SOMALIA Joint Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment (JMCNA) Round III November 2019 Informing more effective REACH humanitarian action Somalia Joint Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment, November 2019 Assessment conducted in the framework of: Somalia Assessment Working Group Somalia Information Management Working Group Funded by: With the support of: Data collection partners: Action Contre la Faim (ACF), American Refugee Committee (ARC), Concern Worldwide (CWW), Danish Refugee Council (DRC), HIMILO Foundation (HIMFO), International Organisation for Migration (IOM), Islamic Relief, MCA Network, Mercy Corps, Norwegian Church Aid (NCA), Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), Oxfam, Polish Humanitarian Action (PAH), Skills Active Forward (SAF-UK), Save the Children (SCI), Somali Community Concern (SCC), Shabelle Community Development Organisation (SHACDO), Secours Islamique France (SIF), Somali Aid, SOS Children’s Village International, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Women and Child Care Organisation (WOCCA), World Vision, and Wamo Relief, Rehabilitation Services (WRRS), and the Somali Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management. 1 Somalia Joint Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment, November 2019 Enumerator and respondent, during JMCNA data collection, © REACH About REACH REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. The methodologies used by REACH include primary data collection and in-depth analysis, and all activities are conducted through inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. REACH is a joint initiative of IMPACT Initiatives, ACTED and the United Nations Institute for Training and Research - Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNITAR-UNOSAT). For more information please visit our website: www.reach-initiative.org. You can contact us directly at: [email protected] and follow us on Twitter @REACH_info. 2 Somalia Joint Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment, November 2019 SUMMARY Somalia has been experiencing a multi-layered, complex, and protracted crisis over the past three decades; insecurity and conflict continue to exacerbate the effects of periodic natural shocks, such as droughts and flooding. The compound nature of the crisis influences displacement patterns and constrains the availability of resources, while the presence of armed groups severely impedes the level of access of humanitarian actors. The intensity and magnitude of the intractable crisis continue to necessitate short- and long-term humanitarian and development-oriented interventions that are informed by evidence. Consequently, the Office of Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Somalia Assessment Working Group (AWG), the Inter Cluster Coordination Group (ICCG), and the Information Management Working Group (IMWG), conducted the third Joint Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment (JMCNA) in Somalia with support from REACH. The JMCNA aims to facilitate a harmonised response plan at the operationally relevant district level; it relies on the coordinated efforts of partners to encourage joint planning, data collection, analysis and interpretation of results. The ultimate goal of the assessment is to inform partners at the strategic level and the Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) and Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) process. Primary data was collected by means of a household-level survey designed with the participation of the humanitarian clusters in Somalia. Cluster leads outlined information gaps and the type of data required to inform their strategic plans. Key indicators were developed by REACH with the substantive input of participating partners, and subsequently validated by clusters. REACH drafted the household survey through an iterative consultation process with cluster partners and OCHA. It is aligned, as much as possible, with the draft Joint Inter-Sectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF) which serves as a common and structured method for assessing the severity of needs across different clusters. The JMCNA covered 17 of 18 regions, 53 of 74 districts, and 943 settlements; data was collected from a total of 10,487 households. Households were sampled at the district level using stratified cluster sampling with probability proportional to population size, with households living in Internally Displaced Person (IDP) settlements and households living in non-IDP settlements as strata, a 90% confidence interval, a 10% margin of error, and a buffer of 15%. Data was collected between 23 June and 31 July 2019. The main limitations of the methodology remain the inability to access certain areas due to high levels of insecurity, or the ability to access only urban centres in certain districts, which lend an urban-bias towards the results and limit the generalisation of results only to urban areas of districts. The draft JIAF was employed to understand the context and severity of needs in Somalia. Through a desk review, secondary data on drought, displacement, and conflict was used to contextualise the protracted crisis, and interpret findings from the household-level survey. The main drivers of the recurring crises include underdeveloped government and structural institutions, social fractures along clan lines, and limited infrastructure and development. Additionally, economic and environmental instability due to drought, flooding, and displacement, perpetrate the cycles of armed conflict. The aforementioned aspects compound one another as both drivers and effects of the crisis. Additionally, access to humanitarian services is severely hindered by security concerns in the central and southern areas of the country. The multi-sectoral severity of needs in Somalia was assessed through the creation of a composite score, namely, the Multi Sectoral Needs Index (MSNI). The MSNI was based on the draft JIAF, and adapted to fit the Somali context. The MSNI includes 4 categories of severity, ranging from none or minimal needs (severity score 1) to extreme (severity score 4). The MSNI score for each household was captured by means of a decision-tree approach (Annex 10) and is an estimate of the severity of household needs based on their levels of pre-existing vulnerabilities, living standard gaps (LSGs) in each sector, and their reliance on negative coping strategies or capacity gaps (CG). 3 Somalia Joint Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment, November 2019 Key findings At the national level, a total of 13% of households were found to have a MSNI score of at least 3, representing severe or extreme humanitarian needs. Around three-quarters (76%) of households were found to be characterised by a MSNI score of 2, indicating that a large proportion of households across the country live in ‘stressed’ conditions and struggle to maintain basic living standards. In line with expectations, households living in IDP settlements (27%) were significantly more likely to have a severe MSNI score relative to households in non-IDP settlements (11%), indicating an asymmetric distribution in the level of multi-sectoral needs between the two population groups.1 Of all households with a MSNI score of at least 3, 77% had their needs driven primarily by severe LSG in Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL), and/or Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) LSGs, while 12% had their needs primarily driven by severe capacity gap scores. Across the board, needs in FSL and WASH – and to a lesser extent, reliance on negative coping mechanisms – tend to be the primary drivers of high MSNI severity scores. Notwithstanding the severity of multi-cluster needs, the JMCNA data also indicates that a high proportion of both households in IDP settlements and non-IDP settlements have sectoral LSG in nutrition, and shelter and non-food items. At the national level, the primary drivers of high MSNI scores were found to be mostly the same for IDP and non- IDP settlement households, with MSNI scores of at least 3 for households in IDP settlements more likely to be driven by WASH LSGs. However, results at the regional- and district-level indicate that the multi-cluster needs of households in IDP and non-IDP settlements are driven by different factors, and consequentially, the humanitarian response must be tailored to directly address the specific needs of both population groups. The geographic areas with the highest proportions of households with MSNI scores of 3 or above, were found to be concentrated in the southern, central and south-western areas of Somalia. The areas with the highest proportion of all households in MSNI severity categories 3 and 4 include the regions of Bakool (43%), Gedo (31%), Hiraan (31%), Bay (27%), Lower Juba (26%), and Lower Shabelle (17%). The highlighted regions correlate to areas which have been particularly affected by conflict, flooding, and drought, and where access for humanitarian actors remains restricted. Households residing in IDP settlements, as well as displaced households residing in non-IDP settlements, face particular difficulties, as evidenced by the most commonly reported factors influencing displacement decisions. Conflict- and protection-related factors remain the most commonly reported concerns, a trend supported by data from previous rounds of the JMCNA. Of particular importance is the relatively high proportion of households reporting income-generating opportunities and healthcare as important reasons for their decision to re- locate to their current settlement. The JMCNA also included questions focusing on a households’