Occasional Paper No. 9 The 1971 Smallpox Epidemic in Aralsk, Kazakhstan, and the Soviet Biological Warfare Program Edited by Jonathan B. Tucker Raymond A. Zilinskas Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project MONTEREY INSTITUTE CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES THE CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES The mission of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) is to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction by training the next generation of nonproliferation specialists and disseminating timely information and analysis. Dr. William C. Potter is the director of CNS, which has a staff of over 60 full-time personnel and approximately 65 student research assistants, with offices in Monterey, CA; Washington, DC; and Almaty, Kazakhstan. CNS is the largest nongovernmental organization in the United States devoted exclusively to research and training on nonproliferation issues. CNS gratefully acknowledges the support of the following funders and thanks them for their commitment to our mission: the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Center for Global Partnership, the Compton Foundation, the Ford Foundation, the HKH Foundation, the Japan - United States Friendship Commission, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the John Merck Fund, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Ploughshares Fund, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and the Scherman Foundation. For more information on the projects and publications of CNS, contact: Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies 460 Pierce Street Monterey, California 93940 USA Tel: 831.647.4154 Fax: 831.647.3519 E-mail: [email protected] Internet Web Site: http://cns.miis.edu CNS Publications Staff Editor-in-Chief Leonard S. Spector Editor Scott Parrish Policy recommendations, statements of fact, and opinions expressed in this Occasional Paper are the responsibility of the authors alone and do not imply the endorsement of the editor, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, or the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Authors’ institutional affiliations are noted only for the purpose of identification. ISBN 1-885350-03-1 Monterey Institute of International Studies, July 2002 OCCASIONAL PAPERS AVAILABLE FROM CNS No. 1 Former Soviet Biological Weapons Facilities in Kazakhstan: Past, Present, and Future, by Gulbarshyn Bozheyeva, Yerlan Kunakbayev, and Dastan Yeleukenov, June 1999. No. 2 A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK, by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., November 1999. No. 3 Nonproliferation Regimes at Risk, Michael Barletta and Amy Sands, eds., November 1999. No. 4 Proliferation Challenges and Nonproliferation Opportunities for New Administrations, Michael Barletta, ed., September 2000. No. 5 International Perspectives on Ballistic Missile Proliferation and Defenses (Special Joint Series on Missile Issues with the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton, U.K.), March 2001. No. 6 WMD Threats 2001: Critical Choices for the Bush Administration, Michael Barletta, ed., May 2001. No. 7 Missile Proliferation and Defences: Problems and Prospects, (Special Joint Series on Missile Issues with the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton, U.K.), May 2001. No. 8 After 9/11: Preventing Mass-Destruction Terrorism and Weapons Proliferation, Michael Barletta, ed., May 2002. No. 9 The 1971 Smallpox Epidemic in Aralsk, Kazakhstan, and the Soviet Biological Warfare Program, Jonathan B. Tucker and Raymond A. Zilinskas, eds., July 2002. CNS Occasional Papers are available online at: http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/opapers.htm For print or multiple copies, please contact: Scott Parrish, Editor Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies 460 Pierce Street Monterey, California 93940 USA E-mail: [email protected] Tel: 831.647.6654 Fax: 831.647.3519 CONTENTS Acknowledgements ii Foreword iii by Bakyt B. Atshabar Introduction and Analysis Introduction 1 by Jonathan B. Tucker and Raymond A. Zilinskas An Epidemiological Analysis of the 1971 Smallpox Outbreak in Aralsk, Kazakhstan 12 by Alan P. Zelicoff, M.D. 1971 Smallpox Report Report on Measures Taken to Contain and Eradicate the Smallpox Outbreak Locale in the City of Aralsk (September/October, 1971) 22 by E. Sarynov, Deputy Minister of Health of the Kazakh SSR; B. Kulmakhanov, Director of the Outbreak Containment Locale; and Z. Makatov, Chief of Staff Report on Measures Taken to Contain and Eradicate the Smallpox Outbreak Locale in the City of Aralsk, Part II 55 by E. Sarynov, Deputy Minister of Health of the Kazakh SSR; and B. Kulmakhanov, Director of the Outbreak Containment Locale Autopsy Reports 60 by I. Borisov ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Editing