MITMIT Airline Industry Recent Trend ICATICAT Update (November 2005) Prof. R. John Hansman With the help of the Faculty and Students of the MIT Global Industry Study Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz [email protected] MITMIT ICATICAT RPK by Region Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region 1400 1200 1000 North America Europe 800 Asia and Pacific 600 Latin America & Caribbean RPK (billion) Middle East 400 Africa 200 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers MITMIT ICATICAT Freight Trends by Region Freight Tonne-Kilometers by Region 60 50 North America 40 Europe Asia and 30 Pacific Latin America & Caribbean FTK (billion) 20 Middle East Africa 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers Updated MITMIT Oct 05 U.S. Domestic RPMs ICATICAT Domestic Traffic - RPMs (Billions) 50 s n lio l i B 45 40 35 30 25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report Data source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service Updated MITMIT U.S. Airline Load Factors 2000- Oct 05 ICATICAT 2005 Domestic Traffic - Load Factor 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 55.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report Data source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service Updated MITMIT U.S. Average Domestic Yield 2000-Oct 05 ICATICAT 2005 16.00 15.00 14.00 ) ile /m s t n 13.00 e c d ( l e i Y 12.00 11.00 10.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Data source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report, 8 US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN). MITMIT US Systemwide Passenger Revenue ICATICAT as % of GDP 1.05% 1.00% ≅ $30B 0.95% of Nominal GDP* % 0.90% e as 0.85% Historical Band er Revenu 0.80% 0.75% Passeng e 0.70% stemwid Sy 0.65% 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 *Four-quarter rolling passenger revenue derived from government filings of major and national passenger airlines Sources: ATA Airline Cost Index; Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Transportation ATA Analysis Updated MITMIT Oct 05 U.S. Domestic Yield 2000-2005 ICATICAT Yield - Domestic (c per mile) 16 14 ) e 12 l i m r 10 e p 8 c ( d l 6 e Yi 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report, 8 US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN). Updated MITMIT Oct 05 Atlantic Yield 2000-2005 ICATICAT Yield - Atlantic (c per mile) 14 13 ) e 12 l i m r 11 pe 10 c d ( l 9 e i Y 8 7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report, 8 US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN). Updated MITMIT Oct 05 Latin Yield 2000-2005 ICATICAT Yield - Latin (c per mile) 15 14 ) 14 le i 13 m r e 13 p c ( 12 d l e i 12 Y 11 11 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report, 8 US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN). Updated MITMIT Oct 05 Pacific Yield 2000-2005 ICATICAT Yield - Pacific (c per mile) 12 11 ) e l i 10 m r pe 9 c d ( l e 8 Yi 7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report, 8 US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN). MITMIT US Airlines Net Profit Model Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation ICATICAT Cycle Period = 11.3 yr eFolding Time = 7.9 yr MITMIT Airline Profits (Losses) ICATICAT $300 $(100) 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 ns $(500) illio m in ) $(900) s s American (Lo e United m $(1 300) o Delta Northwest t Inc e Continental N $(1 700) Southwest JetBlue America West Alaska $(2 100) ATA September 2001 US Airways $(2 500) Data source: Airline Financial Data, [airlines websites] MITMIT Profitable Air Carriers During 2005 Q2 ICATICAT $500 $100 s n io 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 ll i m $(300) n i ) s s o (L American e m $(700) o Continental c In t Southwest e N JetBlue $(1 100) America West Alaska US Airways $(1 500) Data source: Airline reports MITMIT Cargo Operation Not Affected ICATICAT $1,600 West Coast UPS FedEx Dock Strike SARS Iraq War $1,200 9/11 Attacks in millions $800 me o Inc t e N $400 $0 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 Data source: Companies’ annual reports MITMIT Market Cap: US Majors, 07-Sep- ICATICAT 2005 Alaska Airlines 4.8% AirTran Frontier 4.8% 2.0% American West Midwest Airlines Airlines 0.2% 1.3% FLYi American Airlines US Airways 0.1% 10.7% 0.1% United Air Lines 0.5% Continental Airlines 4.4% Delta Air Lines 1.0% JetBlue Airways 10.6% Southwest Airlines 58.0% Northwest Airlines 1.5% Total Market Cap: $18.6 billion Data source: Yahoo Finance. MITMIT Current Market Cap vs. RPM Share ICATICAT US Majors 25% 20% e Southwest Shar 2005) M f P 