10 FOOD SAFETY AND QUALITY SERIES ISSN 2415-1173 FAO GUIDE TO RANKING FOOD SAFETY RISKS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL FAO GUIDE TO RANKING FOOD SAFETY RISKS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS ROME, 2020 Required citation: FAO. 2020. FAO guide to ranking food safety risks at the national level. Food Safety and Quality Series No 10. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb0887en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. 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Layout: Tomaso Lezzi CONTENTS Preface ........................................................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................................x Abbreviations and acronyms ................................................................................................... xi Executive summary ................................................................................................................. xiii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives.............................................................................................................. 2 1.2 How this guidance document was developed ...................................................... 3 1.3 The role of risk ranking in risk analysis .............................................................. 3 CHAPTER 2 PROPOSED RISK RANKING APPROACH .................................................................... 7 2.1 Step 1: Define the scope ........................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 Define the purpose ....................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 Select what will be ranked ......................................................................... 10 2.1.3 Screen foods and hazards for overall relevance and risk potential .......... 13 2.2 Step 2: Develop the approach ............................................................................. 17 2.2.1 Select the risk ranking method .................................................................. 17 2.2.2 Select the metrics for ranking risks ........................................................... 18 2.2.3 Collect and evaluate appropriateness of data ............................................ 21 2.3 Step 3: Conduct the risk ranking analysis and report results ........................... 25 2.4 Prioritization ....................................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 3 CASE STUDIES .......................................................................................................31 3.1 Microbial case study ........................................................................................... 31 3.1.1 Step 1: Define the scope ............................................................................. 31 3.1.2 Step 2: Develop the approach .................................................................... 35 3.1.3 Step 3: Conduct the risk ranking analysis and report results ................... 36 3.2 Chemical case study ............................................................................................ 40 3.2.1 Step 1: Define the scope ............................................................................. 40 3.2.2 Step 2: Develop the approach .................................................................... 44 3.2.3 Step 3: Conduct the risk ranking analysis and report results ................... 46 CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION .........................................................................................................49 iii REFERENCES ...........................................................................................................51 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................57 ANNEXES ANNEX A. RISK RANKING EXPERT BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES .....................................63 ANNEX B. EXAMPLES OF FOOD SAFETY RISK RANKING EFFORTS ................................69 ANNEX C. LIST OF POTENTIAL MICROBIAL AND CHEMICAL HAZARDS TO BE CONSIDERED IN FOOD SAFETY RISK RANKING EFFORTS ............................................71 ANNEX D. POTENTIAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION FOR CONDUCTING RISK RANKING EFFORTS ...........................................................................................75 ANNEX E. EXAMPLES OF FOOD CATEGORIZATION .......................................................81 ANNEX F. OVERVIEW OF RISK RANKING METHODS .....................................................89 Qualitative methods–outcomes without numerical values ........................................... 89 Decision flowcharts ............................................................................................... 90 Deliberative process ............................................................................................... 90 Semi-quantitative–numerical outcomes without a unit of measurement ..................... 91 Risk matrix ............................................................................................................. 91 Multi-criteria decision analysis ............................................................................. 94 Quantitative methods–numerical outcomes with specific units ................................... 96 Burden of disease methods .................................................................................... 97 Quantitative risk assessment ................................................................................. 98 ANNEX G. WHO ESTIMATES OF THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF FOODBORNE DISEASES ........99 iv TABLES 1. Assessing causal link between a food and/or hazard and illness ......................... 14 2. Potential metrics for risk ranking of microbial and chemical hazards ................ 20 3. Food categorization scheme used in the risk ranking .......................................... 32 4. List of 46 potential microbial