LEADERSHIP CRISES AND DECLINE OF OPPOSITION PARTIES IN NIGERIA: A CASE STUDY OF THE ALL NIGERIA PEOPLE’S PARTY (ANPP) 1999 T0 2009. BY SULEIMAN, SUNDAY PH.D/SOCI/SCIE/01926/2006/2007 SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE: PROF.AYO, DUNMOYE - CHAIRMAN DR KAYODE, OMOJUWA - MEMBER DR HUDU A AYUBA - MEMBER A dissertation submitted to the Postgraduate School, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, in fulfillment of the requirement for the award of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Department of Political Science Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. October 2011 i DECLARATION I, Suleiman Sunday, do hereby declare that to the best of my knowledge, the data contained in this dissertation are from my original research efforts and they have not been submitted to any other University for examination. ------------------------------ ------------------------------ Student’s signature Date ii CERTIFICATION This dissertation titled “Leadership Crises and Decline of Opposition Parties in Nigeria: A Case Study of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) 1999 to 2009”. By Suleiman Sunday meets the regulations governing the award of the Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, and is approved for its contribution to knowledge and literary presentation. Prof. Ayo Dunmoye ----------------------------------- --------------- ------------------------- Chairman, Supervisory Committee Signature Date Dr. Kayode Omojuwa ----------------------------------- --------------- --------------------- Member, Supervisory Committee Signature Date Dr. Hudu Abdullahi Ayuba --------------------------------------- --------------- -------------------- Member, Supervisory Committee Signature Date Dr. Hudu Abdullahi Ayuba ---------------------------------- ---------------- ----------------------- Head of Department Signature Date Prof. Adebayo. A. Joshua --------------------------------------- --------------- ------------------------ Dean, Postgraduate School Signature Date iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I appreciate God for sustaining me, most especially for the strength, faith and finance that enabled the successful completion of this study. I am eternally grateful to my team of supervisors, most especially on the invaluable guidance and contribution made by Professor Ayo Dunmoye, Dr. Kayode Omojuwa and Dr Hudu Abdullahi. I am particularly grateful to Professor Ayo Dunmoye for his fatherly guidance. His insistence that I concluded the study on time before the ANPP was overtaken by events has really motivated me. I must express my deep appreciation to all who made the completion of this dissertation a reality through; suggestions, moral encouragement and provision of materials. In this regards, I thank Prof. Paul Izah, Prof. Ejembi Unobe, Dr. Siddique Mohammed, Mal.Saidu Adamu, Mal.Garba Aminu, Dr.Yusufu Yakubu, Dr Issah Mohammed, Abbass Dr Faal Mohammed, Dr.Edgar Agubamma, Mal. Aliyu Yahaya Dr. Samaila Shehu and Dr Aliyu Raffindadi and Dr Mohammed Muntaka(both of Economics Department, ABU Zaria). In the course of this study, I have received vital information in the form of interview, advice and guidance from many eminent Nigerians to whom I am deeply indebted, in this regard I would like to thank: Gen. Mohammadu Buhari, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, Late Sen Mahmud Waziri, Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, Sen Ahmed Sani Yerima, Sen.Saidu Dansadau, Sule Hamma, Buba Galadima, Hon Farouk Aliyu Lawal, Hon Ahmed Baba Datti, Dr Mahmud Abubakar,Dr Bashir Kurfi, Sen Ahmed Aruwa, Alhaji Musa Kabir Aruwa and Hon Rini Munttaka. Finally, I am deeply grateful to my wife, Bolanle who did the type-setting and editorial aspects of the study, and my son, Jeremiah for their remarkable patience and encouragement during the course of this study. iv DEDICATION With gratitude to God, I dedicate this dissertation to the memory of my late research supervisor, Dr Sabo Bako, who devoted his time to patiently see to the success of this study. May the good seeds you have sown blossom and live to herald you. Above all, may you find eternal rest in the bosom of your Creator. Thank you, sir. v ACRONYMS AC Action Congress AD Alliance for Democracy AG Action Group ANC All Nigerian Congress ANPP All Nigeria Peoples Party APP All Peoples Party APPN All Peoples Party of Nigeria BDC Bauchi Discussion Circle BGIU Bauchi General Improvement Union BoT Board of Trustees CDC Constitutional Drafting Committee CFA Conference of Fused Associations CNC Congress of National Consensus CPP Citizen Popular Party DAM Democratic Alliance Party DPN Democratic Party of Nigeria DV Democratic Vanguard EMU Eastern Mandate Unions EPM Edo Professional Movement GDM Grassroots Democratic Party GNPP Great Nigerian Peoples Party GNU Government of National Unity vi INEC Independent National