African Union African Development Empowered lives. Bank Group Resilient nations. Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda African Union African Development Empowered lives. Resilient nations. Bank Group Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda Ordering information To order copies of MDG Report 2014: Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, please contact: Publications Economic Commission for Africa P.O. Box 3001 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Tel: +251 11 544-9900 Fax: +251 11 551-4416 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.uneca.org © United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, African Union, African Development Bank and United Nations Development Programme, 2014 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia All rights reserved First printing October 2014 ISBN: 978-99944-61-32-5 eISBN: 978-99944-62-32-2 Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication. Designed and printed by the ECA Documents Publishing Unit. ISO 14001:2004 certified. Table of Contents Foreword ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................ix A note on methodology ................................................................................................................xi Acronyms and abbreviations ..................................................................................................... xii Executive summary ..................................................................................................................... xiv SECTION I: The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance .............................. 1 SECTION II: Tracking Progress .................................................................................................... 11 MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger ................................................................................................................11 MDG 2: Achieve universal primary education ....................................................................................................................32 MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women .......................................................................................... 40 MDG 4: Reduce child mortality .....................................................................................................................................................56 MDG 5: Improve maternal health ...............................................................................................................................................61 MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases .................................................................................................. 68 MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability ........................................................................................................................75 MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development ..............................................................................................85 SECTION III: Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda ...............................................................................................................103 Pillar One: Structural economic transformation and inclusive growth ..............................................................104 Pillar Two: Science, technology, and innovation (STI) ...................................................................................................108 Key priority areas .................................................................................................................................................................................111 Pillar Three: People-Centred Development.........................................................................................................................112 Pillar Four: Environmental Sustainability, Natural Resources Management, and Disaster Risk Management ...............................................................................................................................................................................114 Pillar Five: Peace and Security ......................................................................................................................................................117 Pillar Six: Financing and Partnership for Implementation of the Post-2015 Development Agenda ........119 SECTION IV: Conclusions and Policy Perspectives ...............................................................122 ANNEX 1: Selected Official Development Assistance Flows ...............................................126 ANNEX 2: Official List of MDG Indicators ...............................................................................129 References....................................................................................................................................132 Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda iii List of Figures Figure 0.1: Real GDP Growth (percent) in Africa excluding North Africa .....................................................................2 Figure 0.2: Trends in GDP per capita levels (in $) for developing regions, 1980-2010 ...........................................3 Figure 0.3: Illicit financial flows from Africa over the 1970-2009 period, $ billion ....................................................4 Figure 0.4: Trends in armed conflicts, 1990-2012 ........................................................................................................................5 Figure 0.5: Trend in GDP per capita levels across regions, 1990 (purchasing power parity) .............................7 Figure 0.6: Poverty trends in the United States (% below the national poverty line) ...........................................8 Figure 1.1: Africa’s 20 fastest-growing economies compared with China, India and Brazil, average annual growth, 2008-2013 ..........................................................................................................................13 Figure 1.2: Populations living above and below $1.25/day in low income countries (LICs), 1981-2010 ..................................................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 1.3: Average per capita income of the extreme poor in Africa excluding North Africa, 1990-2010 .................................................................................................................................................................................15 Figure 1.4: Global share of poverty among developing regions, 2010 (%) ...............................................................15 Figure 1.5: Progress in combating poverty in Africa (%).......................................................................................................18 Figure 1.6: Regional comparison of income inequality (Gini coefficient), 1990–2009 ........................................20 Figure 1.7: Correlations between growth and inequality in Africa ............................................................................... 22 Figure 1.8: Regional comparison of youth unemployment, 2007-13 ............................................................................24 Figure 1.9: Labour productivity: a comparison of East Asia, North Africa and Africa (excluding North Africa), 2001-13 ........................................................................................................................................................26 Figure 1.10: Regional performance on the Global Hunger Index, 1990-2013 ............................................................27 Figure 1.11: Progress in reducing undernutrition, 1990-2013 (%) ......................................................................................29 Figure 1.12: Past and future trends in eradicating poverty in Africa ...............................................................................31 Figure 2.1: Gap to net enrolment target in primary education, 2011 ...........................................................................33 Figure 2.2: Net Primary school enrolment rates by region ................................................................................................ 34 Figure 2.3: Primary school completion rate, male and female (%) .................................................................................35 Figure 2.4: Literacy rates of 15-24 years old, male and female, 2011 (%) ......................................................................37 Figure 3.1: Gender parity in primary education across regions, 1990 and 2011 .....................................................41 Figure 3.2: Progress on gender parity in primary school enrolment ............................................................................42 Figure 3.3: Summary of gender parity performance in primary school .....................................................................43 Figure 3.4: Progress