Climate Data and Modelling Analysis of the Indus Region Dr. Ghulam Rasul Climate Data and Modelling Analysis P a g e | 1 Climate Data and Modelling Analysis of the Indus Ecoregion Dr. Ghulam Rasul Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan (CCAP) - An European Union funded WWF Pakistan project Climate Data and Modelling Analysis P a g e | 2 Authors Dr. Ghulam Rasul, PMD Department Published in May 2012 under project ‘Building Capacity on Climate Change in Coastal Areas of Pakistan,’ WWF – Pakistan This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the World Wide Fund for Nature – Pakistan and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Any reproduction in full or part of this publication must mention the title and the above mentioned publisher as the copyright owner. ©2012 (First printed) by WWF – Pakistan 606-607, Fortune Centre, Block 6, P.E.C.H.S., Shahrah-e-Faisal, Karachi Tel: 021-34544791-2, Fax: 021-34544790, www.wwfpak.org/ccap Recommended Citation Rasul, G. 2012. Climate Data Modelling and Analysis of the Indus Ecoregion. World Wide Fund for Nature – Pakistan Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder. However, WWF does request advance written notification and appropriate acknowledgement. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. 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Climate Data and Modelling Analysis P a g e | 3 Table of Contents Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………… ................ 5 Section-1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Objective ................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Tasks and Deliverables ............................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Composition of Report .............................................................................................................. 7 Section-2: Some Facts about Global Warming ............................................................................... 8 2.1 Increase in Temperature……………………………………………… .................................... 5 2.2 Glaciers and sea level rise ......................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Reasons of Climate Change .................................................................................................... 10 Section-3: Pakistan Perspective .................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Temperature Variations .......................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Annual Temperature Variations .............................................................................................. 13 3.3 Summer and Winter Behaviour .............................................................................................. 14 3.4 Precipitation ............................................................................................................................ 15 3.5 Annual Rainfall Variability..................................................................................................... 17 3.6 Summer and Winter Behaviour .............................................................................................. 19 3.7 Extreme Precipitation Events .................................................................................................. 21 3.8 Sea Surface Temperature ........................................................................................................ 22 3.9 Sea Level Rise......................................................................................................................... 23 3.10 Rapid Glaciers Retreat .......................................................................................................... 24 3.11 Vulnerabilities of the Indus Delta ....................................................................................... 263 Climate Data and Modelling Analysis P a g e | 4 3.11.1 Droughts and Floods ........................................................................................................ 26 3.11.2 Historic Floods 2010 and 2011 ........................................................................................ 27 3.11.3 Saline Water Intrusion ..................................................................................................... 28 3.11.4 Coastal Erosion ................................................................................................................ 28 3.11.5 Increased Crop Water Requirement ................................................................................. 28 Section-4: Future Projection………….......... ........................... …………………………………25 4.1 Characteristics of SRES .......................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Global Emission Projections ................................................................................................... 30 4.3 Pakistan Temperature and Precipitation Projections .............................................................. 31 4.4 Temperature Projections for Indus Delta ................................................................................ 32 4.5 Precipitation Projections of Indus Delta ................................................................................. 34 Section-5: Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 35 Climate Data and Modelling Analysis P a g e | 5 Executive Summary Climate change has been seriously noticed due to the visible impact on water, agriculture, health, biodiversity, forest and socio-economic sectors around the globe. According to IPCC (2007), developing and the least developed countries are expected to suffer more due to climate change as compared to the developed countries. This is visible at the community level; in case of any climatic anomaly the poor people face the consequences mostly due to lack of resources and access to information. Anthropogenic activities are mainly held responsible for the surging trend of climate related disasters occurring in different parts of the world and marginal income people are the major sufferers. After the Industrial Revolution, emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere increased drastically from industry and vehicular fossil fuels. The continuous warming effect of these gases in the atmosphere is long term: easily lasting from about 50 years or more. Such gases have large warming potential and long life time to sustain warming process for decades to centuries. During 20th century, the increase in the global temperature was recorded as 0.76°C but in the first decade of this century 0.6°C rise has been noticed. Among the 16 warmest years recorded over the globe, 9 top most were from the first decade of 21st century. Pakistan lies in a geographical region where the temperature increases are expected to be higher than the global average; its land area is mostly arid and semi-arid (about 60 per cent of the area receives less than 250 mm of rainfall per year and 24 per cent receives between 250-500 mm); its rivers are predominantly fed by the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayan glaciers which are reported to be receding rapidly due to global warming; its economy is largely agrarian and hence highly climate sensitive; and because the country faces increasingly larger risks of variability in monsoon rains, hence large floods and extended droughts may cause large scale havoc. Under the influence of all these factors the water security, the food security and the energy security of the country are under serious threat. Compounding these problems are the expected increased risks to the coastal areas and the Indus deltaic region due to rising