Re-Assessment of the Baffin Bay and Kane Basin Polar Bear Subpopulations Final Report to the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on Polar Bear from the Scientific Working Group (SWG) of the Canada- Greenland Joint Commission on Polar Bear Prepared by: Stephen Atkinson (SWG), Erik W. Born (SWG), Kristin L. Laidre (SWG), Nicholas J. Lunn (SWG), Øystein Wiig (SWG) and external experts Todd Arnold, Markus Dyck, Eric V. Regehr, Harry Stern, and Seth Stapleton Edited by: Kristin L. Laidre and Nicholas J. Lunn 31 July 2016 Please cite as: SWG [Scientific Working Group to the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on Polar Bear]. 2016. Re-Assessment of the Baffin Bay and Kane Basin Polar Bear Subpopulations: Final Report to the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on Polar Bear. 31 July 2016: x + 636 pp. Table of Contents SWG Final report TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... Chapter 1 – Introduction .............................................................................................................1 1.1. Management History and Systems in Canada and Greenland related to BB and KB .....1 1.2. Previous Delineations and Assessments of the Baffin Bay and Kane Basin Subpopulations .........................................................................................................................3 1.3. Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on Polar Bear and the Scientific Working Group 4 1.4. Subpopulation Re-Assessment ........................................................................................5 Pilot aerial surveys in Baffin Bay in 2009 and 2010 ........................................................7 Survey options review ......................................................................................................8 Decision of the JC .............................................................................................................9 1.5. A Multi-Year Research Plan for Baffin Bay and Kane Basin .........................................9 Schedule ..........................................................................................................................11 1.6. Process of BB and KB Assessment (2011-2016) and Delays .......................................12 Program activities ...........................................................................................................12 Field activities .................................................................................................................12 Analyses ..........................................................................................................................14 Timeline of analyses and reporting .................................................................................15 1.7. Literature Cited ..............................................................................................................17 Figure 1.1 ...............................................................................................................................21 Chapter 2 - Population Delineation of Baffin Bay and Kane Basin .......................................22 Key Findings ..........................................................................................................................22 2.1. Subpopulation Delineation and Status Background ......................................................23 2.2. Methods .........................................................................................................................26 Genetics ..........................................................................................................................26 Satellite Telemetry Studies of Movements and Range Use ............................................27 Recaptures and Harvest Recoveries of Marked Bears ....................................................33 2.3. Results ............................................................................................................................36 Overall Study Area .........................................................................................................36 Genetics ..........................................................................................................................37 General Movements from Telemetry ..............................................................................38 Basis for Comparison of the 1990s and 2000s BB Satellite Telemetry Data .................40 Subpopulation KDEs and Overlap of Ranges ................................................................40 Overlap of Ranges between Decades .............................................................................41 Changes in Median Latitude from Telemetry .................................................................42 Movements across Subpopulation Boundaries from Telemetry .....................................42 Recaptures and Recoveries during Genetic Mark-Recapture Studies, 2011-14 .............44 Long-term Harvest Recoveries of BB and KB Marks ....................................................46 Movement of Bears between BB and DS .......................................................................46 2.4. Discussion ......................................................................................................................47 Genetics ..........................................................................................................................47 ii | Page Table of Contents SWG Final report Movements and Telemetry .............................................................................................47 Changes in Polar Bear Densities in Melville Bay, Northwest Greenland ......................49 Recoveries from Marked Bears ......................................................................................50 Short-term Movements ...................................................................................................50 Long-Term Harvest Recoveries ......................................................................................51 Sex and Age Class ..........................................................................................................52 Movement between Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ...........................................................54 2.5. Literature Cited ..............................................................................................................56 Tables and Figures .................................................................................................................62 Chapter 3 - Reassessing the 1990s Baffin Bay Data for Bias and Compatibility with the 2010s Data ..................................................................................................................................108 Key Findings ........................................................................................................................108 3.1. Background ..................................................................................................................109 Distribution of Mark-Recapture Sampling on Baffin Island ........................................111 Size of the Mark-Recapture Sampling Area on Baffin Island ......................................117 Temporary Emigration Related to the Availability of Sea ice .....................................118 Additional sampling considerations ............................................................................122 Development of an Individual Covariate to Explain Inland Habitat Use ....................123 Challenges with Using the 1990s Radio Telemetry Data .............................................124 Ramifications of Issues with the 1990s Baffin Bay Data .............................................125 3.2. Literature Cited ............................................................................................................129 Tables and Figures ...............................................................................................................132 Chapter 4 - Habitat and Habitat Use in Baffin Bay ..............................................................160 Key Findings ........................................................................................................................160 4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................161 4.2. Methods .......................................................................................................................162 Sea-Ice Analysis ...........................................................................................................162 Sea-Ice Habitat Use and Resource Selection Models ...................................................163 Terrestrial Habitat Use and Selection ...........................................................................166 4.3. Results ..........................................................................................................................173 Sea-Ice Habitat ..............................................................................................................173 Terrestrial Habitat Use and Selection ...........................................................................177 4.4. Discussion ....................................................................................................................183 4.5. Literature Cited ............................................................................................................185