EDITED BY HOW TO CONTINUE AL-ISTRABADI FEISAL AL-ISTRABADI THE FIGHT AGAINST ISIS and SUMIT GANGULY The Future of ISIS is the first major study to look at the prospects for the Islamic State in the near term and what the global community, including the United States, can do to counter it. Edited by two distinguished scholars at Indiana University, the book brings THE FUTURE OF ISIS / GANGULY together a notable group of authors who examine the role ISIS has played in unsettling the regional order in the Middle East while at the same time carrying out terrorist acts internationally. THE Feisal al-Istrabadi is founding director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and a professor of international law and diplomacy at Indiana University, Bloomington. He served as FUTURE ambassador and deputy permanent representative of Iraq to the United Nations from 2004 to 2010 and was assigned to the Office of the Iraqi Minister for Foreign Affairs until 2012. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. OF Sumit Ganguly is a distinguished professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington, where he holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations. He is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. ISIS REGIONAL and BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS Washington, D.C. INTERNATIONAL www.brookings.edu.press Cover design by Jamie Keenan IMPLICATIONS al-Istrabadi-Ganguly_Future of ISIS_Cover.indd 1 5/1/18 12:46 PM The F uture of ISIS 00-3216-7-fm.indd 1 04/17/18 12:45 am 00-3216-7-fm.indd 2 04/17/18 12:45 am The F uture of ISIS Regional and International Implications EDITED BY Feisal al- Istrabadi and Sumit Ganguly BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS Washington, D.C. 00-3216-7-fm.indd 3 04/17/18 12:45 am Copyright © 2018 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Mas sa chu setts Ave nue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 www. brookings .edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or trans- mitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organi zation devoted to re- search, education, and publication on impor tant issues of domestic and foreign policy. Its principal purpose is to bring the highest quality inde pen dent research and analy sis to bear on current and emerging policy probl ems. Interpretations or conclusions in Brookings publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Ganguly, Sumit, editor. | Al-Istrabadi, Feisal, editor. Title: The future of ISIS : regional and international implications / [edited by] Sumit Ganguly and Feisal Al-Istrabadi. Description: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018012373 (print) | LCCN 2018018368 (ebook) | ISBN 9780815732174 (ebook) | ISBN 9780815732167(pbk. :alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: IS (Organization) | Middle East—History—21st century. | Intelligence service—United States. | United States—Foreign relations— Middle East. | Middle East—Foreign relations—United States. Classification: LCC HV6433.I722 (ebook) | LCC HV6433.I722 F88 2018 (print) | DDC 363.325—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018012373 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Typeset in Bembo Composition by Westchester Publishing Ser vices https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode 00-3216-7-fm.indd 4 5/7/18 1:02 PM Contents Acknowl edgments ix PART I Ideology and Externalities 1 Introduction 3 An End to ISIS? Feisal al- Istrabadi and Sumit Ganguly 2 “Apocalypse Soon” 17 Revolutionary Revanchism of ISIS Nukhet Sandal PART II Intelligence Failures 3 Not Your Father’s Intelligence Failure 41 Why the Intelligence Community Failed to Anticipate the Rise of ISIS Erik J. Dahl 00-3216-7-fm.indd 5 04/17/18 12:45 am vi Contents 4 When Do You Give It a Name? 67 Theoretical Observations about the ISIS Intelligence Failure James J. Wirtz PART III Local Actors 5 Syria and Iraq 89 ISIS and Other Actors in Historical Context Kevin W. Martin 6 Islamic State– Khurasan Province 119 Amin Tarzi PART IV Joint Action: U.S. and Regional Powers 7 International and Regional Responses 151 An Appraisal Hussein Banai 8 Regional Constraints on 173 the U.S. Confrontation of ISIS Feisal al- Istrabadi 00-3216-7-fm.indd 6 04/17/18 12:45 am Contents vii PART V U.S. Interests 9 Territorial Havens and the Risk 201 of Complex Terrorist Attacks in the United States Risa Brooks 10 A State, an Insurgency, and a Revolution 223 Understanding and Defeating the Three Faces of ISIS Peter Krause Contributors 247 Index 249 00-3216-7-fm.indd 