Electoral Commission NAP Nigerian Advance Party NCPN National Centre Party of Nigeria NDLP National Democratic Labour Party NEC National Executive Committee NEPU Northern Elements Progressive Union NEPU Nigerian Element Progressive Party NNA Nigerian National Alliance NNDP Nigerian National Democratic Party NPC Northern Peoples Congress NPN National Party of Nigeria NPN National Party of Nigeria NPP Nigerian Peoples Party NRC National Republican Convention NSPA National Solidarity Peoples Alliance NUF National Unity Forum NUF National Union Forum NWC National Working Committee PC Peoples Congress PCF Peoples Consultative Forum PCP Peoples Consensus Party PDM Peoples Democratic Movement PDP Peoples Democratic Party vii PPN Progressive Party of Nigeria PPP Peoples Progressive Party PRP Peoples Redemption Party SAP Structural Adjustment Programme SDP Social Democratic Party SGN Solidarity Group of Nigeria SLA Southern Leaders Forum SMC Supreme Military Council SPP Social Progressive Party TBO The Buhari Organization UDP United Democratic Party UMBC United Middle Belt Congress UNCP United Congress Party of Nigeria UPN United Party of Nigeria viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration ii Certification iii Acknowledgements iv Dedication v Acronyms vi Table of Contents ix Abstract xiv CHAPTER ONE GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1.1Background to the Study 1 1.2 Statement of the Research Problem 4 1.3 Research Questions 6 1.4 The Significance of the Study 6 1.5 Research Aims and Objectives 7 1.6 Research Propositions 7 1. 7 Scope of the Study 8 1.8 Organization of the Work 8 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1.0 Literature Review 10 2.1.1 Conceptualizing Democracy in Modern Context 10 2.1.2 The Centrality of Political Party in Modern Democracy 15 ix 2.1.3 Models of Competitive Political Party Behaviour 25 2.1.3a The Vote-Seeking Party 26 2.1.3b The Office-Seeking Party 26 2.1.3c The Policy-Seeking Party 27 2.1.3d Critique of the Models 27 2.1.4a The Relevance of Party leadership 32 2.1.4b Internal Democracy and Leadership Selection 33 2.1.5 Political Opposition in Democracies 35 2.1.5a Ethnicity and Politics of Opposition 44 2.1.6 Opposition Parties in Contemporary Africa 46 2.1.6a Explaining the Weakness of the Opposition Parties in Africa 52 2.1.6b Political Opposition in Nigerian Politics: A Review 56 2.1.7 Political Opposition and the 1999 Nigerian Constitution 65 2.2 Theoretical Framework 67 2.2a Group Theory 67 2.2b Class Theory 70 2.2c Elite Theory 72 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction 78 3.2 Selection Criteria for the Case Study 78 3.3 Techniques of Data Collection 78 3.3.1 In-depth Interview 78 x 3.3.2 Selected Key Informants 79 3.3.3 Method of Selection of Key Informants 79 3.3.4 Justification for the Selection 79 3.4.0 Content Analysis 82 3.4.1 Method of Selecting the Newspapers 82 3.4.2 Hiring and Training the Coders 83 3.4.3 Issues of Interest 84 3.4.4 Coding the Information 88 3.5.0 Data Transformation Techniques 91 3.6.0 Data Analysis Techniques 91 3.7.0 Research Challenges and Limitations 92 3.7.1 Inaccessibility of the ANPP Officials 93 CHAPTER FOUR HISTORY AND TRENDS OF POLITICAL PARTIES FORMATION AND OPPOSITION POLITICS IN NIGERIA 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 The Nature of the Nigerian state: Colonial to Post-Colonial 95 4.2.1The Colonial state 96 4.2.2 Colonial Economy and Politics 100 4.2.3 The Post-Colonial State 105 4.2.4 The Military and the Nigerian State 114 4.2.5 The Nigerian State and its Institutions 119 4.3 A Brief History of Political Party Formation in Nigeria 121 4.4 Political Party Formation during the Transition to Second Republic 126 xi 4.5 Party Formation during Babangida’s Transition Programme 131 4.6 Political Party Formation under General Sanni Abacha 135 4.7 Political Party Formation under General Abdulsalami Abubakar 136 4.8 INEC Guidelines of Party Formation and Registration 142 4.9 Politics of Political Opposition in Nigeria’s Previous Republics 150 CHAPTER FIVE THE FORMATION AND TRANSFORMATION OF THE ALL NIGERIA PEOPLE’S PARTY (ANPP) 5.1 Introduction 159 5.2 The Formation of the All People Party 159 5.3 The Pulling Out of Afenifere 162 5.4 The APP and December 1998 Local Council Polls 170 5.5.0 The ANPP’s Guideline for Governorship Primaries of 1998 172 5.5.1 The APP and December 1998 Governorship Primaries 175 5.6 The APP Presidential Primaries 176 5.7 The Transformation of the APP to ANPP 178 5.8.0 Buhari’s Membership of the ANPP 180 CHAPTER SIX AN ASSESSMENT OF THE LEADERSHIP CRISES IN THE ANPP AND ITS DECLINE AS AN OPPOSTION PARTY IN NIGERIA: 1999 TO 2009 6.0 Introduction 183 6.1.0 The Struggle for the Control the ANPP 1999 2009 183 6.1.1 Factionalization of the National Executive of the ANPP in 2004 194 6.1.2 The Leadership of the ANPP between 2006 and 2009 201 xii 6.2 Internal Democracy in