UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Accepting Risks and Making Bold Gestures: Why Decision-Makers Initiate Conciliation in Rivalries A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Shahin Berenji 2017 © Copyright by Shahin Berenji 2017 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTAITON Accepting Risks and Making Bold Gestures: Why Decision-Makers Initiate Conciliation in Rivalries by Shahin Berenji Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2017 Professor Deborah W. Larson, Chair The conventional argument in the international relations and social-psychological literature maintains that states should employ an incremental, or step-by-step, approach to initiate conciliation with their adversaries. Decision-makers are cautioned against making large, costly conciliatory gestures since they denote weakness, embolden rivals, and expose them to audience costs. Given these risks, it is puzzling why some leaders undertake bold conciliatory gestures when smaller, less radical avenues exist to engage rivals. This project applies theories and approaches from political psychology to examine why, and the conditions under which, decision- makers extend these types of olive branches in international relations. I employ a least-similar cases research design and select several rivalries – Egypt-Israel (1973-1979), the U.S.-the Soviet Union (1985-1987), and India-Pakistan (1998-2004) – to examine these questions. I found that Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, and Indian Prime ii Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee undertook bold moves when they confronted strong, hawkish governments; when they found the rivalry costly to sustain; and when negotiations reached a deadlock. In each case, the leaders were personally involved in shaping and deciding on these initiatives since they were disillusioned with either their foreign policy bureaucracy or with third-party intermediaries. Showing considerable empathy, they were motivated to undertake such gestures to mitigate their rivals’ insecurity and remove the psychological barriers such as fear and mistrust that, they believed, had stalemated negotiations. iii The dissertation of Shahin Berenji is approved. Robert F. Trager Stanley Wolpert Deborah W. Larson, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2017 iv For My Parents v TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures vii List of Tables viii Acknowledgments ix-x Vita xi-xii Chapter 1: Bold Gestures in International Relations 1-34 Chapter 2: Two Days That Changed the Middle East 35-91 Chapter 3: Gorbachev and the Windy Road to Reykjavik 92-155 Chapter 4: From Lahore to Agra: Vajpayee’s Pursuit of an Indo-Pakistani Détente 156-208 Chapter 5: A Foundation for the Study of Bold Gestures 209-222 Select Bibliography 223-228 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Simplification of Prospect Theory 23 Figure 2: Sadat’s Decision-Making Process 91 Figure 3: Fatalities from the Kashmir Conflict, 1988-2005 207 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: The Evolution of Soviet Arms Control Proposals 155 Table 2: Fatalities from Terrorist Violence in Kashmir, 1988-2004 208 viii Acknowledgements It is so difficult to begin an acknowledgements in a project of this magnitude since so many people helped me reach the finish line. I could never have completed this dissertation without the help of my committee members: Deborah Larson, Robert Trager, Marc Trachtenberg, and Stanley Wolpert. Professor Larson has been an amazing mentor and dissertation supervisor and no words can fully express how grateful I am to have had the opportunity to work with her over these past few years. Beginning in my second and third year of graduate school, she introduced me to social and cognitive psychology. This was an eye-opening experience and one that forever changed the way I study international relations. Despite her busy schedule, she has always been extremely generous with her time and has provided comments and feedback on everything that I have ever submitted. I have become the scholar I am today in large part because of her mentorship. I am also thankful to Professor Trager for encouraging me to pursue this project and for helping me to refine my research question and think about different ways in which to test my hypotheses. I have learned so much from Professor Trachtenberg, beginning with his core graduate course on international relations. He taught me how to navigate archival collections, how to use primary documents, and how to integrate and organize these materials into a research paper. This is an invaluable skill-set and one which I used quite extensively in completing this dissertation. Finally, I would like to thank Professor Wolpert for all his suggestions on how to improve my chapter on India and Pakistan. Throughout