BT2050 Territorial Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region Targeted Research Main Report Version 29/11/2019 1 This targeted research activity is conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The ESPON EGTC is the Single Beneficiary of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The Single Operation within the programme is implemented by the ESPON EGTC and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund, the EU Member States and the Partner States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This delivery does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the ESPON 2020 Monitoring Committee. Authors Luciane Aguiar Borges, Shinan Wang, Gustaf Norlén, Alberto Giacometti, Nordregio (Sweden) Maria Toptsidou, Kai Böhme, Clément Corbineau, Sebastian Hans, Christian Lüer, Sandra Spule and Sabine Zillmer, Spatial Foresight (Luxemburg) Klaus Spiekermann and Björn Schwarze, Spiekermann & Wegener, Urban and Regional Research (S&W) (Germany) Tomasz Komornicki, Piotr Rosik, Rafał Wiśniewski, Denis Cerić, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences (IGSO PAS) (Poland) Advisory Group Ministry of Investment and Economic Development, Department of Spatial Policy Development, PL (Lead stakeholder) Ministry of the Environment, Department of the Built Environment, FI Ministry of Finance, Spatial Planning Department, ES Ministry of Environment, Construction and Territorial Planning Department, LT Federal Ministry of the Interior, Construction and Community, Department Policy Matters, Division G31 European Spatial Development Policy and Territorial Cohesion, DE Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, Spatial Planning Department, LV Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, DE State Regional Development Agency, VASAB Secretariat, LV ESPON EGTC: Sandra Di Biaggio (Senior Project Expert), Johannes Kiersch (Financial Expert), Piera Petruzzi (Senior Project Expert - Outreach), Laurent Friederes (Head of Unit Evidence & Outreach), Ilona Raugze (Director) Information on ESPON and its projects can be found on www.espon.eu. The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This delivery exists only in an electronic version. © ESPON, 2019 Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is acknowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON EGTC in Luxembourg. Contact: [email protected] ISBN: 978-2-919795-33-8 2 Table of Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................... 6 1 Territorial analysis of the Baltic Sea Region ................................................................... 10 1.1 Demography & settlements ............................................................................................. 10 1.2 Economy & territory ......................................................................................................... 13 1.3 Environment: ecosystem services and climate change .................................................. 15 1.4 Governance: institutions and stakeholders ..................................................................... 17 1.5 Looking into the future of the BSR .................................................................................. 18 1.5.1 Main trends impacting the spatial development ...................................................... 19 1.5.2 Unforeseen events: black swans ............................................................................ 20 2 The BT2050 scenarios .................................................................................................... 21 2.1 The Baseline Scenario .................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1 Baseline Scenario assumptions .............................................................................. 21 2.1.2 Overall future development of the BSR .................................................................. 22 2.1.3 The BSR in 2030 and 2050 ..................................................................................... 24 2.1.4 Baseline Scenario - territorial implications .............................................................. 27 2.2 Two territorial scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region 2050 ................................................ 29 2.2.1 Well-being in a circular economy. A RE-mind for a good life .................................. 30 Territorial implications of the ‘Well-being in a circular economy’ scenario ...................... 34 2.2.2 Growing into a green-tech giant. The ecological footprint clear-up ........................ 37 Territorial implications of the ‘Growing into green-tech giants’ scenario ......................... 41 2.3 Analysing the BT2050 scenarios ..................................................................................... 44 2.3.1 The Baseline Scenario and the territorial scenarios ............................................... 44 2.3.2 BT2050 and ET2050 ............................................................................................... 47 3 Policy recommendations ................................................................................................. 49 3.1 Assessment of VASAB documents ................................................................................. 49 3.2 Key integrated actions for the future of the BSR ............................................................. 51 References .............................................................................................................................. 55 List of Figures Figure 1: BT2050 research framework ...................................................................................... 6 Figure 2: Share of energy from renewable sources ................................................................ 16 Figure 3: CO2 emissions, kg. per capita. ................................................................................ 16 Figure 4: Mega-trends, processes, trends and factors ............................................................ 20 Figure 5: Population development in the BSR 2001-2051 ...................................................... 22 Figure 6: Old-age dependency ratio in the BSR 2001-2051 ................................................... 23 Figure 7: GDP per capita in the BSR 2001-2051 .................................................................... 24 Figure 8: Population change by country and territorial typology in the BSR 2016-2051 ......... 27 Figure 9: GDP per capita by country and territorial typology in the BSR 2051 ....................... 28 Figure 10: GDP per capita change by country and territorial typology in the BSR 2016-2051 28 Figure 11: Territorial cohesion in the BSR 2001-2051 ............................................................ 29 3 Figure 12: Population difference to Baseline Scenario in 2050 by country and territorial typology in the BSR, Circular Economy Scenario (left), Green-Tech Scenario (right) ... 45 Figure 13: GDP/capita difference to Baseline Scenario in 2050 by country and territorial typology in the BSR, Circular Economy Scenario (left), Green-Tech Scenario (right) ... 46 Figure 14: Territorial cohesion in the BSR 2001-2050, Baseline, Circular Economy and Green Tech Scenarios................................................................................................................ 47 Figure 15: Framework for policy recommendation .................................................................. 49 List of Maps Map 1: Spatial pattern of population distribution ..................................................................... 10 Map 2: Accessibility Potential, 2016 ........................................................................................ 12 Map 3: Spatial pattern in economy .......................................................................................... 14 Map 4: Interreg and Euroregions CBC in the BSR .................................................................. 18 Map 5: Population development in the BSR, in 2030 (left) and in 2050 ( right) ...................... 25 Map 6: GDP per capita in the BSR, in 2030 (left) and in 2050 (right) ..................................... 26 Map 7: GDP average annual change, 2016-2030 (left), 2030-2050 (right) ............................. 26 Map 8: Decentralised circular economies, Baltic Sea Region 2050: Scenario ‘Well-being in a circular economy.’ ........................................................................................................... 35 Map 9: Regional centres and transport, Baltic Sea Region 2050: Scenario ‘Well-being in a circular economy.’ ........................................................................................................... 35 Map 10: Green-tech giants and global attractiveness, Baltic Sea Region 2050. Scenario ‘Growing into green-tech giants’ ...................................................................................... 42 Map 11: Urban centres, transport and connectivity, Baltic Sea Region 2050: Scenario ‘Growing into green-tech giants’ ...................................................................................... 42 Map 12: Population difference to Baseline Scenario in 2050, Circular Economy Scenario (left), Green-Tech Scenario (right) ...........................................................................................