September 2019 © CCEM Strategies Ltd. Contact: [email protected] REGIONAL DISTRICT OF NANAIMO AND TOWN OF QUALICUM BEACH i FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT – SEPTEMBER, 2019 Table of Contents LIMITATION OF LIABILITY ............................................................................................................................. V COPYRIGHT ................................................................................................................................................ V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................ VI Project Sponsorship ....................................................................................................................................... vi Production Team ............................................................................................................................................. vi Community Representatives & Stakeholders ....................................................................................... vi 01 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Scope .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Limitations .......................................................................................................................................................... 2 APPROACH .....................................................................................................................................3 02 ENGAGEMENT ........................................................................................................................................ 4 03 RISK ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................................. 5 Hazard Identification ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................................................ 5 FINDINGS ...................................................................................................................................... 10 04 COMMUNITY PROFILES .......................................................................................................................11 Geographic Setting ....................................................................................................................................... 11 General Demographics ............................................................................................................................... 13 Age ..................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Cultural Identity ............................................................................................................................................. 16 Language .......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Family and Household Characteristics .................................................................................................. 17 Income ............................................................................................................................................................... 18 Economy ........................................................................................................................................................... 19 05 VULNERABILITY ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................... 21 Social Vulnerability ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Economic Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................... 27 REGIONAL DISTRICT OF NANAIMO AND TOWN OF QUALICUM BEACH ii FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT – SEPTEMBER, 2019 Environmental Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................... 27 Physical Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................... 28 06 CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................................................... 34 07 FLOOD HAZARD ASSESSMENT RESULTS & RISK SCORES ........................................................ 35 Risk Scores ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 Overland Flooding ........................................................................................................................................ 38 Rivers, Lakes, and Stream Flooding ........................................................................................................ 39 Coastal Flooding ............................................................................................................................................ 41 08 RESILIENCY ............................................................................................................................................ 47 Prevention & Mitigation Activities ......................................................................................................... 48 Preparedness & Response Resources ................................................................................................... 49 09 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................ 51 APPENDIX 1. GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS ............................................................................................. 54 APPENDIX 2. HAZARD DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................... 56 APPENDIX 3. HAZARD ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................... 58 APPENDIX 4. THE REGION’S CRITICAL ASSETS OWNED/OPERATED BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND FIRST NATIONS ......................................................................... 59 APPENDIX 5. RESPONSE SERVICES AND RESOURCES ..................................................................... 62 APPENDIX 6. ENGAGEMENT SESSIONS PARTICIPANTS ................................................................. 66 APPENDIX 7. REFERENCES/ BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................... 69 REGIONAL DISTRICT OF NANAIMO AND TOWN OF QUALICUM BEACH iii FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT – SEPTEMBER, 2019 List of Tables Table 1 – Likelihood Scale ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Table 2 – Consequence Rating Scale (Human and Social Impacts) ............................................................. 8 Table 3 – Consequence Rating Scale (Physical and Economic Impacts) .................................................... 9 Table 4 – Population statistics for communities within the RDN .............................................................. 14 Table 5 – Age characteristics of communities within the RDN ................................................................... 15 Table 6 – Household characteristics of communities within the RDN ..................................................... 17 Table 7 – Income of households in the region ................................................................................................. 18 Table 8 – Labour force and unemployment statistics for communities within the region .............. 20 Table 9 – Resource limitations of local community groups ......................................................................... 23 Table 10 – Risk Scores ................................................................................................................................................ 36 Table 11 – Rivers, lakes and streams within the region ................................................................................. 39 List of Figures Figure 1 – Map of the Regional District of Nanaimo ...................................................................................... 12 Figure 2 – RDN population growth ....................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 3 – Population density by municipality and electoral area ...........................................................