7 04/17/18 12:45 am 00-3216-7-fm.indd 8 04/17/18 12:45 am Acknowl edgments t is with plea sure that we acknowledge the many individuals and Iorgan izations without whom this book would not have been pos si ble. This book is the result of a conference convened jointly by the Cen- ter for the Study of the Middle East (CSME) and the Center for American and Global Security (CAGS) at the School of Global and International Studies (SGIS) in Bloomington, Indiana, October 7–8, 2016. The con- ference could not have taken place without a contribution from F. Wallace Hays. His sustained and generous support of CSME over the years is greatly appreciated and has allowed CSME to embark on many valuable activities in which it could not have other wise engaged. Thanks are also due to Indiana University Vice President for International Affairs David Zaret, who also provided support, thereby ensuring the continuance of the university’s well- deserved reputation for Hoosier Hospitality. The editors gratefully express their thanks to William Finan, direc- tor of the Brookings Institution Press. His initial interest in this proposal, his help in formulating the questions submitted to each author, his at- tendance at the conference in Bloomington, and his steady encourage- ment over the months have been invaluable. We are also grateful to Janet Walker and Elliott Beard, both at Brookings, and Brian Ostrander, proj- ect editor with Westchester Publishing Ser vices, for the thousand things they did to make the book come together. 00-3216-7-fm.indd 9 04/17/18 12:45 am 00-3216-7-fm.indd 10 04/17/18 12:45 am PART I Ideology and Externalities 01-3216-7-ch01.indd 1 04/17/18 12:46 am 01-3216-7-ch01.indd 2 04/17/18 12:46 am 1 Introduction An End to ISIS? Feisal al- Istrabadi and Sumit Ganguly he Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS throughout this volume) Tseemed to rise dramatically in 2014, taking over Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, in four hours. A frenzy of activity and hand-wringing en- sued, both amongst the ranks of policymakers in vari ous capitals and in the media. Indeed, no major observer of the region, in or out of govern- ment, had seen this rise coming, and U.S. officials, starting with the pres- ident, had been openly dismissive of ISIS while touting what they deemed to be their far more impor tant success against al Qaeda. Yet here was ISIS achieving what al Qaeda had never even aspired to do in the course of its existence: taking over territory through military means from two governments that had previously controlled it. Overnight, ISIS erased the internationally recognized border between Iraq and Syria and pro- claimed the existence of its so- called caliphate and named its amir al- muminin— commander of the faithful—an Iraqi, Ibrahim Awad al- Badri, known by his nom de guerre, Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi. The backdrop to these events, however, was far less dramatic. ISIS had been building for years. Particularly in Iraq, as the Sunni insurgency was 3 01-3216-7-ch01.indd 3 04/17/18 12:46 am 4 al-Istrabadi and Ganguly largely defeated—or at least reduced in size—in the wake of the surge of U.S. troops in 2007 and subsequently, what was then known as the Is- lamic State in Iraq rose to displace al Qaeda. The organ ization that was to become ISIS began to grow and metastasize. ISIS’s leadership initially sought refuge in Syria as the regime of Bashar al- Assad began to lose its iron- fisted control over much of the country, especially in parts of the predominantly Sunni areas. In the meantime, the Baghdad government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki, began to renege on promises made to Iraq’s Sunni population that had been negotiated by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker during the surge, promises to which Baghdad had agreed. As the United States withdrew its forces from Iraq at the end of 2011, many in the Sunni community were seething with anger at Maliki, and a genuine sense of Sunni disenfranchisement began to take root. This sense of disenfranchisement became the vehicle of the initially slow in- filtration of ISIS from across the Syrian frontier back into Iraq, especially in Anbar Governorate, as Maliki sent troops violently to disperse what had largely been peaceable demonstrations. It was this infiltration that set the groundwork for the dramatic rise of ISIS from Mosul southward in June 2014. By then, however, ISIS had controlled significant territory in Syria and had controlled Raqqah, its nominal capital, for two years.