Climate Adaptation: Risk Management and Resilience Optimisation for Vulnerable Road Access in Africa Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Guidelines Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Paige-Green Consulting (Pty) Ltd and St Helens Consulting Ltd ReCAP Project GEN2014C August 2019 Preferred citation: Le Roux, A., Makhanya, S., Arnold, K., Roux, M. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Paige-Green Consulting (Pty) Ltd and St Helens Consulting Ltd (2019). Climate Adaptation: Risk Management and Resilience Optimisation for Vulnerable Road Access in Africa, Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Guidelines, AfCAP Project GEN2014C. London: ReCAP for DFID. For further information, please contact Alize le Roux, [email protected] ReCAP Project Management Unit Cardno Emerging Market (UK) Ltd Level 5, Clarendon Business Centre 42 Upper Berkeley Street, Marylebone London W1H 5PW United Kingdom The views in this document are those of the authors and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Research for Community Access Partnership (ReCAP), the CSIR, Paige-Green Consulting (Pty) Ltd, St Helens Consulting Ltd or Cardno Emerging Markets (UK) Ltd, for whom the document was prepared. Cover Photo: Alize le Roux Quality assurance and review table Version Author(s) Reviewer(s) Date 1 A le Roux, S Makhanya, K Arnold, JM L Sampson & Dr J Cook, August 2017 Mwenge Kahinda ReCAP PMU 2 A le Roux, S Makhanya, K Arnold, M Roux L Sampson & Dr J Cook, January 2018 ReCAP PMU 3 A le Roux, S Makhanya, K Arnold, M Roux N Leta, ReCAP PMU November 2018 Dr J Cook, ReCAP TP 4 A le Roux, S Makhanya, K Arnold, M Roux Prof R Wilby July 2019 5 A le Roux, S Makhanya, K Arnold, M Roux N Leta, ReCAP PMU September 2019 ReCAP Database Details: Climate Adaptation: Risk Management and Resilience Optimisation for Vulnerable Road Access in Africa Reference No: GEN2014C Location Sub-Saharan Africa Source of Proposal DFID/ReCAP Procurement Method Tender Theme Sustainability of access Sub-Theme Climate resilience Lead CSIR Paige-Green Consulting Implementation Partner Organisation St Helens Consulting Organisation Start Date April 2017 End Date September 2019 Report Due Date August 2019 Date Received August 2019 ReCAP │ Climate Adaptation: Risk Management and Resilience Optimisation for Vulnerable Access i Contents Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... iii Figures .................................................................................................................................................... iii Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. iv Keywords ................................................................................................................................................ iv Glossary (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2018) ................................... v Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................... viii Executive summary .................................................................................................................................. 1 1 Background and context .................................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Aims and objectives ................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Scope ........................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Overview of the Climate Adaptation Handbook ...................................................................... 4 1.4 Outline of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Guidelines ........................................................ 6 1.5 Purpose of the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Guidelines ................................................ 6 1.6 Benchmarking and alignment of the AfCAP climate risk and vulnerability methodology ....... 7 2 Underpinning aspects of risk and vulnerability analyses .................................................................. 9 2.1 The scale of impact and importance of understanding the role of climate hazards ............... 9 2.2 Defining the concepts .............................................................................................................. 9 2.3 National risk and vulnerability assessments for rural access roads ....................................... 10 2.4 Actors and role players .......................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Fostering organisational linkages ........................................................................................... 12 3 National-/regional-level climate risk screening ............................................................................. 15 3.1 Communication and stakeholder involvement ...................................................................... 15 3.2 Piloting a national-/regional-level risk and vulnerability assessment .................................... 16 3.3 Summary of proposed indicators ........................................................................................... 38 4 Local-/project-level assessment of climate risk and vulnerability of rural access roads ................. 42 4.1 The purpose of a local-/project-level road vulnerability assessment .................................... 42 4.2 Communication and stakeholder involvement ...................................................................... 43 4.3 Methods for local assessment of road vulnerability to climate hazards ............................... 44 4.4 Concluding remarks on assessing the vulnerability of a road to climate hazards ................. 78 References ............................................................................................................................................. 80 ReCAP │ Climate Adaptation: Risk Management and Resilience Optimisation for Vulnerable Access ii Tables Table 1 Contents and scope of the Adaptation Methodology ............................................................. 5 Table 2 Actors and role players to be included in consultation during the risk and vulnerability assessment process ............................................................................................................... 11 Table 3 Suggested data to perform national-/regional-level risk and vulnerability analyses, as well as possible open data sources ............................................................................................... 29 Table 4 A compendium of the indicators that are relevant for an indicator-based geospatial risk and vulnerability assessment of rural access roads to climate change ........................................ 39 Table 5 Data sources and variables to consider for a local climate vulnerability assessment for rural roads ...................................................................................................................................... 47 Table 6 Explanation of data capture fields on the climate-sensitive field assessment form ............. 58 Table 7 Aspects and elements evaluated during condition deficiency assessment........................... 61 Table 8 Description and rating values for the severity dimension ..................................................... 62 Table 9 Description and rating values for the extent dimension ....................................................... 62 Table 10 Aspects and elements evaluated during the road maintenance assessment ....................... 65 Table 11 Criticality rating for no alternative routes ............................................................................. 67 Table 12 Criticality rating for the availability of alternative routes ..................................................... 67 Table 13 Criticality rating for the common vehicle types using the road ............................................ 68 Table 14 Criticality rating for the public facilities reached by this road ............................................... 68 Table 15 Indicators suggested for assessing the vulnerability of a road to specific climate-related risks ........................................................................................................................................ 78 Figures Figure 1 Overview of Handbook and supporting guidelines ................................................................. 4 Figure 2 Overview of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment guidelines report ...................... 6 Figure 3 A conceptual framework for climate-related risk as an interaction between climate-related hazards, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems .................................... 10 Figure 4 Framework for conducting a detailed national-level rural access risk and vulnerability assessment ............................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 5 Damage to road infrastructure due to climate-related environmental stresses................... 42 Figure 6 A conceptual framework for the local vulnerability assessment of rural access roads