15% o t American r y R a hl p t s United r ont i US Airways e f 10% Northwest h t Delta age M or f ( ver JetBlue A AmeriCcaonnt Winentestal 5% Alaska FLYi AirTran Frontier 0% Midwest 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Relative Market Cap 09/05 Source: Yahoo! Finance and airline traffic reports MITMIT ICATICAT Chap 11 Bankruptcy y TWA 06/1995-08/1995 and 01/2001-12/2001 y US Air 08/2002 – 03/2003 and 09/2004 – 09/2005 y United 12/2002 - present y Delta 09/2005 - present y Northwest 09/2005 - present y ATA 10/2004 – present MITMIT ASMs of the Top 11 US airlines ICATICAT 1000 Total ASMs Bankrupt ASMs 900 llions i B 800 700 600 Projected based on 2005 Q1 & Q2 results 500 for the top 11 US 400 airlines 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 UA UA US UA UA US DL TW TW US US TZ NW Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics Schedule T-1 ASM Analysis data MITMIT LCC Profitability ICATICAT 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1H05 20.0% Frontier Southwest 15.0% AirTran JetBlue JetBlue 10.0% Southwest JetBlue Southwest Southwest Frontier 5.0% America West Southwest Southwest Spirit Frontier JetBlue JetBlue AirTran ATA/Spirit AirTran 0.0% AirTran America West Frontier Frontier AirTran America West ATA Spirit America West (5.0%) Frontier Net Profit Margin Midway ATA Spirit (10.0%) America West National ATA (15.0%) National JetBlue America West Spirit (20.0%) Vanguard National Spirit Vanguard Independence Vanguard ATA Midway ATA Midway Independence Source: DOT Form 41 reports ATA Analysis MITMIT Low-Cost Carrier Envy (or not) ICATICAT Emergence of LCCs Canada (7, 1 in 2004) Europe (60, 3 in 2004) CanJet Westjet Aer Arann Baboo Fare4U Sun Express HMY Airways Zip Air 2000 Basiq Air German Wings Swedline JetsGo Airlines Canada West Air Baltic Bexx Air Germania Express ThomsonFly Tango Airlines Air Berlin BMI Baby Globespan V Bird Air Finland British European Hapag Lloyd Express Virgin Express USA (19, 4 in 2003/2004) Air Luxor Lite BudgetAir Hellas Jet VLM Airlines AirTran Spirit Airlines Air Polonia Corendon Helvetic Airways VolareWeb Allegiant Air Song Air Scotland Deutsche BA Iceland Express Windjet Vola American West Sun Country Airlines Air Southwest EasyJet Ryanair Smart Wings ATA USA 3000 Airlines Air Wales Evolavia Snalskjutsen Wizz Air Frontier Airlines Vacation Express Alpi Eagles Excel Airways SnowFlake Airlines Hop Interstate Jet Ted Azzurra Air Fairline Austria Sterling JetBlue Airways Independence Air Asia/Pacific (20, 8 in 2004) Virgin USA Midwest Express Air Arabia Virgin Blue Pan American Africa (2) Air Asia Air Blue Southeast Airlines South America (3) 1Time Air Deccan Air One Southwest Airlines Bra Kulula Athena Air Services BackpackersXpress Gol Citilink Jetstar U Air Freedom Air Nok Air Lion Airways Pacific Blue One-Two-Go SkyAsia Skymark Airlines Tiger Airways Skynet Asia Airways Spring ValuAir Source: http://www.etn.nl/lcostair.htm, airline news Total 111 LCCs, 17 started/to start in 2003/2005 MITMIT America West - USAirways ICATICAT Proposed Merger MITMIT America West - USAirways ICATICAT Proposed Merger MITMIT America West - USAirways ICATICAT Proposed Merger Sept 1 Dat a source: ATA; U st data: http://w Crude Oil: Spot Price per Barrel $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ICAT MIT ICAT MIT Jan-86 . S. major, national, large ww. Jan-87 bl oomberg.com/energy/ Jan-88 Jan-89 Cr J e ude O t Jan-90 F A uel ( ver Jan-91 i l ( R ag L ) Jan-92 ) regional pass e C Jan-93 r u Trends inFuelPrice Jan-94 d e O Jan-95 e i n l an ger Jan-96 d Jet a nd cargo airlines; all se Jan-97 Jan-98 F Jan-99 u e l P Jan-00 r i ces Jan-01 Jan-02 rvice Jan-03 s Jan-04 Jan-05 60¢ 80¢ 100 120 140 160 180 40¢ ¢ ¢ ¢ ¢ ¢ n o l l a G r e p d i a P ce i r P : el u F Jet MITMIT Increasing Jet Fuel Crack Spread ICATICAT $75 $70 $65 $60 14.72 $55 $50 $45 9.28 $40 $35 5.90 $30 7.49 3.63 5.56 7.42 $25 55.31 4.91 4.80 4.18 4.34 3.13 $20 5.10 3.67 41.44 4.69 3.55 Average Price of Fuel ($/Barrel) $15 31.14 30.30 25.92 26.10 $10 24.50 22.15 21.48 20.56 20.60 19.25 18.46 18.43 17.19 $5 14.40 $0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 YTD Sep- Crude Oil Jet Crack 05 Source: Air Transport Association analysis of Energy Information Administration data MITMIT Fuel Efficiency ICATICAT Fuel Efficiency 50 45 n llo 40 a G r e 35 p s 30 ile M 25 20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Revenue Passenger Miles Available Seat Miles Source: ATA data MITMIT US Airlines Net Profit Model Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation ICATICAT Cycle Period = 11.3 yr eFolding Time = 7.9 yr MITMIT Airline Profits Adjusted