Common Country Assessment Pakistan 2011 Authors: Dr. Syed Aamer Abdullah Prof. Syed Mansoob Murshed Dr. Arshad Waheed Dr. Farrukh Saleem Victoria Jane Lee Akbar Nasir Khan Rehana Shaikh Dr. Moazzam Khalil 31 January 2012 1 Disclaimer The views expressed in this Common Country Assessment are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations or the United Nations system in Pakistan or any of its agencies. 2 Acknowledgments The authors thank all those who have contributed to this report. The participants of the stakeholder workshops at Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar and Muzaffarabad gave their valuable input to the initial draft of this report. Participants at Karachi and Quetta made it to the consultative session despite great hardships and their participation and feedback are gratefully acknowledged. The support team comprising Mr. Syed Saad Abdullah, Ms. Bazgha Amjad, Mr. Talha Masood and Mr. Shahzad Ali Gill helped the authors to forget about management issues and concentrate on the report itself. We thank them all. The members of the Steering and Technical committees of the UN in Pakistan gave their valuable comments on the draft and participated in marathon discussion sessions. The UN Country Team shared its expertise and guidance, and the authors thank them all. The Office of the Resident Coordinator of UN in Pakistan gave its extensive support to the process. Data, reports and feedback were provided to the team. Dr. Arjuna Parakrama, Mr. Waheed Lor-Mehdibadi and Ms. Shirin Gul deserve our special praise and thanks. We thank Mr. Timo Pakkala, the Resident Coordinator of UN in Pakistan for his keen interest, support and guidance throughout the process. 3 List of Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank ADR Alternate Dispute Resolution ADO Asian Development Outlook AF Aurat Foundation AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir BTI Bertelsmann Transformation Index CAT Committee against Torture CCA Common Country Assessment CCP Competition Commission of Pakistan CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women CNIC Computerised National Identity Card CPI Corruption Perceptions Index CPI Consumer Price Index CPR Contraception Prevalence Rate CRC Convention on the Rights of the Child CSOs Civil Society Organizations DOT Directly Observed Treatment Coverage DRR Disaster Risk Reduction ECP Election Commission of Pakistan EFA Education for All EEA European Economic Area EmONC Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care FAFEN Free and Fair Election Network FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FBS Federal Bureau of Statistics FDPF Friends of Democratic Pakistan Forum FIR First Information Report FY07 Fiscal year 2007 FY08 Fiscal year 2008 GBV Gender Based Violence GCI Global Competitiveness Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrolment Rate GPI Gender Parity Index HBWs Home Based Workers HDI Human Development Index HRCP Human Rights Commission of Pakistan HFs Health Facilities HRBA Human rights based Approach IBGs Identity Based Groups ICCPR International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights ICESCR International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights ICG International crises group IDP Internally Displaced Person 4 IMR Infant mortality rate KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa LHWs Lady Health Workers LG Local Government LOC Line of Control MDGs Millennium Development Goals MEAs Multilateral Environmental Agreements MHHDC Mahboob ul Haq Human Development Centre MMR Maternal Mortality Rate MTDF Medium Term Development Framework NCSW National Commission on Status of Women NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NER Net Enrolment Rate NFC National Finance Commission Award NGO Non-government Organization NEP National Education Policy NPFP& PHC National Program for Family Planning and Primary Health Care NWFP North West Frontier Province OPV Oral Polio Vaccine PBA Pakistan Banks’ Association PCMA Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association PEMRA Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority PILER Pakistan Institute of Labour Education and Research PIPS Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PRSP II Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 2 PSLMS Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey PSMA Pakistan Sugar Mills association RECOUP Research Consortium on Educational Outcomes and Poverty RH Reproductive Heath SBA Stand-By Arrangement SBP State Bank of Pakistan SDPI Sustainable Development Policy Institute TB Tuberculosis TCP Trading Corporation of Pakistan TFR Total Fertility Rate TTP Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan TVE Technical and Vocational Education TVET Technical and Vocational Education Training UNCT United Nations Country Team UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework UNCRC United Nations Committee on the Rights of Children UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund VAW Violence against Women WDI Women’s Development Index WDI World Development Index WFP World Food Programme WGI Worldwide Governance Indicators YOY Year over year 5 List of Figures Page Number Figure 1: Map of Islamic Republic of Pakistan 10 Figure 2: Pakistan Balance of Trade (Million USD) 26 Figure 3: Pakistan Exports 27 Figure 4: Pakistan Inflation Rate Annual Change in CPI 28 Figure 5: FAO Food Price Index 29 Figure 6: Proportion of Population below the calorie-based poverty line 30 Figure 7: Global Food Prices and transmission to domestic prices 31 Figure 8: External and Domestic Debts 32 Figure 9: Global Median Age 35 Figure 10: Pakistan - Age Dependency Ratio of Working- Age Population 35 Figure 11: Structure of Inequalities in Pakistan 40 Figure 12: Structural Inequalities in Pakistan 42 Figure 13: The interplay of Processes, Policies and Consequences 44 Figure 14: Links between Energy and Development 53 Figure 15: Percentage of Energy mix 2007 55 Figure 16: The Cost of Floods 62 Figure 17: Earthquake Hazard for Pakistan 69 Figure 18: Genesis of Conflict in FATA and KP 70 Figure 19: Genesis of Conclict in Balochistan 71 Figure 20: Damages due to natural disasters 72 Figure 21: Pakistan MDG Nutrition Related Targets 81 Figure 22: Time trend in Malnutrition among under-5 Children 81 Figure 23: Violence Against Women 2004 – 2009 99 Figure 24: Voice and Accountability in Pakistan (1969-2009) 107 Figure 25: Voice and Accountability in South Asia 108 Figure 26: Regulatory Quality in Pakistan (1969-2009) 111 Figure 27: Regulatory Quality in South Asia (2009) 111 6 List of Tables Page Number Table 1: Pakistan’s Public Debt 2003 – 2010 33 Table 2: Global Competitiveness Index 46 Table 3: Forest Cover in Pakistan 49 Table 4: Area affected erosion (000 ha) 49 Table 5: External Cost of Pesticide Use in the Major Cotton Growing Areas of Punjab 50 Table 6: Cotton Farm workers' awareness about pesticides 51 Table 7: Cost of Load-shedding 53 Table 8: No. of Conflict related deaths and injuries in KP and FATA 61 Table 9: Population Growth Rates 78 Table 10: Under five Mortality Rates171 78 Table 11: Infant Mortality Rates 79 Table 12: Micro-nutrient deficiency and Food insecurity 82 Table 13: MDG Indicators for Goal 2 85 Table 14: Net Enrolment Rate by Provinces 86 Table 15: Literacy Rate (10 years and above) 87 Table 16: % Literacy Rates: Class, Urban-Rural Residence and Sex 87 Table 17: Missing Facilities in Public Schools 88 Table 18: Missing Facilities in Public Schools Pakistan: Urban/Rural Disparities 2008-09 89 Table 19: Comparison of Public Sector Spending on Education 97 7 Table of Contents Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................... 3 List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 4 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 6 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. 7 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 8 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 11 1 Background and Introduction ................................................................................................ 21 1.1 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 21 1.2 Guiding Principles of the Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis ........................................... 22 1.3 Country Context of Development ........................................................................................................ 22 1.4 Macroeconomic Overview .................................................................................................................. 23 1.4.1 External Sector ............................................................................................ 26 1.4.2 Inflation ....................................................................................................... 27 1.4.3 Food Insecurity ..........................................................................................