RWANDA NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS - LAND March 2018 The Rwanda Natural Capital Accounts for Land, has been compiled, designed and published by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) and the Ministry of Environment with assistance from the World Bank and the WAVES Global Partnership. Additional information about the NCA Land 2016 may be obtained from: NISR: KN, 2 Av, 36, PO. Box 6139, Kigali Rwanda; Telephone: +250 252 571 035 Email: [email protected] Ministry of Environment: PO Box 3502, Kigali Rwanda; Telephone +250 788 305 291 Website: www.minirena.gov.rw Ministry of Land and Forest: PO Box 3502, Kigali Rwanda; Telephone +250 788 305 291 Website: www.minilaf.gov.rw Cover image constructed from maps produced by the Regional Centre for Mapping Resources for Development, available from www.rcmrd.org and available on RLMUA Land Use Planning Portal www.rwandalanduse.rnra.rw. Recommended citation: Government of Rwanda (NISR, Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Lands and Forestry), Natural Capital Accounts for Land, March 2018. ii Contents LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... VII ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................... XI CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW ............................................................... 1 1.1 Rwanda’s Development Context and Natural Capital Accounting .......................................... 1 1.2 Land, Agriculture, and Economic Issues .................................................................................. 2 1.3 Natural Capital Accounting for Land: Rationale ..................................................................... 4 1.4 Organization of the Document .................................................................................................. 5 CHAPTER II: LAND USE AND CHANGES ............................................................................ 7 2.1 Land Administration Data and Analysis ................................................................................... 7 2.2 Land Uses and Changes, National Level, 2014 and 2015 ........................................................ 8 2.3 Land Uses and Changes, Provincial Level, 2014 and 2015 .................................................... 16 2.4 Analysis of Changes in Parcel Size ........................................................................................ 22 CHAPTER III: LAND COVER CHANGE (1990-2015) ......................................................... 28 3.1 Overview of Land Cover Data and Sources ........................................................................... 28 3.2 National Level Land Cover Analysis - 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015...................................... 28 3.3 Provincial Level Land Cover Analysis - 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 ................................... 32 CHAPTER IV: LAND TRANSACTION VALUES AND COMPARISONS ....................... 38 4.1 Overview of LAIS Data on Transaction Values ..................................................................... 38 iii 4.2 Land Parcel Transaction Values by Province and District ..................................................... 41 4.3 Land Parcel Transaction Values by Land Use ........................................................................ 44 4.4 Areas for Improvement in Preparation for Monetary Account ............................................... 46 CHAPTER V: LAND ACCOUNTS: ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS ................................ 47 5.1 Policy and Development Planning Issues ............................................................................... 47 5.2 Coordination and Institutional Issues...................................................................................... 48 5.3 Data Quality and Data Collection Issues ................................................................................ 50 5.4 Capacity and Technology Issues ............................................................................................. 51 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 53 ANNEXES ................................................................................................................................... 57 ANNEX A: Land Uses and Changes at the District Level ........................................................... 58 ANNEX B: Methodologies and Definitions ................................................................................. 67 ANNEX C: Area and Value of Land Parcel Transactions by Province, 2014 ............................. 69 iv List of Tables Table 1: Rwanda Population Distribution and Density (using LAIS Area), 2012 ......................... 4 Table 2: Major Land Use Categories and Share of Total Land Use in Rwanda, 2014 ................... 8 Table 3: Rwanda Land Use Change by Land Use Category, National Level, 2014....................... 9 Table 4: Rwanda Land Use Change by Land Use Category, National Level, 2015....................... 9 Table 5: Physical Asset Accounts for Land Use, National Level, 2015 (in hectares) .................. 11 Table 6: Land Use Net Change Matrix, National Level, 2014 (in hectares) ................................ 13 Table 7: Land Use Net Change Matrix, National Level, 2015 (in hectares) ................................ 14 Table 8: Rwanda Land Use Change by Land Use Category, Provincial Level, 2014 .................. 16 Table 9: Rwanda Land Use Change by Land Use Category, Provincial Level, 2015 .................. 17 Table 10: Land Use Shares - National and Provincial Level, 2015 .............................................. 21 Table 11: Average Parcel Size by Province, 2014 and 2015 ........................................................ 23 Table 12: Average Parcel Size by Land Use, National Level, 2014 and 2015 ............................. 26 Table 13: National Land Cover Comparison, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 (in hectares) ............ 31 Table 14: Land Cover Change, by Province, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 (in hectares) ............. 33 Table 15: Summary of Parcel Transaction Data from LAIS, 2014 .............................................. 38 Table 16: Parcel Transaction Statistical Measures from LAIS ..................................................... 39 Table 17: Summary of Number, Area, and Value of Parcel Transactions, by Province, 2014 .... 42 Table 18: Summary of Number, Area and Value of Parcel Transactions, by District, 2014 ....... 43 Table 19: Summary of Area and Value of Parcel Transactions, by LAIS Land Use, 2014 ......... 45 List of Figures Figure 1: Land Cover and Land Change in Rwanda, 1990-2015 ................................................... 3 Figure 2: Overall Land Use, National Level: Opening Stock 2014, Closing Stock 2015 ........... 10 Figure 3: Rate of Change by Land Use Category, Beginning in 2014 – Ending in 2015 ............ 15 Figure 4: Overall Land Use – Provincial Comparison, Closing Stock 2015 ................................ 18 Figure 5: Overall Land Use Shares, National and Provincial Level Comparison, Closing Stock 2015............................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 6: Net Changes in Land Use, National and Provincial Levels, 2014-2015 ....................... 20 Figure 7: Average Parcel Size by Province, 2014 and 2015 ......................................................... 23 Figure 8: Share of Area by Parcel Size Category, Opening of Year 2014 ................................... 24 Figure 9: Share of Area by Parcel Size Category, Closing of Year 2015 ..................................... 25 Figure 10: Average Parcel Size by District, 2014 and 2015 ......................................................... 25 Figure 11: Average Parcel Size by Land Use, National Level, 2014 and 2015 ........................... 27 Figure 12: National Land Cover and Administrative Land Use Comparison, 2015 .................... 29 Figure 13: National Land Cover Comparison, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 ................................ 31 Figure 14: Land Cover Change, by Province, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 ................................. 32 Figure 15: Land Cover Change in Shares, by Province, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 ................. 34 Figure 16: Land Cover Change, Focus on Eastern Province, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 ......... 35 Figure 17: Frequency Distribution of Parcel Transaction Values, 2014 ...................................... 40 Figure 18: Average Land Price - Changes as Different Levels of Outliers are Omitted .............. 41 Figure 19: Area Transacted and Average Transaction Value, 2014 ............................................. 42 Figure 20: Summary of Area and Value of Parcel Transactions, by LAIS Land Use, 2014 ........ 45 v Acknowledgements The Rwanda Natural Capital Accounts (NCA) for Land, has been prepared through a collaborative effort of Ministry of Environment (MOE), Ministry of Lands and Forestry (MINILAF) and