RAPID ASSESSMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE Potential threats and impact to Bali´s economy and community livelihoods and the role of the tourism industry Chapter 1 Climate Change and its Potential Effects on Bali.....1 Tourism and Climate Change.....2 Chapter 2 Travel, Tourism and the Socio-Economics of Bali.....4 The history of Tourism development in Bali.....4 Resilience of the Tourism Industry.....6 Investment.....8 Population Pressures.....9 Lack of Planning and Enforcement of Regulations.....11 Land Use, Agriculture and Forestry.....11 Coastal impacts and The Coral Triangle.....12 Handicraft and Manufacturing Industries.....12 Export and Import.....13 Solid Wastes Issues.....13 Water Scarcity.....14 Infrastructure.....14 Study Conducted under auspices Power supply.....14 of Bali Fokus by: Yuyun Ismawati, Chapter 3 Potential Effects of Climate Change on Bali.....17 Muriel Ydo, and Kadek Krishna Changes to the Physical Environment.....17 Adidharma for WWF’s Coral The Built Environment.....17 The Tourism Sector.....18 Triangle Network Initiative. Key Issues.....18 Possible Measures.....19 Edits by Richard Leck and layout Chapter 4 The Role of the Tourism Industry.....20 by Nina Narvsten for WWF. Key Respondents - background to this study.....20 Programs Already in Place.....21 Barriers and Limitations.....21 WWF wishes to thank and Opportunities.....23 acknowledge all the tourism operators, Chapter 5 Conclusions & Recommendations.....24 and tourism and travel experts that Responsible Tourism.....24 have participated in the meetings and Responsible Travelers.....26 interviews for their contributions. Lobbying.....27 Appendix A: This study was funded by the Overview of Industry Associations and Government Regulating.....28 Turing Foundation. Authorities: References.....29 Despite the lack of regulations and incentives, many players in Bali’s tourism industry have been proactive in establishing sustainable tourism practices. Like many locations that have experienced recent rapid growth, Bali faces a number of acute environmental issues such as pollution, loss of important natural systems and inappropriate development, which need urgent addressing. However, climate change looms large on this small island’s horizon and will add increased pressure to these existing threats. Bali’s economy is almost entirely reliant on a robust tourism industry and the tourism industry in turn relies on the health of Bali’s natural assets. How the threats posed by climate change are managed may have a dramatic impact on the future viability of Bali’s tourism industry. This report concludes that the leaders of the tourism industry have a vital role to play in protecting Bali’s environment, while also protecting their industry. They will need to harness the momentum of global public concern of climate change to unite their industry in a sustained effort to reduce their ecological footprint and plan for a changing future. The tourism industry of Bali has been resilient to the changes in the world’s global political climate, but can it survive nature’s climate change? Indonesia is a unique archipelago of over 17,000 islands with two thirds of its area covered by sea. Home to 220 million people, Indonesia is the world’s fourth populous nation. Rapid developments in land use to exploit forest resources and the growing patterns of consumption have turned it into the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. Bali is Indonesia’s most popular tourist destination. This small island constitutes only 0.3% of Indonesia’s landmass, but is yet home to 1.4% of Indonesia’s population - 80% of who rely on income generation related to the tourism industry. The pace of development in Bali has been rapid, and increasing incomes from emerging sectors have lured Balinese away from the relative self-suffi ciency of a traditional agrarian way of life. Vital Statistics on Bali1 Land Area 563,286 hectares, 10% in critical condition Forested Land 23% Length of Coast 430 km on mainland, 99km on surrounding islands, 86.5 km badly eroded Population 3,263,296 (in 2006) Density 579/km² Length of sealed roads 7,050.38 km 1Bali dalam Angka 2007, BPS Bali Province 2007 CHAPTER 1 Climate Change and its Potential Effects on Bali Climate change represents an enormous threat for developing countries The changes in weather patterns have caused severe fl oods in certain such as Indonesia. Poverty, along with the terrible infl uence it plays areas and more extreme droughts in others. It is feared that an explosion upon human life, is expected to exacerbate with the impact of climate of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and bird fl u could occur in change, requiring more than simply aid in funds to improve it. the future. Crop harvest reduction may lead to severe food shortages, while changes