my graduate career at UCLA, I have been fortunate to have had a cohort of friends within the department who were always free to lend helpful advice about anything IR- ix related. I would like to extend a special thanks here to Dov Levin and Ron Guratnz and to all the present members of the IR reading group, particularly Francesca Parente, Joseph Perry, and Andrea Vilan. I would next like to extend a profound thanks to Roey Reichart who provided invaluable assistance in translating archival documents from Hebrew into English. A similar note of gratitude goes out to Yana Otlan and Eugenia Nazrullaeva who translated archival documents from Russian into English. My chapters on the Middle East and on the Cold War would not have been the same without their stellar research assistance. I have also been lucky to have had an awesome group of friends inside and outside the political science department who helped get me through this stressful and arduous experience. I would like to extend a special thanks here in particular to James Lo, Alex Riera, Felipe Nunes, Sebastian Garrido, Jesse Acevedo, Marika Csapo, Amanda Rizkallah, and Ronak Shah who helped make my graduate experience more enjoyable and fun than it otherwise would have been. Finally, this project would not have been at all possible without the support and love of my family. My parents were a great source of encouragement and believed in me even when sometimes I did not fully believe in myself. I want to especially thank my dad who instilled in me a great love for studying international relations. My brother Bijan inspired me to work harder and offered sage advice on how to navigate graduate school. My sister Manijeh has been extremely supportive throughout my graduate career and has consistently pushed me to think outside the box. x VITA EDUCATION University of California Los Angeles, September 2008-Present Ph.D, Political Science, degree expected September 2017 MA, Political Science – International Relations, October 2010 Dissertation: “Accepting Risks and Making Bold Gestures: Why Decision-makers Initiate Conciliation in Rivalries” Committee: Deborah Larson (Chair), Marc Trachtenberg, Robert Trager, and Stanley Wolpert Specializations: Qualitative Methodology, Political Psychology, Diplomacy/Diplomatic History, Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy Decision-Making, the International Relations of the Middle East and South Asia, the Cold War University of Southern California, December 2006 Bachelor of Arts, Political Science Magna cum laude TEACHING EXPERIENCE Lecturer, UCLA, 2017-2018 Instructor, UCLA, 2015-2017 World Politics (PS 20), Summer 2015, Summer 2016, and Summer 2017 Teaching Assistant Political Science Civic Engagement Course (PS 195CE), Elizabeth Goodhue/Michael Thies, Center for Community Learning, Fall 2012-Summer 2016 Data Analysis (PS 6), John Zaller, Fall 2011 International Law (PS 123A), Leslie Johns, Spring 2011 World Politics (PS 20), Leslie Johns, Winter 2011 Environmental Politics & Governance (UP 260) (graduate seminar), Stephanie Pincetl, Fall 2010 OTHER EMPLOYMENT Graduate Student Research Assistant, Barbara Geddes, Summer 2011, Winter-Spring 2012 Editorial Assistant, Comparative Politics and International Relations American Political Science Review, Fall 2009-Summer 2010 MOST RECENT CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS “Engaging the Reagan Administration, from Small Steps to Bold Proposals: Gorbachev and the Windy Road to Reykjavik,” UCLA IR Reading Group, June 2nd (Presenter and Chair) “Understanding why Decision-Makers Initiate Conciliation through Bold Gestures: An Examination of Anwar Sadat’s Peace Initiatives from 1977,” International Society of Political Psychology, San Diego, July 5, 2015 xi (Co-presented with Elizabeth Goodhue, Carrier Sanders, and Molly Jacobs) “Fostering Civic, Disciplinary, and Professional Development through Academic Internships,” 18th Annual Continuums of Service Conference, Long Beach, April 9, 2015. INVITED TALKS “U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East,” West Los Angeles College Annual Global Conference, October 21, 2016 WORKING PAPERS (Revise and Resubmit) “Accepting Risks and Making Bold Gestures: Anwar Sadat’s Jerusalem Initiative” “Engaging the Reagan Administration, from Small Steps to Bold Proposals: Gorbachev and the Windy Road to Reykjavik” “Signaling and Reassurance: Ronald Reagan’s 1984 Peace Offensive” PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES “Consumers and the Case for Labeling Genfoods.” Journal of Research for Consumers 13, Spring 2008. Available: http://www.jrconsumers.com/academic_articles. OTHER WRITINGS “Jimmy Carter’s Role in Securing Middle East Peace,” E-International Relations, April 2016. Available: http://www.e-ir.info/2016/04/21/the-camp-david-accords-jimmy-carters-role-in-securing-middle-east-