WWW.IPPR.ORG Floodgatesor turnstiles? Post-EUenlargementmigration flowsto(andfrom)theUK byNaomiPollard,MariaLatorreandDhananjayanSriskandarajah April2008 ©ippr2008 InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch Challengingideas– Changingpolicy 2 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK Contents Aboutippr........................................................................................................................................... 3 Aboutthisreport ................................................................................................................................ 3 Abouttheauthors................................................................................................................................ 3 Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................. 3 Noteonthedata ................................................................................................................................ 4 Acronymsandglossary ....................................................................................................................... 4 Executivesummary ............................................................................................................................. 5 1.Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7 2.Methodology.................................................................................................................................... 8 3.Background:joiningtheEU.......................................................................................................... 13 4.Thescaleofpost-enlargementmigration..................................................................................... 16 5.Thedemographicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants.............................................................. 24 6.Thespatialprofileofpost-enlargementmigration ....................................................................... 28 7.Thesocio-economicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants.......................................................... 30 8.Migrationpatterns ......................................................................................................................... 39 9.Migrants’motivationsforcomingtotheUK................................................................................ 41 10.Migrants’experiencesoftheUK ................................................................................................. 46 11.Futuremigrationflows................................................................................................................ 48 12.Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 54 References......................................................................................................................................... 57 AppendixA.WRSregistrationsbyregionofemployer2004-2007 ................................................. 61 AppendixB.WRSregistrationsandestimatedcurrentA8stockbylocalauthority ........................ 62 3 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK Aboutippr TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank,producing cutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticandsustainableworld. Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakingintheUK.Through ourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeandprovidepractical solutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues. WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedaspossible, whileourinternationalandmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextendourpartnerships andinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch. ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:[email protected] www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065 ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinApril2008.©ippr2008 Aboutthisreport ThisreportupdatesandsupersedestwopreviousipprpublicationsonEUenlargementandmigration: onepublishedinFebruary2004lookingaheadtomigrationimplicationsofthe2004roundofEU enlargement(Sriskandarajah2004)andanotheronthemigrationimplicationsofRomanianand BulgarianaccessionpublishedinApril2006(DrewandSriskandarajah2006).Astimeandresources allow,wehopetofurtherupdatethisreportinthefuture. Abouttheauthors NaomiPollard isaresearchfellowatippr.SheleadstheMigration,EqualitiesandCitizenshipTeam’s surveyandqualitativeresearch.BeforejoiningipprNaomiworkedatIpsosMORI’sSocialResearch Institute,whereshemanagedpublicopinionresearchprojectsonbehalfofabroadrangeofpublic sectorbodies. MariaLatorre isaresearchassistantatippr.Shehasexperienceinabroadrangeofquantitative