Submission Document 13.0 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016 Liverpool City Council September 2016 Prepared by GL Hearn Limited Vantage Point Hardman Street Spinningfields Manchester M3 3HF T +44 (0)161 829 7800 glhearn.com Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council Contents Section Page 1 INTRODUCTION 6 2 RETAIL AND LEISURE TRENDS 8 3 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY 16 4 OVERVIEW OF LIVERPOOL CENTRES 20 5 EXISTING SHOPPING AND LEISURE PATTERNS 35 6 THE NEED FOR RETAIL FACILITIES 41 7 INTERPRETING THE RETAIL NEED ANALYSIS 57 8 THE NEED FOR COMMERCIAL LEISURE USERS 70 9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 78 List of Figures FIGURE 1: TOTAL RETAIL SALES VOLUME GROWTH 9 FIGURE 2: TOTAL FLOORSPACE IN DISTRICT CENTRES 23 FIGURE 3: A1 CONVENIENCE RETAIL FLOORSPACE IN DISTRICT CENTRES 23 FIGURE 4: COMPARISON FLOORSPACE IN DISTRICT CENTRES 24 FIGURE 5: DISTRICT CENTRES A1 CONVENIENCE AND COMPARISON FLOORSPACE 24 FIGURE 6: A3-A4-A5 FLOORSPACE IN DISTRICT CENTRES 25 FIGURE 7: OCCUPIED DISTRICT CENTRE FLOORSPACE BY USE CLASS 26 FIGURE 8: DISTRICT CENTRE VACANT FLOORSPACE WITH GB AVERAGE SHOWN. 27 FIGURE 9: TOTAL FLOORSPACE IN LOCAL CENTRES 28 FIGURE 10: CONVENIENCE FLOORSPACE IN LOCAL CENTRES 29 FIGURE 11: COMPARISON FLOORSPACE IN LOCAL CENTRES 29 FIGURE 12: LOCAL CENTRES CONVENIENCE AND COMPARISON FLOORSPACE 30 FIGURE 13: LOCAL CENTRES A3, A4, A5 FLOORSPACE 30 FIGURE 14: OCCUPIED LOCAL CENTRE FLOORSPACE BY USE CLASS 32 GL Hearn Page 2 of 108 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council FIGURE 15: LOCAL CENTRE VACANT FLOORSPACE WITH GB AVERAGE SHOWN. 32 FIGURE 16: STUDY AREA MAP 43 List of Tables TABLE 1: AVERAGE UNIT SIZE IN THE DISTRICT CENTRES 25 TABLE 2: AVERAGE UNIT SIZES IN THE LOCAL CENTRES 31 TABLE 3: MAIN FOOD SHOPPING PATTERNS 2011 AND 2015 37 TABLE 4: AVERAGE MAIN FOOD SPEND 2011 AND 2015 37 TABLE 5: TOP UP SHOPPING FREQUENCY 2011 AND 2015 38 TABLE 6: LEISURE PARTICIPATION RATES 2011 AND 2015 39 TABLE 7: CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS 48 TABLE 8: LIVERPOOL CONVENIENCE PROVISION – MARKET SHARES BY ZONE 48 TABLE 9: CITY CENTRE CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS 49 TABLE 10: CENTRAL ZONE CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS 50 TABLE 11: SOUTH ZONE CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS 51 TABLE 12: NORTH ZONE CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS 51 TABLE 13: LIVERPOOL COMPARISON PROVISION – MARKET SHARES BY ZONE 53 TABLE 14: CITY ZONE CAPACITY 53 TABLE 15: CENTRAL ZONE CAPACITY 54 TABLE 16: SOUTH ZONE CAPACITY 54 TABLE 17: NORTH ZONE CAPACITY 55 TABLE 18: CONVENIENCE UNDERTRADING IN CENTRES AND STORES (£M) 58 TABLE 19: COMPARISON UNDERTRADING IN CENTRES AND RETAIL PARKS (£M) 59 TABLE 20: CONVENIENCE OVERTRADING IN CENTRES AND STORES (£M) 60 TABLE 21: COMPARISON OVERTRADING TRADING IN CENTRES (£M) 61 TABLE 22: LIVERPOOL CONVENIENCE PROVISION – MARKET SHARES BY ZONE 62 TABLE 23: CITY CENTRE MARKET SHARE ADJUSTMENT IN 2033 63 GL Hearn Page 3 of 108 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council TABLE 24: NORTHERN MARKET SHARE ADJUSTMENT IN 2033 64 TABLE 25: LIVERPOOL COMPARISON PROVISION – MARKET SHARES BY ZONE 66 TABLE 26: NEW MERSEY TRADE DRAW 66 TABLE 27: NORTHERN MARKET SHARE ADJUSTMENT IN 2033 67 TABLE 28: LEISURE PARTICIPATION RATES 2015 70 TABLE 29: CINEMA POPULATION IN 2033 72 TABLE 30: LIVERPOOL CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS 83 TABLE 31: LIVERPOOL COMPARISON PROVISION – MARKET SHARES BY ZONE 83 TABLE 32: LIVERPOOL CONVENIENCE SUB SECTOR CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS IN 2033 84 TABLE 33: LIVERPOOL COMPARISON SUB SECTOR CAPACITY PRE AND POST COMMITMENTS IN 2033 88 TABLE 34: SUGGESTED DISTRICT CENTRES 96 TABLE 35: SUGGESTED LOCAL CENTRES 97 Appendices APPENDIX 1: DISTRICT AND LOCAL CENTRES MAP & SHOPPER SURVEY ZONES APPENDIX 2: HOUSEHOLD SHOPPER SURVEYS APPENDIX 3: LIVERPOOL CITY CENTRE GOAD APPENDIX 4: VITALITY AND VIABILITY ASSESSMENTS APPENDIX 5: QUANTITATIVE CONVENIENCE NEED APPENDIX 6: QUANTITATIVE COMPARISON NEED APPENDIX 7: LEISURE NEED GL Hearn Page 4 of 108 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council Quality Standards Control The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance wi th our quality control requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator. This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Business or Associate Director. DATE ORIGINATORS APPROVED September 2016 Phil Robinson Nick Ireland Planning Associate Director Planning Director Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned. GL Hearn Page 5 of 108 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 GL Hearn has been commissioned by Liverpool City Council to undertake a review of the future retail and commercial leisure needs of the City Council’s administrative area up to 2033. The study is to understand how the existing facilities serve the City’s residents and what potential there is to plan for any additional facilities over the study period. 