Market Renewal PROSPECTUS March 2004 2 RENEW North Staffordshire • Prospectus • March 2004 Foreword This Market Renewal Prospectus has been assembled through a highly distinctive approach, which has combined an integrated research programme with the experience of local people. This has led to a thorough understanding of how the urban form in North Staffordshire has developed and how the system currently works. The response to this intelligence gathering exercise has resulted in the development of policies and programmes as the findings from the research have become available over the last twelve months. The research programme was aided by a Consortium of Consultants incorporating housing specialists, urban designers, planners, economic development specialists, transport specialists and demographers. The Consortium worked in collaboration with the Renew North Staffordshire Team to produce the body of evidence which demonstrates how the urban form in North Staffordshire is developing and crucially, where the Housing Market Renewal programme fits within the wider public policy framework. The research programme has produced a hierarchy of strategic responses to: reshape the urban form, develop a Central Business District, enhance the environment, suggest the preferred location of new housing developments and shape the Housing Market Renewal Investment Programme. This Prospectus summarises detailed findings and policy proposals highlighted in 18 technical appendices submitted to the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister to support Renew North Staffordshire’s bid for Housing Market Renewal Fund Resources. Ideally, the reader will have examined these appendices and digested their socio-economic and policy implications before reading this Prospectus which integrates their implications and develops a strategy to address the identified drivers of change. The major benefit of Renew North Staffordshire’s distinctive approach is that by integrating the analysis of a multi-disciplinary group, we have been able to identify the highly distinctive features of the urban environment in North Staffordshire such as: • a highly fractured urban form; • relatively low sub-regional population loss; • a coalescence of ground instability and poor stock condition; • very low average incomes; and • a history of very short-range residential moves which have suburbanised a polycentric conurbation. Despite the difficulties inherent in making North Staffordshire’s urban form competitive within a 21st century knowledge based economy, the area does have many advantages which will enable it to revive and reconnect with the vibrant economic and social life surrounding the conurbation. This will be a long term process and is thus reflected in the Strategy and the Business Plan accompanying the Prospectus. However the social and economic benefits of having a healthy, stable and prosperous North Staffordshire will be significant to the regional economic and public sector finances generally by the end of this project. RENEW North Staffordshire • Prospectus • March 2004 3 4 RENEW North Staffordshire • Prospectus • March 2004 Executive Summary The Development of North Staffordshire The North Staffordshire conurbation grew up from the towns and villages which were built around its natural resources of clay, coal and iron ore. The six towns of Stoke-on-Trent gradually spread into neighbouring Newcastle-under-Lyme and continued expanding without an obvious single centre during the 19th and 20th centuries. The opening of large coal mines on the edges of the conurbation later in the 20th century continued the spread of industry and housing. Closure and reclamation of former industrial land has been a constant feature of the past 250 years, but this process has sped up considerably over the past 25 years. Nearly 80 pottery factories are recorded as having closed since 1975, together with the last remaining mines and Shelton steel works, while the Michelin tyre factory has contracted greatly. This has left more than 900 acres of land capable of development. But reclamation of individual sites is difficult because they are scattered across the sub-region and served mainly by an outworn, Victorian road network. The building of large council estates in the 1950s and increasing suburban development over the past 50 years has caused further urban spread and a marked decline in population in the central areas. While the population of North Staffordshire as a whole has remained broadly static over the past 20 years, the population of Stoke- on-Trent has fallen by 9,200 over the past 20 years and is predicted to fall by 8,600 over the next 20 years. New Regeneration Opportunities The decline of North Staffordshire’s traditional industries and the lack of significant regeneration activity between 1968 and 1995 now means the area faces a significant challenge to become competitive. In particular the housing stock is a barrier to encouraging new inward investment and growth. Nonetheless, North Staffordshire has significant assets to work with including its central location, large quantities of urban green space, two universities, a medical technologies cluster, highly competitive land and labour costs, a significant ceramics and tourism industry and a large catchment area. It is also benefiting from major investment from other agencies in economic renewal, health care, education and the environment. We aim to link housing renewal to broader economic renewal by ensuring policies for housing are supported by complementary strategies for transport, economic development and planning. The North Staffordshire Housing Market Average house prices in North Staffordshire in 2002 were 60 percent of the West Midlands average, but in Stoke-on-Trent average price were 47 percent of the regional average. House prices are also rising more slowly in North Staffordshire compared to the West Midlands, and more slowly in Stoke-on-Trent than elsewhere in North Staffordshire. Yet there is a vibrant new build market in and around North Staffordshire. Detailed research with people buying new property in market towns surrounding the conurbation shows they have generally poor perceptions of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, although they use the area for shopping and leisure. Further research with people buying property in the conurbation shows strong loyalty to the area, a strong desire for better housing and concern at crime and a poor environment in Stoke-on-Trent. RENEW North Staffordshire • Prospectus • March 2004 5 The Pathfinder Area The pathfinder area contains around 67,000 properties. It includes the majority of the old six towns of Stoke-on- Trent, the large social housing estates to the south and east of Stoke-on-Trent, the social housing estates to the west of Newcastle-under-Lyme, together with the former Coal Board estates of Parksite, Crackley, Galleys Bank and Biddulph East. There are a number of generic issues which affect the housing market in the pathfinder area. These include: • Obsolescence: Thousands of older properties are now technically obsolete because they have not been upgraded and because demand for this housing has changed with people’s aspirations and shifting populations. Poor stock condition and unstable ground conditions makes improvement unviable given the social and economic returns. • Surplus housing: There is a crude numerical surplus now of 2,500-3,000 properties, but this figure would grow significantly over the next 20 years without action. • Unpopular neighbourhoods: These are caused by deprivation, stigma, crime, unpopular property and design, location and poor environment. The Social Makeup of the Pathfinder Area Relatively few people in the pathfinder area own their own homes, while more people rent from social landlords, compared to all North Staffordshire. The area is home to larger proportions of people who are single, lone parents or from ethnic communities than the rest of North Staffordshire. Terraced housing particularly houses people from ethnic minorities, students and working people on low incomes, while social housing houses people who are: disproportionately prone to unemployment; the elderly; lone parents; and those without qualifications. Average annual household income in the pathfinder area is £15,669. Performance of the Local Economy Residents’ ability to pay for affordable, well-maintained housing is affected by job opportunities. Economic activity rates, skill levels and wages are all relatively low, although education achievement is improving. Job losses over the past 20 years have been offset by the creation of new employment. However, new businesses such as distribution centres and Keele Science Park, have tended to be located on the edges of the conurbation. With further closure of older industry likely there is a danger the economic weakness of the older town centres will be worsened. Commercial vacancy rates in the five main towns of Stoke-on-Trent vary between 12 and 18 percent, but Newcastle is faring substantially better at just five percent. Despite its large catchment area, North Staffordshire does not have a recognisable Central Business District. Stoke-on-Trent supports around 22,000 city centre jobs, whereas similar sized Derby has 32,000, Wolverhampton has 35,000, Leicester has 47,000 and Nottingham has 59,000. It is critical that housing market renewal is linked to the creation of higher value employment, retraining, a more diverse and aspirational housing stock, a radical improvement in the urban environment and infrastructure,