AGRIFOOD YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND ENGAGEMENT STUDY Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study 1 Acknowledgments Support for AgYees was provided by The MasterCard Foundation and is gratefully acknowledged by the authors. The authors also thank Regis Nisengwe for excellent research assistance, and Olivier Hirwa and Anna Andrew Temu for facilitating stakeholder interviews in Rwanda and Tanzania, respectively. In addition, the authors would like to recognize DeAndra Beck for her strong leadership of AgYees; Skye McDonald, Lisa Hinds and Karin Dillon for their generous and excellent management support; and Rachel Warner for creative graphic design and assistance with report production. © 2016 Michigan State University Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study AGRIFOOD YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND ENGAGEMENT STUDY (AGYEES) by Andrea Allen, Julie Howard, M. Kondo, Amy Jamison, Thomas Jayne, J. Snyder, David Tschirley, and Kwame Felix Yeboah* JUNE 2016 All authors are at Michigan State University. Allen is Associate Director, Center for Advanced Study of International Development. Howard is Senior Adviser to the Associate Provost and Dean, International Studies and Programs. Kondo and Snyder are Ph.D candidates and Graduate Research Assistants in the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics. Jamison is Assistant Director, Center for Gender in Global Context. Jayne is University Foundation Professor, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics. Tschirley is Professor, International Development, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics and Co-Director, Food Security Group. Yeboah is Assistant Professor, International Development, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study i ii Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study AGRIFOOD YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND ENGAGEMENT STUDY (AGYEES) TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... iv Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................................1 Part 1: Strategic Policy and Foresighting Analysis ................................................................6 Chapter 2: Land/Farm Report ................................................................................................ 7 Chapter 3: Downstream Report ...........................................................................................43 Part 2: Agrifood Landscape Analysis ......................................................................................72 Chapter 4: Rwanda Landscape Analysis ...........................................................................74 Chapter 5: Tanzania Landscape Analysis ..........................................................................92 Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................110 Annexes ........................................................................................................................................... 118 Annex 1: List of Acronyms and Terms ...............................................................................119 Annex 2: References ............................................................................................................... 121 Annex 3: Methodological Details on Classification of Employment Sectors ........ 135 Annex 4: Detailed Employment Tables ............................................................................141 Annex 5: AgYees Landscape Interview Guide ...............................................................144 Annex 6: Landscape Analysis Interviews ........................................................................148 Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study (AgYees) examines the potential of Sub-Saharan Africa’s agrifood systems to provide new jobs for unemployed, underemployed and disadvantaged youth, and identifies constraints affecting the capacity of youth to take up these economic opportunities. Africa has the youngest population in the world, tapped. Alternatively, the youth could also present with almost 200 million people between the ages of a significant threat to social cohesion and political 15 and 24—a number that is expected to double by stability if insufficient economic and employment 2045 (African Economic Outlook 2015). Although opportunities are available. Unemployment of youth many jobs have been created by Africa’s growing is of particularly critical concern in fragile states, economies, job creation has not been enough to with one in two youths joining rebel movements accommodate the expanding youth population. citing unemployment as the primary motivation The International Labor Organization estimates that (World Bank 2011, cited in African Economic Review only 16 million of 73 million jobs created in Africa 2015). between 2000 and 2008 were filled by youth. Sixty percent of Africa’s unemployed are youth, even STUDY OBJECTIVES more are underemployed, and youth unemployment The Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement rates are double those of adult unemployment Study (AgYees) examines the potential of Sub- in most countries (African Economic Outlook Saharan Africa’s agrifood1 systems to provide 2015). Across 34 African countries, citizens regard new jobs for unemployed, underemployed and unemployment as the top problem facing their disadvantaged youth and identifies constraints nations (Dome 2015). The rising youth population affecting the capacity of youth to take up these is increasingly better educated, and there is an economic opportunities. Two analytical tracks unprecedented opportunity for economic and social generate insights and guidance on cost-effective development if the talents of this generation can be strategies and programmatic entry points most likely to improve employment options and livelihoods for disadvantaged African men and women. 1 We define the agrifood system as the set of activities, processes, people, and institutions involved in supplying a population with food and agricultural products. The agrifood system encompasses the pro- vision of farming inputs and services, production at farm level, post- farm marketing, processing, packaging, distribution, and retail, and the policy, regulatory, environmental, and broader economic environment in which these activities take place. Specific activities and actors within the agrifood system include: Farming: those involved directly in producing crops, raising animals, and managing fisheries.Downstream agrifood system: those engaged in post-farm value addition, e.g., assembly trading, wholesaling, storage, processing, retailing, preparation of food for sale outside the home, beverage manufacturing, etc. Upstream agrifood system: those engaged in pre-farm value addition activities, e.g., farm input distribution, irrigation equipment, farmer extension services. Off-farm within the agrifood system: both the upstream and downstream por- tions of the agrifood system. Off-farm outside the agrifood system: all other types of employment outside the agrifood system. Agriculture is defined in the traditional sense to include crop and livestock produc- tion, hunting and related services, forestry and logging and fishery and aquaculture. iv Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study The Strategic Policy and Foresighting Analysis for gender and age categories, the analysis also (Chapters 2 and 3) analyzes economic mega-trends disaggregated by geographic region to identify for Rwanda, Tanzania and Nigeria and projects potential differences in the factors associated with how economic changes, specifically farm structure sectoral employment patterns. Lastly, Chapter 2 and dietary transformations, will affect future job explores the links between sectoral employment prospects for rural and urban African youth. The shifts, labor productivity and total factor productivity Agrifood Landscape Analysis (Chapters 4 and 5), growth in agriculture. focusing on Rwanda and Tanzania, examines the economic and policy environment affecting youth Chapter 3 (Strategic Policy and Foresighting- engagement with the agrifood system, assesses the Downstream Analysis) examines the structure supply and demand for related workforce training of consumer demand for food, projecting likely and perceived gaps, and distills best practices changes over the next five years, and linking and lessons learned related to youth economic these consumption changes to changes in future programming. employment. The analysis of Chapter 3 relied on data from household-level LSMS surveys that DATA AND METHODS capture household expenditure on detailed lists of Within the Strategic Policy and Foresighting food- and non-food items and employment over Analysis, Chapter 2 (Land/Farm) offers a detailed the past year of all household members. These description of employment trends in the region, data were used to examine current patterns of with a particular focus on men and women between consumer expenditure and employment, to project 15 and 34 years of age, disaggregated into two age the evolution of consumer expenditure over a brackets, 15-24 and 25-342. Chapter 2 also examines five-year period