Seamless Forecasting of Rainfall and Temperature for Adaptation of Farming Practices to Climate Variability Volume 2 – SEAMLESS FORECASTS AND SUGARCANE Report to the WATER RESEARCH COMMISSION Edited by T Lumsden1, F Morris2 and O Crespo3 1 Council for Scientific and Industrial Research 2 Centre for Water Resources Research, University of KwaZulu-Natal 3 CSAG, Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town WRC Report No. 2496/2/19 ISBN 978-0-6392-0057-6 June 2019 i Obtainable from Water Research Commission Private Bag X03 GEZINA, 0031 SOUTH AFRICA [email protected] or download from www.wrc.org.za This report forms part of a series of two reports. The other report is Seamless Forecasting of Rainfall and Temperature for Adaptation of Farming Practices to Climate Variability. Volume 1 – Seasonal Forecasts and Smallholders (WRC Report No. 2496/1/19) DISCLAIMER This report has been reviewed by the Water Research Commission (WRC) and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the WRC, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Corresponding editor: Trevor Lumsden Natural Resources and the Environment, CSIR, King George V Ave Durban 4000, South Africa Email: [email protected] © Water Research Commission ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND The African population is one of the fastest growing in the world and the continent has a large potential for agricultural growth and development (Godfray et al., 2010). The definition of agricultural production strategies that will help prepare Africa for higher demand and worsening climate stresses must take into account various factors including political drive, infrastructure development, technical progress, social livelihood and economic growth. Apart from those, it is imperative to address climate change that directly impacts crop growth and food production in the long term, and in a similar measure climate variability that directly impacts year-by-year production. Agriculture is highly sensitive to climatic parameters and numerous studies show that Africa will be highly affected by long-term climate changes, mostly in a negative manner (Iizumi et al., 2013; Zinyengere et al., 2013), and adaptation is required (Challinor et al., 2014). In addition to the exploration of long-term adaptation strategies in response to climate change, there is a demand for shorter time scale coping mechanisms, which would make agricultural systems more resilient in the face of climate variability (vs. climate change). Despite a number of limitations to be clearly understood, the value of seasonal forecasts is evident (Fraisse et al., 2006; Hansen and Indeje, 2004; Hansen et al., 2011; Klopper et al., 2006; Meinke and Stone, 2005; Patt and Gwata, 2002). The proposed research is designed to harness seasonal forecasts and impact models’ numerical capacity to better prepare agricultural activities to climate variability. RATIONALE Repeated exposure to severe climate events combined with its financial and structural capacity to improve, makes of South Africa a major role player in exploiting climate and crop models’ capacity to digest enormous data sets into useful tailored information needed for decision making. Although models are only a partial representation of reality, their exploration capacity is useful and they are already intensively used at larger time and/or space scales (e.g. AgMIP, Rosenzweig et al., 2014). Technical challenges such as forecast skill or spatial representation make shorter time scale studies more demanding. However, these temporal and spatial scales are indispensable to provide appropriate information that farming communities are continuously requesting. International research projects have identified those efforts as a priority to respond to climate risk vulnerability. Although, there are currently no projects in South Africa (see for example foreign initiatives CCAFS-CRAFT or US- AgroClimate), some solid regional studies have been performed at those scales, e.g. Archer et al., 2007; Ziervogel and Downing, 2004; Zuma-Netshiukhwi et al., 2013. OBJECTIVES AND AIMS The proposed research work directly follows on from a previous WRC project (Lumsden and Schulze, 2012), which explored the application of weather and climate forecasts in agricultural decision-making. This included applying weather and climate forecasts within hydrological models to produce hydrological forecasts. iii This study explored, proposed and developed ways and approaches to leverage available seasonal forecast information, through robust climate-crop-water integrated assessment of agricultural and water systems, towards better farmers’ preparedness to climate variability. The project also applied shorter range weather forecasts in this objective. The number of partners involved in the project brings a large range of skills and expertise. Each aim is undertaken by the most relevant institution, with a clear effort towards regular community engagement. No. Aim Report Sections To rigorously document and improve accuracy and skill in, short Vol. 2 1 (1-3 days) and medium (3-10 days) range weather forecasts. Ch. 3 To develop extended range (11 to 30 day) weather forecasts to Vol. 2 2 facilitate fully seamless forecasting. Ch. 3 To render seasonal forecast data available to crop models, Vol. 1 3 including the seasonal production at selected locations in SA. Ch. 2,3 To integrate seasonal forecasts into crop models for seasonal Vol. 1 4 production scenarios, including the seasonal production at Ch. 4,5,6,7 selected locations in SA. To enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of seasonal Vol. 2 5 climate forecasts. Ch. 3 To demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the benefits of the Vol. 1 6 climate-crop integrated approach virtually (models only with Ch. 8,9,10,11,12 historical data) and in real conditions, at selected locations in SA. To improve understanding of, and possible reduction in, Vol. 2 7 hydrological forecast uncertainties and errors across different time Ch. 9 ranges. To develop and evaluate tailored hydrological and crop forecast Vol. 2 8 products for application in decision-making across different time Ch. 4,5,6,7,8 ranges in selected case studies in KwaZulu-Natal. To summarise feedbacks, particularly on enablers and barriers, Vol. 1 9 which can inform climate and agriculture experts and facilitate Ch.13 future climate-crop integration. METHODOLOGY Stakeholder engagements from the inception to the end of the project tremendously helped to frame the research objectives and advancements, better fitting actual field constraints and farming communities’ priorities. These engagements clearly allow to present the projects’ advancement in the light of community feasibility and evaluating the benefits, barriers and enablers of the approach in the most grounded way possible. In addition to the smallholder farming communities engaged in Eastern Cape and Limpopo, stakeholders representing commercial perspectives were engaged in KwaZulu-Natal with respect to the application of hydrological forecasts in decision-making. iv Integrating forecasts into hydro/crop models is one of the core research challenges of our project. Since it has been done on a long term climate change time scale, we know it is possible to couple seasonal forecasts with crop models. The challenge though comes from our intent to use the forecast-crop model combination as a tool to make crop-relevant weather- based information, or a crop forecast, to provide farming communities with a month to several months lead time decision tool. In this project a particular look was taken at the integration of seasonal forecasts with crop models (see for instance Vol. 1 Chapters 4 and 5). The major challenge in the integration lies in the capacity of the integrated tool/approach to process and produce relevant and useful information at this decision level. Given the large workload and various ambitions and aims of the project, as well as the large number of partner institutions, the project execution was driven along two complementary directions: Volume 1 – A seasonal time scale, led by The University of Cape Town, and mostly focusing on smallholder farmers of Alice, Eastern Cape and Lambani in Limpopo, with the support of the University of Fort Hare and the University of Venda, respectively. Volume 2 – A seamless time scale, led by the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the CSIR, and focused mostly on commercial agriculture in KwaZulu-Natal, with the support of the University of Pretoria and the Agricultural Research Council. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Volume 1 – Seasonal forecasts and smallholders Throughout the project, and the various themes and approaches tested and developed, various enablers and barriers were faced. As rigorous as we make this process we acknowledge the complexity and local dependency of the following observations. We ground these observations in our experience through and beyond the project, and present it in a way that intent to highlight wider and more generic issues. In this volume 1, we build on the “month to season forecast” integration to crop models and related engagements in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo Province. The scientific process started with grounding the research within two farming communities in Limpopo and Eastern Cape. The local partners and their network, as well as the direct engagement of the project team with the community, lead to better understanding of the community dynamics