to habitat are damaging marine ecosystems, threatening The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change extinction to 15-40% of species biodiversity. These effects, attributed (UNFCCC) is one of the commitments that emerged from the 1992 to global warming, are exacerbated by the already acute pressures that Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Kyoto Protocol is a humans are placing on the nation’s environment. Small islands are protocol to the UNFCCC with the objective of reducing greenhouse threatened with submersion and erosion, which may cause internal gases that cause climate change. displacement. The main objective of this convention is to stabilize the concentration of Increase of temperature and severe drought leads to a decrease in soil greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere that are hazardous to the climate fertility which in turn threatens food security. Poor people, with low system. Several waste gases such as methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide capacity to deal with change, fewer resources, and high dependency on (CO2) are referred to as greenhouse gases because of their greenhouse tenuous resources, will suffer most. effect in trapping the heat of the sun’s radiation inside earth’s atmosphere. Bali has seen severe environmental degradation in the past three decades due to changing land use and lifestyles. A warming of its A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) microclimate appears evident in symptoms such as drought, fl oods confi rmed fi ndings that the increasing greenhouse gas emissions are and loss of marine habitat through coral bleaching. forming a heat-trapping layer that is growing thicker and thicker. It is estimated that the earth’s average surface temperature has increased by Under IPCC scenarios, it is estimated that temperature may increase one to three degrees Celsius within this century. This trend potentially from 0.72 to 3.92°C. Up to a 2°C rise will have high impacts on Bali’s has drastic impacts on the planet, and could spell disaster if there is no coral reefs and much of its marine environment. Beyond a 2°C rise the immediate change in behavior to curb greenhouse gasses. impacts will be potentially catastrophic for Bali’s natural resources and the people and industries that depend on them. 1 Tourism and Climate Change The tourism industry encompasses an enormous array of businesses, activities and people. These range from luxury hotel chains to National Park campgrounds, from tourist boards to government departments, and from tour operators to conservation organizations. The various interests involved can be loosely grouped into four categories: the host population, tourist guests, tourism organizations and the natural environment. An examination of these four major sets of interests indicates, at fi rst sight, that they have mutually-reinforcing aims in ensuring sustainable tourism development2. Predicted changes to the world’s climate give substantial cause for concern to the tourism industry. Sea level rise threatens the viability of many coastal and island destinations. Climate change also seems likely to increase the magnitude, frequency and risk for extreme climatic events such as prolonged drought, storms and sea surges, making it diffi cult for tourists to travel in these areas3. Concerned about the impacts of the climate change to the tourism industry, in April 2003, the World Tourism Organization arranged the fi rst International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism. “The calendar that has been giving Balinese a lot of guidance about when is the best 2 Erlet Cater; The Geographical Journal, Vol. 161, 1995 time to do things, especially traditional farming, is no longer accurate. It may need to 3 Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Climate Change be calibrated to refl ect the changes that have already happened.” and Tourism, Djerba, Tunisia, 9-11 April 2003 Bayu, Director of Friends of National Parks Foundation 2 An important output of the conference was the issuance of the Djerba Declaration on Tourism and Climate Change. The declaration calls upon all interested parties to continue research efforts, encourage sustainability in tourism, raise awareness of the issues involved and use the declaration as a framework for future action4. A recurrent theme of the Djerba’s tourism and climate change conference was the need to recognize a two-way relationship between tourism and climate change. On one hand, tourism has an obligation to minimize its adverse impact on the environment and thus on the emission of green- house gases which in turn contribute to climate change. On the other hand, it was recognized that changes to the world’s climate would have a direct impact on many tourism destinations with far reaching