this occasional paper was a difficult undertaking because its subject combines issues related to public health, security, the natural sciences, and the physical sciences. The assistance of many persons made the task easier, and we take this opportunity to acknowledge their contributions. Had it not been for Dr. Bakyt B. Atshabar, this occasional paper would not have been possible. We thank him for having presented us with the original Soviet-era reports. The excellent translation provided by Ms. Rosa Kavenoki and Mr. Michael Gillen enabled us to understand what we were dealing with. Ms. Elena Bloomstein of Sandia National Laboratories served as interpreter in the extensive interviews that Dr. Zelicoff conducted with some of the victims of the smallpox outbreak, a difficult task given the unpleasant memories he asked his interviewees to share. Dr. Sonia Ben Ouagrham played a key role by acting as a liaison with Dr. Atshabar and by providing photographs of the Aral Sea region. Thanks to Mr. Milton Leitenberg who helped us by making available special information about the former Soviet biological warfare program. We are grateful to Dr. Richard Pilch and Ms. Kara Yermukan for their reviews of the official report and Dr. Zelicoff’s analysis. We also appreciated the rapid publication of this occasional paper made possible by the work of Dr. Scott Parrish and Ms. Kimberly McCloud. CNS Director Dr. William Potter and Deputy Director Dr. Amy Sands provided consistent support of this project and our efforts. Jonathan B. Tucker and Raymond A. Zilinskas June 2002 FOREWORD by Bakyt B. Atshabar Director, The Mosgut Aikimbaev Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections, Almaty, Kazakhstan The military-industrial complex of the massive die-offs were officially attributed to former Soviet Union used the territory of outbreaks of pasteurellosis, a disease caused Kazakhstan as a testing ground for various by the bacterium Pasteurella haemolytica. Yet types of weapons of mass destruction, they were almost certainly the result of open- including nuclear weapons at Semipalatinsk. air BW testing on Vozrozhdeniye Island. It is Soviet officials perpetuated the myth that the also known that during the late 1980s, large test sites were harmless and categorically quantities of anthrax spores that had been denied any adverse effects on the Kazakhstani mass-produced and stockpiled in Russia were people, whose deteriorating health they transported to the island for decontamination sought to explain as a consequence of natural and burial. factors. In fact, the grave environmental and There are conflicting opinions on the health effects of nuclear weapons testing at dangers posed today by the legacy of BW Semipalatinsk are now clear. Less well known testing on Vozrozhdeniye Island. Experts are the consequences of biological weapons from the former Soviet military-industrial testing on the territory of Kazakhstan. complex who worked on the island contend From 1936 to 1992, Vozrozhdeniye that the extermination of rodents from testing Island, an island in the western part of the areas prior to the release of live BW agents, Aral Sea whose territory is divided between and subsequent clean-up operations, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, was the major completely removed any danger that proving ground in the Soviet Union for the infectious agents would persist at the testing open-air testing of biological warfare (BW) grounds. Soviet officials also counted on the agents. According to information provided by intense solar radiation during the summer Z. A. Rakhmatulin, the former chief of staff at months to disinfect the testing grounds after the test site during the 1980s, and by G. L. they were closed down. Lepyoshkin, the former general director of the Other experts disagree. Ultraviolet National Center for Biotechnology in radiation can kill only exposed, living Stepnogorsk, a variety of BW agents were microbes and viruses—not bacterial and tested on Vozrozhdeniye Island, including the fungal spores that persist beneath the surface microbial pathogens that cause plague, of the soil. Moreover, because of the anthrax, Q-fever, smallpox, tularemia, and extensive downwind range of the tests, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis, as well as the possibility that some of the microbes botulinum toxin. Some of the pathogens could have infected insect or animal hosts tested in aerosol form were genetically (such as fleas or rodents) that serve as modified strains that produce atypical disease persistent reservoirs of disease, infectious processes and are resistant to existing agents may have spread throughout the medications, potentially complicating territory of Vozrozhdeniye Island. diagnosis and treatment. Today it is impossible to guarantee with The environmental consequences