....................... 4 Why Focus on Security and Diplomacy? .................................. 5 Economy ........................................................................................ 11 KeyEconomic Indicators............................................................13 =GDP =Consumption =Unemployment Security and Diplomacy..............................................................51 the Bilateral Relationship Military Base Related Issues Flare Up......................................53 P o l i t i c s . 9 5 U.S. Politics.............................................................................98 P e r c e p t i o n s . 1 3 9 Domestic Perceptions:Beauty and the Beast..........................141 C O N C L U S I O N . 1 6 5 Year in Review..........................................................................167 ACRONYMS..............................................................................177 4 SAIS-IUJ Co-authors in Washington, D.C. (March 2000) 5 his is the 15th edition of the annual Reischauer Center briefing book on U.S.-Japan relations. This year the book is Tbeing published on the eve of National Diet elections in Japan and the G-8 Summit in Okinawa. The book also comes out in the midst of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race. These are important events that will set the tone for bilateral U.S.-Japan relations for some time to come. In looking at the past year, however, the authors of this year’s book noted that Japan is in the middle of an even large r transformation. The political and economic system that created the Japanese “economic miracle” is under intense pressure. Popular Japanese views of security policy and the constitution are changing in ways that have not been seen since the end of the war. Th e Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) remains in power with a coalition government, but not terribly confident that the party will continue to dominate politics over the longer-t e r m . We still do not know whether the information technology sector in Japan will add new dynamism to the economy as the “old” industrial and agricultural sectors go through restructuring. We cannot predict with certainty whether changing views of the constitution and security will lead to a more proactive Japanese role in the world. And we have been waiting for the dust to settle on political realignment for years. Nevertheless, we do know that these developments should be of central importance to the United States because our own leadership in Asia depends on a firm alliance with Japan and an ability to adapt our bilateral relationship to changing international and domestic circumstances. As the authors of this year’s book conducted their research and interviews, they were struck by the lack of attention to Japan i The United States and Japan in 2000: Seeking Focus policy. At one point, the editors considered giving this year’s book the title “The United States and Japan in 2000: Who Cares?” Instead, they opted for a more sober assessment that makes the same point. The title “Seeking Focus” conveys their conclusion that, while both countries do recognize the importance of the relationship, we have lost our focus on why it is important and how each side can use it to advance our respective national objectives and international obligations. The authors have prepared a book that provides analysis of the trends in U.S.-Japan relations this past year and makes a compelling case why the alliance needs more focus from senior policy-makers in both countries. The book covers the period from the Obuchi-Clinton Summit of May 3, 1999 to the Mori-Clinton Summit of May 5, 2000. The authors are graduate students at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. They enter this project each year knowing full well the intense time commitment and professional standards required. This year the editor-in-chief, Nick Szechenyi, led a team of six sub-editors: Kurt Sanger and Sara Skalicky (economy); Kellie Lim and Naoki Shimizu (security and diplomacy); John Fitzgerald (politics); and Tim Rupright (perceptions). They were assisted by: Joe Coletti (chronology); Jasmin Chakeri (politics); Andrew Dilworth (perceptions); Yasutomo Tanaka (perceptions); and Justin Tilman (security and diplomacy). The entire project was coordinated by the Reischauer Center’s Assistant Director, Frank Shima. They have done a yeoman’s work. To complete the book each year, the authors turn to a number of well-regarded experts on U.S.-Japan relations for input and guidance. This year, we were assisted by: Naotaka Matsukata, William Heinrich, Tsuneo Watanabe, Ayako Doi, Adam Posen, Ed Lincoln, Paul Giarra, Don Oberdorfer, Aki Nagashima, Yoichi Kato, Toru Maeda, Benjamin Self, Eric Altbach, Tsuyoshi ii Preface Sunohara, Chris Nelson, and of course, Professor Nat Thayer at SAIS. They have our thanks, and bear no responsibility for any shortcomings in the final product. The Reischauer Center also works closely with the International University of Japan (IUJ) in Niigata to complete the briefing book. We exchange background papers and drafts throughout the year and then meet each March in Washington to review and debate the contents of the book. This year Professor Tomohito Shinoda led a group of nine students from IUJ: Tae Suk Hong, Daryl Bockett, Jaung-Kwang Choi, David Laporta, Kazuhiro Anshita, Haruo Oda, Anga-Raj Timilsina, Jee-Yang Yang, and Jing-Jing Bai. They each made important contributions to the final draft. Finally, we note with sadness the collapse of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi earlier this year. As Prime Minister, Mr. Obuchi demonstrated a great warmth for the United States and a strategic understanding of the importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship. We can only offer Mr. Obuchi and his family our most profound thoughts and prayers. Michael J. Green Acting Director The Edwin O. Reischauer Center The Johns Hopkins University, SAIS iii Most gratifying to me is the strong, equal partnership the United States and Japan have forged. Since they are the two greatest of the wo r l d ’ s democracies, they stand at the heart of the community of democratic nations. And since their partnership is the one grea t alliance that bridges major cultural and racial cleavages in the world, it is a model for a future worldwide community. Edwin O. Reischauer My Life Between Japan and America s we enter the new millennium, the United States appears trapped in a “unipolar” moment, advocating the principles Aof democracy as the world’s superpower yet struggling to articulate consistent foreign policy goals in the absence of a major ideological rival. Meanwhile, Japan has entered a period of transformation driven by diplomatic, economic, and political developments that could challenge traditional norms and radically alter its image as a passive nation. Interestingly, these two members of a “strong, equal partnership” find themselves at opposite ends of the identity spectrum. The United States is still adjusting to its perceived role as an unrivaled leader as Japan seemingly strives to create a new role for itself while remaining aligned with the United States. This preoccupation with self- perception could very well weaken the U.S.-Japan relationship and negate all that leaders have done in recent years to facilitate cooperation between the two nations. The fortieth anniversary of the 1960 Security Treaty presents an opportunity to refocus our attention on the bilateral relationship and its invaluable role in maintaining peace and stability in the 1 The United States and Japan in 2000: Seeking Focus Asia-Pacific, but significant dialogue could be overshadowed by domestic events as both nations prepare for elections later this year and continue to redefine their respective identities. One could question the need to focus on U.S.-Japan relations at a time of unparalleled economic integration and security cooperation, but complacency can easily induce deterioration and dissolution that we cannot afford. We must strengthen