ODCCP Studies on Drugs and Crime STATISTICS GLOBAL ILLICIT DRUG TRENDS 2002 UNUnited Nations Office for Drug Control ODCCP and Crime Prevention ODCCP Studies on Drugs and Crime STATISTICS GLOBAL ILLICIT DRUG TRENDS 2002 New York, 2002 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.02.XI.9 ISBN 92-1-148150-3 This publication has not been formally edited. Preface PREFACE At the twentieth special session of the General Assembly in 1998, States Members agreed to make significant progress towards the control of supply and demand for illicit drugs by the year 2008. They noted that this objective could only be achieved by means of the ‘balanced approach’ (giving demand as much attention as supply), and on the basis of regular assess- ments of the drug problem. The aim of the present report is to contribute to such assessments by presenting supply and demand statistics and analysis on the evolution of the global illicit drug problem. Reliable and systematic data to assess the drug problem, and to monitor progress in achieving the goals set by the General Assembly, however, is not readily available. The present report is based on data obtained primarily from the annual reports questionnaire sent by Governments to UNDCP in 2001, supplemented by other sources. Two of the main limitations encountered by UNDCP are that: (a) the reporting is not systematic enough, both in terms of number of coun- tries responding and of content, and (b) many countries lack adequate monitoring systems. The report tries to overcome these limitations by presenting, annually, Estimates of illicit drug Production, Trafficking and Consumption. These statistics form the main body of the report. They are supplemented by a section on Analysis, which focuses on different themes each year. Last year, the Analysis section contained chapters dealing with Clandestine Synthetic Drugs and Main Centres of Illicit Opium Production (Afghanistan and Myanmar). Today, international opiate markets continue to be in a state of flux, a result of the drastic reduction in Afghanistan’s illicit opium production in 2001, and the resumption of production this year. The present report thus continues the analysis of illicit opiate markets, in a chapter on The Impact of Changes in Afghanistan. The difficulties of trying to measure an illicit activity are well known. Although they impose ob- vious limitations on data, it is possible to make reasonable order-of-magnitude estimates. It is highly desirable to do so, because these estimates encourage transparency, stimulate discus- sion and build knowledge. Empirical evidence is the only realistic basis for policy-making. I would like to commend the Research Section of UNDCP for preparing this report which, by pre- senting what we know and by showing what we do not know, contributes to building the know- ledge base for better policy and for better focussed action towards achieving the goals set in 1998. Antonio Maria Costa Executive Director United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention 1 Explanatory Note EXPLANATORY NOTE This report was prepared by the Research Section of UNDCP and has been reproduced without for- mal editing. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its fron- tiers or boundaries. The names of territories and administrative areas are in italics. The following abbreviations have been used in this report: ARQ annual reports questionnaire ATS amphetamine-type stimulants CICAD Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DEA Drug Enforcement Administration (United States of America) DELTA UNDCP Database for Estimates and Long-term Trends Analysis DMT N,N - dimethyltryptamine DOB brolamfetamine EMCDDA European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction ESPAD European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs F.O. UNDCP Field Office HONLC Meeting of Heads of National Law Enforcement Agencies - Latin America and the Caribbean HNLP Meeting of Heads of National Law Enforcement Agencies - Asia and the Pacific IDU Injecting drug use INCB International Narcotics Control Board INCSR International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (United States of America) Interpol/ICPO International Criminal Police Organization LSD lysergic acid diethylamide NAPOL National Police ODCCP United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention PCP phencyclidine UNDCP United Nations International Drug Control Programme UNAIDS Joint and Co-sponsored United Nations Programme on Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome WCO World Customs Organization WHO World Health Organization Govt. Government u. Unit lt. Litre kg Kilogram ha Hectare mt Metric ton 3 Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS . .6 ANALYSIS Global Illicit Opiate Markets at the Crossroads: The Impact of Changes in Afghanistan . .11 ESTIMATES Production Overview . .45 Opium . .45 Coca . .54 Eradication reported . .62 Farmgate prices . .62 Value of 2001 farmgate production . .64 Manufacture . .65 Trafficking Overview . .75 Opiates . .78 Cocaine . .113 Cannabis . .126 Amphetamine-type stimulants . .161 Wholesale and retail (street) prices . .192 Consumption Overview . .213 Opiates . .223 Cocaine . .244 Cannabis . .254 Amphetamine-type stimulants . .260 Primary drugs of abuse . .275 Main problem drugs . .279 Sources and limitations of data . .281 5 Global Illicit Drug Trends 2002 HIGHLIGHTS ANALYSIS • The ban on opium production in Afghanistan in 2001 and subsequent develop- ments in that country have brought global opiate markets to a cross-roads. Although the consequences of the 2001 fall in production were delayed by the existence of large stocks and the resumption of opium production in 2002 pres- ents great challenges to the Afghan Interim Authorities and the international community, many factors create a potential for making significant progress in the control of global illicit opium production. PRODUCTION • Following the ban in Afghanistan, global opium poppy cultivation was reduced by 35 %, from about 222,000 ha in 2000 to about 144,000 ha in 2001. Potential production of opium at the global level went down by 65%, from about 4,700 mt in 2000, to about 1,600 mt in 2001. • In Afghanistan, opium poppy cultivation was down by 91 % to 7,606 ha in 2001 (against 82,171 ha in 2000), and opium production by 94 % to 185 mt in 2001, from 3,276 mt in 2000. The reduction in Afghanistan was not offset by increas- es in other countries. In Myanmar (the largest source of illicit opium during the year, before Afghanistan and the Lao PDR), cultivation and opium production remained relatively stable with 105,000 ha and 1,097 mt in 2001. In the Lao PDR, opium poppy cultivation decreased by 9 % in 2001. • A UNDCP pre-assessment survey in February 2002 showed that opium poppy cultivation has resumed in Afghanistan and could cover from 45,000 ha to 65,000 ha and produce from 1,900 mt to 2,700 mt of opium in 2002, which is comparable to mid-1990s levels. A very large increase in production in Myanmar is not expected in 2002. • Because of a reduction in Colombia and despite relatively modest increases in Peru and Bolivia, there was a net decrease of about 10,000 ha (or 5 %) of coca bush cultivation at the global level in 2001, to about 211,000 ha. In Colombia, after years of continuous increase, coca cultivation was down to 144,807 ha in November 2001, a reduction of more than 18,000 ha, or 11 %, from previous year’s estimates. • Information is lacking to make an assessment of illicit cannabis cultivation at the global level but growing seizures suggest a continued increase. 6 Highlights TRAFFICKING • Heroin seizures increased by 44% in 2000, reflecting Afghanistan’s bumper harvest of 1999. • Cocaine seizures declined by 7% in 2000. • ATS seizures increased by 17% in 2000, reflecting more production and the methamphetamine epidemic in East and South East Asia. • The eleven-year trend (1990 - 2000) shows ATS seizures growing at an annu- al average rate of 28%, compared to 8% for heroin, 6% for cannabis herb, 5% for cannabis resin and 1.5% for cocaine. CONSUMPTION • UNDCP estimates that about 185 million people consume illicit drugs (annual prevalence 1998 - 2000). This includes 147 million for cannabis, 33 million for amphetamines, 7 million for Ecstasy, 13 million for cocaine, 13 million for opi- ates (of which 9 million for heroin). These numbers are not cumulative because of poly- drug use. • The strongest increases recorded in 2000 were for ATS consumption. • At the regional level, opiate abuse remained stable in West Europe and North America, increased in East Europe, Central Asia and Africa, and decreased in South East Asia and Australia. • Cocaine abuse decreased in the USA, but increased, though less rapidly than earlier, in South America, Africa and Europe. • Cannabis abuse generally increased in Europe, the Americas, Africa and Oceania (though there are signs of stabilization in some major markets in West Europe and North America), and decreased in South and South West Asia. • Abuse of amphetamines increased strongly in East and South East Asia and appeared to be stabilizing, after years of increase, in West Europe, as well as in North America. • Ecstasy abuse increased in the Americas, South East Asia and some parts of Europe, and stabilized in other parts of Europe. 7 ANALYSIS Analysis - Opiate markets GLOBAL ILLICIT OPIATE MARKETS AT THE CROSSROADS: THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN AFGHANISTAN 1. The dimensions of the Afghan opiate trade uring the 1990s, and up until 2000, Afghanistan firmly established In the 1990s, Afghanistan Ditself as the main source of the illicit opium and heroin produced, became the world’s leading trafficked and consumed in the world. More specifically, it had become opium producer..