methods,econometricanalysisandusinglargedatabases.MariahasworkedwiththeColombian governmentandwithresearchcentresfocusedontheeconomicdevelopmentofthirdworldcountries, particularlyinLatinAmerica. DhananjayanSriskandarajahisdirectorofresearchstrategyatippr,wherehehasworkedsince2004. Healsooverseestheinstitute’sworkonasylum,migration,integrationanddiversity.Dannyhas writtenextensivelyonmigrationissues,particularlypost-enlargementflows,andisaregular commentatorinthemedia. Acknowledgements ThereportincludesdatafromasurveyofmigrantswhohadreturnedfromtheUKtoPolandundertaken byipprinpartnershipwiththeInstituteofPublicAffairs,Warsaw(www.isp.org.pl/?ln=eng).Wewould liketothankJustynaFrelakattheInstituteofPublicAffairsandMichalWenzatCBOSfortheirhelp indesigningandimplementingthesurvey. Wearealsogratefulfortheadviceandinputofipprcolleaguesinproducingthisreport,particularly JillRutter,HowardReedandJaideepShah.GeorginaKyriacoucopyeditedandformattedthereport. Weareparticularlygratefultothesurveyrespondentsandinterviewees,whogavetheirtimetohelp uswiththisresearch. Wewouldalsoliketoacknowledgethoseorganisationsthathavesupportedtheresearchthatinforms ippr’sEconomicsofMigration project,ofwhichthisreportisanoutput:BusinessforNewEurope, 4 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK CommissionforRuralCommunities,CompassGroupPLC,FCOMigrationFund,HomeOffice,and TradesUnionCongress,aswellastheUKForeignandCommonwealthOffice’sMigrationFund,who supportedtheipprprojectThe EmigrationofImmigrants.Apollconductedforthatprojectisdrawn oninthisreport. Theviewsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsof theDirectorsorTrusteesofippr,orthoseoftheprojectfunders. Noteonthedata MaterialfromtheLabourForceSurveyisCrownCopyrightandhasbeenmadeavailablebyNational StatisticsthroughtheUKDataArchiveandhasbeenusedwithpermission.NeitherNationalStatistics northeDataArchivebearsanyresponsibilityfortheanalysisorinterpretationsofthedatareported here. Abbreviationsandglossary A8 TheeightCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEuropean UnioninMay2004(Poland,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia, Lithuania,SlovakiaandSlovenia) A2 BulgariaandRomania,whichjoinedtheEuropeanUnioninJanuary2007 EEA EuropeanEconomicArea,afreetradeareamadeupofthe27EUmember statesplusIceland,LiechtensteinandNorway EU EuropeanUnion IPS InternationalPassengerSurvey LFS LabourForceSurvey Newaccession TheA8andA2memberstatesoftheEU states NI NationalInsurance NiNo NationalInsuranceNumber ONS OfficeforNationalStatistics Post-enlargement MigrantstotheUKfromcountriesaddedtotheEUbyenlargement migrants SAWS SeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme WRS WorkerRegistrationScheme 5 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK Executivesummary TomarkthefourthanniversaryoftheenlargementoftheEuropeanUnion(EU)in2004,ipprhas undertakenamajorstudythataimstoprovideasdefinitiveapictureofpost-enlargementmigration flowstoandfromtheUKaspossible.Thisreportpresentsfreshevidenceonthescaleandnatureof migrationfromtheeightnewCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEUin2004(the so-called‘A8’countries)and,toalesserextent,fromRomaniaandBulgaria,whichjoinedin2007(the so-called‘A2’). Thereportisbasedonnewanalysisofarangeofexistingsourcesofdataonmigrationflows(for example,administrativedataonregisteredworkersandnationalinsurancenumbers,thequarterly LabourForceSurvey,carriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics).Italsodrawsontheresultsofa speciallycommissionedsurvey,believedtobethefirstofitskind,ofPoleswhohaverecentlyreturned fromtheUKtotheirhomecountry.ThereportalsodrawsonqualitativeinterviewswithPolish migrantslivingintheUK. Mainfindings Ourresearchfindsthatthepatternsofpost-enlargementmigrationareverydifferentfromthoseof significantwavesofmigrationtoBritaininthepast.Incontrasttopreviousmigrants,itisfinancially andlogisticallypossibleformigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstatestocometotheUKona temporaryorseasonalbasis,andtoregularlyvisithomewhilelivinginBritain.Oneintenofthose returnedPolesinthesurveyhadbeenintheUKforthreemonthsorlongeronmorethanone occasioninrecentyears.Thefactthatpost-enlargementmigrantsarealreadymovingbackhome supportsthehypothesisfrequentlymadeinthemigrationliteraturethatlowerbarrierstomobilitylead tolesspermanentimmigrationinthelongterm. Someofippr’skeyfindingsinclude: • WeestimatethatthecurrentpopulationofA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKis665,000, anincreaseofaround550,000sinceearly2004. • Polishnationals,byfarthebiggestnationalitywithinthisgroup,arenowthesinglelargest foreignnationalgroupresidentintheUK,upfrom13thlargestgroupinearly2004. • Weestimatethatatotalofaround1millionA8migrantworkershavearrivedintheUKsince