1.2 This Retail and Commercial Leisure Study has as its evidence base a 3,000 household telephone interview survey which sought to establish residents shopping and leisure usage patterns. 1.3 The results of the household survey are applied to current and projected population and consumer spending to establish current and future retail and leisure provision. This analysis is provided on an overall Liverpool wide basis and on a more local ‘sectoral’ basis, examining trade retention levels currently achieved by the City Centre and within the North, Central and South Liverpool areas. 1.4 This information is supported by a series of vitality and viability assessments undertaken in each of the district and local centres identified within the Local Plan. These studies allow the analysis of the role and function of each of the City’s centres and their ability to serve the local community in which they are located. 1.5 With regard to commercial leisure uses (cinema’s, pubs, bars and restaurants, ten pin bowling, health and fitness centres, bingo and night clubs) we have considered existing usage of facilities in the Liverpool area and participation generally and then considered the potential which exists for improving that existing provision. Purpose of Study 1.6 The Study is to provide a quantitative assessment of comparison and convenience goods shopping and leisure uses in Liverpool to meet the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework. The primary purpose of the Study is to provide the evidence base for the Local Plan. The Study will also assist in making informed decisions on retail development proposals within Liverpool and will inform the Council’s response to any retail applications which come forward. 1.7 The Study is to provide a robust assessment of needs across the City and provide sufficient information to ensure that: • Strategic choices about where retail and leisure investment and growth should go can be made • The Local Plan policies comply with the requirements of NPPF • Sites can be allocated to meet any identified needs in accordance with NPPF • Where development proposals come forward, the Study is a material element against which an informed decision can be made regarding the need and appropriateness of the scheme with regard to the established retail and leisure strategy for the City GL Hearn Page 6 of 108 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council 1.8 The purpose of the study is to: • Identify current retail and leisure trends and the implications for Liverpool • Analyse and Interpret existing Policy at national level and consider the existing Local Policy and evidential studies • Consider spatial implications of current and expected changes in shopping patterns both within and outside the City • Identify the potential for growth in convenience and comparison retail facilities within different parts of the City and test scenarios reflecting alternative expenditure retention targets to be agreed with the City Council • Identify the potential requirement for further leisure facilities and what broad locations should any need be located within • Consider the role, function, vitality and viability, mix and potential scope to accommodate development of the City Centre, District Centres and Local Centres and identify an appropriate hierarchy based on these finding and the extent of town centre, primary shopping areas and primary/secondary retail frontages • Identify the appropriate policy approach to managing retail development within centres and consider whether it is appropriate to set a local threshold for the application of the impact assessment • Consider the future role of out of centre facilities within the City and whether there is any justification for their expansion GL Hearn Page 7 of 108 Liverpool Council Retail and Leisure Study 2016, September 2016 Liverpool City Council 2 RETAIL AND LEISURE TRENDS 2.1 This section briefly considerers the main drivers and trends in retail and commercial leisure within the UK. The analysis draws upon a number of published data sources including; Goad Plan data, Experian, BCSC, Family Expenditure Survey and Mintel. 2.2 An assessment of future retail or leisure demand or need should have regard to emerging trends within the industry as these may influence the conclusions of the assessment. The retail sector is one of the most dynamic sectors of the UK economy and is constantly evolving and adapting in response to consumer and lifestyle trends and other market influences.