Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs is a series of occasional papers published by the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung’s “Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia/Singapore”. © 2013 Copyright by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying or recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission from the publisher. Editor: Dr. Kerstin Duell Publisher: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Ltd 34/36 Bukit Pasoh Road Singapore 089848 Registration Number: 201228783N Tel: (65) 6227-2001 Tel: (65) 6227-8343 Email: [email protected] Website: http//:www.kas.de/singapore Manuscript offers, review copies, exchange journals, and requests for subscription are to be sent to the editors. 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Cover photograph by Kerstin Duell: “Voting station during the By-elections on 1 April 2013 in Yangon” Design, Layout and Typeset: Select Books Pte Ltd 65A, Jalan Tenteram #02-06, St Michael’s Industrial Estate Singapore 328958 Website: www.selectbooks.com.sg PanoraMa InsIghTs InTo asIan and euroPean affaIrs Myanmar in Transition Polity, People and Processes Contents PREFACE 7 Myanmar in Political Transition 9 Khin Zaw Win POLITY The Role of Parliament in Myanmar’s Reforms and Transition to Democracy 19 Moe Thuzar The Appointments and Removals of Burmese Apex Court Judges since 1962 from a Comparative Asian Perspective 33 Myint Zan The Constitution, Emergency Powers and the Rule of Law in Myanmar 45 Melissa Crouch The Military and Political Liberalisation in Myanmar 57 Maung Aung Myoe PEOPLE Governance and Legitimacy in the Myanmar Peace Process 67 Ashley South Religious Violence and the Role of the State in Myanmar 83 Maung Zarni Local Perceptions of Returning Exiles and their Roles in Shaping Myanmar’s Future 97 Kerstin Duell PROCESSES Economic Transition amid Ethnic and Resource Conflict: Myanmar’s Economic Transition under the Thein Sein Government 111 Anders Engvall and Soe Nandar Linn Myanmar Civil Society’s Role in Raising Social and Environmental Standards in a Country Growing on Extractives 121 SiuSue Mark Current Efforts of Environmental Decentralization in Myanmar 131 Aung Soe Naing Preface Myanmar’s political transition from military authoritarianism to an evolving parlia- mentary system has gained worldwide attention and praise. Local and international scepticism regarding the flawed national elections of November 2010 gave way to out- right optimism once the by-elections of April 2012 brought representatives from the opposition party National League for Democracy into the bi-cameral national as well as two federal parliaments. In particular, Nobel Laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s metamorphosis from long-term political prisoner into national parliamentarian was seen as key evidence of the government’s sincerity in its reform agenda. Since then, the country has embarked on a journey towards fundamental change, encountering severe challenges, setbacks, and renewed criticism but also encouraging developments. This Panorama edition analyses the focal areas of institution-building, principal actors and long-term processes that will hopefully lead toward a democratic, federal state. While development cooperation practitioners and experts in political transitions toil to draw up plans, programmes and budgets, Myanmar’s government and parlia- ments face an impatient population demanding an end to underdevelopment, poverty, corruption, armed conflict and oppression of dissent, so that there can be focus on daily bread-and-butter issues. The first part of Myanmar in Transition: Polity, People and Processes examines the progress being made in re-designing the polity while also identifying key obstacles to creating a balance of power and new state institutions other than the military. The second part focuses on some of the principal non-state actors who have come increasingly to the fore: (1) ethnic minority leaders, including those from political parties and not just the armed groups, (2) a determined if weakened civil society that re-emerged from the predominantly underground networks of the past, (3) the Burmese diaspora that is returning to contribute to the transition in various capacities and, last but not least, (4) the grassroots populations, where the ethno-religious animosity be- tween Buddhists and Muslims has burst into open violence and scorched earth. What are the roles, motives and dynamics of these diverse non-state and least-controllable actors in Myanmar’s future? The final part of this edition examines the long-term processes that will deter- mine the success of Myanmar’s political transition toward democracy and federalism. Sustained economic development and the accompanying (yet to be formulated) policy frameworks will underwrite the country’s progress in all areas. True decentralisation, guaranteed in the constitution but so far insufficiently implemented, will distribute power more evenly between the central government and the sub-national governments, Preface especially in the restive ethnic regions. The maintenance of an oversight of the ex- tremely lucrative extractive industries by civil society organisations and watchdogs will limit environmental degradation and further public protests, provided that future 7 natural resource extraction will take place only after inclusive stakeholder dialogues. Myanmar’s political history has come to a pivotal point where the country may win a lot if win-win solutions are sincerely sought and implemented by all state and non-state, domestic and international actors. This selection of topics and authors seeks to stress the home-grown nature and indeed responsibility of Myanmar’s changing fate that rests with the country’s people and their government. Dr. Wilhelm Hofmeister Regional Director Myanmar in Transition: Polity, People and Processes Polity, Transition: Myanmar in 8 Myanmar in Political Transition Khin Zaw Win Myanmar’s transition has been long in coming but it is now widely accepted that the swing of the political tide in Myanmar has taken a turn for the better. The ‘Myanmar Spring’ has elicited sighs of relief and words of welcome. The feeling among Western governments is that if the opening in Myanmar is carried to the full, the present gov- ernment will be rewarded, democracy will be assured and the country will become prosperous. Indeed this is the belief-system of the past two decades reaching its climax. There is almost a sense of euphoria at the positive changes, current as well as imminent. The whole country and lots of people abroad are very glad that the reforms and the transition are finally happening. It is like a breath of fresh air after being cooped up in the confines of dictatorship for nearly half a century. The only thing that those succes- sive authoritarian regimes were good at was in perpetuating themselves. However, at this point in the middle of the semi-elected government’s first term, one could pause and ask where the transition is leading to. The overarching assumption is that a transition leads to something better, an over- all improvement. However, this is not always the case. I can say unequivocally that I am glad the transition is happening. But am I comfortable with it? The honest answer would be: No, I am not. Am I worried then? Despite being a lifelong optimist, I would have to say: Yes. The middle of 2013 marks the mid-term of the new government and offers a good vantage point from which to take stock. An independent, nonpartisan, and dispassion- ate look at what has taken place and what has yet to come. As to the important question of who is driving the transition, none of the institu- tions in Myanmar have the capacity to direct, much less drive, the transition. And more challenges loom on the horizon. There were transitions in the past—from a British colony to an independent nation, and then the descent into military dictatorship. For a country like Myanmar with its diversity, troubled history, problems and challenges, it is not an easy task to bring it all Myanmar in Political Transition Myanmar in Political together. The Western tendency to portray Myanmar in stark whites and blacks does not help either. When I and a few others differed from this dualistic view and floated a greyish path between, there were emotional, even rabid, reactions. An inclination 9 towards a smooth and steady democratic succession might be a bit idealistic. I have to say that wild gyrations in political paths unnerve and concern me. Looking back, I don’t think anyone was prepared for the impacts of the events of 1988. Impacts that are still to be felt today. That being the case, the present shifting in the wind warrants closer attention from both within and outside the country. It is gratifying to see signs of political activity returning to Yangon which more than any other town or city has wit- nessed so much in the span of half a century. This revival is happening at a measured pace, which may not satisfy some people. Rather than argue about how much or how little, this present juncture should be seen as a very good opportunity to draw lessons from the past and come up with something that is sober and considered and integrative. The buoyant mood of the present is certainly welcome, but at the same time it has to be mellowed and cautioned by the lessons of history. The unplanned and undirected nature of the transition has to be mentioned. Everyone vaguely expected one but it is hard to ascertain how ready they were. The convening of the newly elected Hluttaws (parliaments) and the installation of the new government in early 2011 is part of the political transition.