SLATS Passenger Rail Study Prepared for Stateline Area Transportation Study February 2021 SLATS Passenger Rail Study Prepared for: Stateline Area Transportation Study Prepared by: AECOM 303 East Wacker Drive, Suite 1400 Chicago, IL 60601 aecom.com Final Report submitted: February 2021 Statement on COVID-19 The decision to conduct this study was made in fall 2019 with the goal of having study results in time for the SLATS 2045 LRTP update (beginning in early 2021). The COVID-19 pandemic has created many challenges for the transportation industry, resulting in a host of uncertainties. The long-term impacts of the pandemic on travel demand and commute patterns were not clear at that time of this study. The evaluation and market analysis contained in this report reflects pre- pandemic conditions, and conclusions should consider these uncertainties. Stateline Area Transportation Study SLATS Passenger Rail Study Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................... vi 1. Overview................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Stateline Area Transportation Study ................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study Background and Purpose ...................................................................................... 1 1.3 Study Area ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Study Methodology Overview .......................................................................................... 3 1.5 Relevant Prior Planning Studies ...................................................................................... 4 2. Existing Transportation Conditions ...................................................... 7 2.1 Public Transit Services .................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Intercity Services ............................................................................................................. 9 3. Rail Corridors for Study ....................................................................... 11 3.1 Candidate Rail Corridors ............................................................................................... 11 3.2 Recommended Rail Corridors to Study .......................................................................... 13 3.3 Station Locations used in the Market Analysis ............................................................... 15 4. Socioeconomic Trends ......................................................................... 18 4.1 Data Sources................................................................................................................. 18 4.2 Growth Projections by Geography ................................................................................. 21 5. Travel Flows ........................................................................................... 26 5.1 Regional Travel Patterns ............................................................................................... 28 5.2 Commuter Flows Near Study Alignments ...................................................................... 31 6. Study Area Ridership Assessment ..................................................... 54 6.1 Market Assessment Overview ....................................................................................... 54 6.2 Metra Market Area Regression Analysis ........................................................................ 55 6.3 Study Area Ridership Potential by Alignment ................................................................. 58 7. Ridership Benchmarking ...................................................................... 67 7.1 Peer Services ................................................................................................................ 67 7.2 Comparative Results ..................................................................................................... 69 7.3 Peer Agency Outreach .................................................................................................. 71 8. Conclusion and Next Steps.................................................................. 78 8.1 Summary of Findings ..................................................................................................... 78 8.2 Next Steps to Advance Passenger Rail Service ............................................................. 80 Appendices Appendix A | Stations ............................................................................................................. 85 Appendix B | Socioeconomic Projections ........................................................................... 110 Appendix C | Peer Agency Profiles ...................................................................................... 115 Appendix D | UP-NW Extension Feasibility Study (2002) ................................................... 121 Stateline Area Transportation Study ii SLATS Passenger Rail Study Figures Figure 1-1. Super Region – Beloit, Janesville, Rockford, Metro Chicago................................................... 3 Figure 2-1. Existing Amtrak Rail Service ................................................................................................ 10 Figure 3-1. SCWCTS Candidate Rail Corridor Links .............................................................................. 11 Figure 3-2. Rail Corridors Considered for Market Analysis...................................................................... 13 Figure 3-3. Janesville – Fox Lake Link ................................................................................................... 14 Figure 3-4. Market Analysis Station Locations ........................................................................................ 17 Figure 4-1. Household Density (2020) .................................................................................................... 19 Figure 4-2. Employment Density (2020) ................................................................................................. 19 Figure 4-3. Household Density Change (2020-2050) .............................................................................. 20 Figure 4-4. Employment Density Change (2020-2050) ........................................................................... 20 Figure 4-5. Household Density Growth by County Subdivision (2020-2050) ........................................... 25 Figure 4-6. Employment Density Growth by County Subdivision (2020-2050)......................................... 25 Figure 5-1. Study Alignments ................................................................................................................. 27 Figure 5-2. Average Miles Traveled by County Residents ....................................................................... 29 Figure 5-3. Average Miles Traveled by Mode ......................................................................................... 29 Figure 5-4. Inter-County Commuter Flows ............................................................................................. 30 Figure 5-5. Inter-County Subdivision Flows (with and without Intra-Cook County Flows)......................... 31 Figure 5-6. Origin Market Sheds ............................................................................................................ 33 Figure 5-7. Destination Market Sheds .................................................................................................... 34 Figure 5-8. Overlapping Market Shed Example ...................................................................................... 35 Figure 5-9. Example TAZ Origin-Destination Pairs ................................................................................. 37 Figure 5-10. Beloit and Harvard-Madison Origin Sheds .......................................................................... 39 Figure 5-11. Rockford-Madison (West): Existing Commuters by Origin & Destination ............................. 41 Figure 5-12. Rockford-Madison (East): Existing Commuters by Origin and Destination........................... 43 Figure 5-13. Harvard-Madison (West): Existing Commuters by Origin & Destination ............................... 45 Figure 5-14. Harvard-Madison (East): Existing Commuters by Origin & Destination................................ 46 Figure 5-15. Harvard-Beloit-Rockford: Existing Commuters by Origin & Destination ............................... 47 Figure 5-16. Total Existing and 2050 Commuters by Alignment (all modes) ............................................ 52 Figure 5-17. Alignments to Advance to Ridership Assessment ................................................................ 53 Figure 6-1. Market Assessment Process Overview ............................................................................... 54 Figure 6-2. Metra Station Origin Sheds .................................................................................................. 55 Figure 6-3. Milepost Distances (North Section) ...................................................................................... 60 Figure 6-4. Milepost Distances (South Section) ...................................................................................... 60 Figure 6-5. Employment per Acre within Station Half Mile Radius ........................................................... 62 Figure